Wow

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Allan's 1st call map is out.

 

Good to see he made me the nexus of all zones.

GFS - plenty of precip there, just need sfc temps to cooperate to make magic

1 minute ago, NCBaBiDoLL said:

 

Looking forward to something. If anything.


.

 

4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

They won't either until much closer to storm time.They do leave the opportunity for it to change. This has to be the 93rd post today that you have said this. The only thing you didn't add this time was the high was in the wrong place and ground temps are too warm. There are many more model runs still to go, this is the south after all and we are still riding the NAM.........for now      

It's ok to be skeptical..  in fact I would encourage it!  Better to learn than booing and hissing at anyone not playing along.  But fingers crossed!

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You might wanna wake up yalls local WFOs down there.  lol.  Although admittedly, I'd wait for a few more runs of the GFS.  We both know how the NAM likes to get precip happy.   But looks like everything is bumping up and there is a real good trend for your region.

Yup... overblown more than likely.  Thinking a general 1-3" with 3-6" maximums east part of the state.  Marginal temps.. wet snow

Middle of the event and it's at or barely above freezing at the surface.  

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The only time I have seen a dramatic leeside minimum was the March 2008 upper level low. Other times it is often overdone on the modeling. 

Ah .. March 09

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

The lee side screw zone is normally confined to that area of NW Burke/Caldwell counties. Just east Blowing Rock as you descend. Normally it doesn't impact Lenoir towards Hickory from my experiences back home.

yup.. just a sliver in that particular area..  trying to recall that storm several years back where it showed up clear as day on the map.

thru 48 hrs.. this shows the downslope min sliver quite well

Here's a loop of that HRRRX output

Nowcasting could be really awesome with this one

Oh this looks like a nice one just N of the I-85 corridor

Still a good NC hit per NAM (N of I-85 that is)

Looks closer to the 0z run

GFS and NAM in agreement

GFS following the same trend keeping more interaction with the s/w

17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Eh, more like highway 70

Yeah, it rides 70 east of Raleigh. Either way its a good trend.  

It's a hwy 64 special

Looks like a winner to me. That's a statewide smacking.

NAM continuing the trend of moving the s/w quicker at 45. More interaction with the polar jet

GFS vort energy leaning further west.. good trends good trends

Did I miss anything?

I ain't impressed.  Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC).  But it could be one of those overperformers... just had one for N GA!

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Wow,  Does the ECMWF look similar int he same time frame?

Not the 0z OP run (12z still coming in) but the EPS is similar with large HP overhead and a weak area low LP off the east coast. Good enough for now.

BTW here is the mean MSLP on teh GEFS at 264 hrs.  Nice overrunning type event here: