Wow

It's a good trend I will say. Hopefully it continues.  

Here is depth at 288 hrs.

16 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I don’t know if you heard but the OP sucked and we have no hope.

Missed you WidreMann

Great split flow pattern showing up on the GFS with HP ruling overhead.  That will give multiple shots of potential storm events as waves roll across.  

Yes the GFS does look good there.  That looks like a long overrunning type event. 

Oh man, pivotal weather now has hi res upper air 6 hr maps for the Euro and soundings in addition to the surface data.  The times are changing.

3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

And before that, we had a decent little event in the western part of the state.

Yep.. actually it was quite a favorable pattern for a couple of weeks prior.  Remember getting 2-3" in Statesville around the middle of the month which slightly tampered the horror of Jan 25 while watching everyone south and east of me get hammered.  Never saw a single flurry that day.

It's way early, but I've got a bit of an eye on the big low expected to slam California around New Years.  Models all over the place with it but possible it digs so far south it leaves a piece behind.  Fingers crossed that we draw in some cold air ahead of it.  Ensembles are showing lower heights over SE Canada/Northeast which would point us in the right direction for cold HP to build in the following week after New Years.  18z GFS pretty close to that, though suppresses it.  

That's all there is to talk about as far as snow chances go in the long range for our area.

GFS @144

If only we had some good CAD in place this would have been an epic winter storm.  

CFS improving... 850mb temp anomalies

Well, well.. look who's back.  Temps on the cusp with retreating HP but still in the game.

18z GFS more phasing at 102.. this one is coming more north

12z GEPS - Ensemble MSLP placements.. big change from 0z.  Want to see the low trend faster to start moving precip up while the HP is in optimal position.

I still think the setup is favorable for a winter storm for parts of the SE based on the overall pattern. Models are still all over the place and usually are with this kind of setup.  The 50/50 low and a cutoff ULL sliding under the Canadian ridge..  it's usually a good outcome.    I think there will be most phasing of the ULL by the time it reaches the SE coast to bring it further up.

20 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I came across a neat product on weathermodels.com. 

Abv avg December in the books more than likely.

I wonder how this would look if the members weren't so perturbed ? 

Actually tracks even further south than the 18z (!) but has a s/w moving across Canada that wipes out the HP.  We'll see what the Euro & UKMET have to say next.  Confident to say this scenario that the 12z shows ain't happening.

Overall the GFS is consistent with the setup.  Good trends. Surface reflection will bounce around.. just seeing the consistency with the upper level is good at this point in time.

24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Wow said this reminds him of 3/09 and honestly, it does me too. That storm was either rain or snow.

Yep.. as far as the main event is concerned with the strong upper low showing up. 

Now, there is a possibility of mixing early on because this setup may have one thing that March 09 did not - a HP ahead of the system thanks to a retreating 50/50 low.  So could very well be a mix to snow for some in the CAD favored areas.

Those EPS members are a good sign - most showing something and a handful showing what a potent upper low can do.  It can drop a foot in 6 hrs.

8 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Just want to point out... 8"+ of snow with over .5" of ice...

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Based on the setup, there won't be much ice out of this.

It's a great setup whoever ends up just north of the upper low track, so yeah based on history an upper low diving this far south it's good for those areas.  Doubt very much it'll dig this far south... 

10 minutes ago, JoshM said:

850s aren't too good, either.

They are marginal as well but the rain/snow line will be determined by the trek of that 850 low.  This is an interesting setup as we don't have a sfc low forming in the gulf..  it's a very suppressed Miller B storm!

Reminds me a bit of March '09.. had a good thundersnow out of that one.

Wow.. digging it wayy down into FL.. lol

Anyhow.. still puts down a nice snow for W half of NC & SW VA

This is an upper low digging far south with a coastal bombing of the SC coast.  This is not an overrunning event.  It'll be marginally cold at the surface.

W NC getting hammered @168 hr

18z so far at 150 hrs looks pretty good at the upper levels... 

Still has the Quebec block and the southern low is digging further south

Yeah that's not gonna happen.  We'll see what the ensembles have to say soon.