Wow

32 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

18z EPS mean temp was a tick warmer than 12z out to hr144 (18z 2/11)

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makes sense. on to 0z.!

meh.. i'm crossing fingers for next week.  i need a foot.

34 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Just did a shot of Captain Morgan with the GFS. good times ahead for 50% of the modeling haha

Heh, I'm having a rum and coke right now.  Funny how we forget that nearly every storm is like this.

better.. vs 6z.  

GFS stepped back some from the 6z craphole.. It has a problem wanting to wrap up the PV too far west .. need to see it more elongated and building closer to the 50/50 benchmark like the Euro and the previous GFS runs (ala the glorious 2/3 18z run).  The Euro actually looks close to that run..

3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

what on earth is the euro parallel. is it a beta thing? i swear sometimes with these new models i feel like im being punked

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+47r2

https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/2020/10/15/News+on+the+next+model+upgrade+-+IFS+cycle+47r2  

Should be fully implemented later this year

Good chance of sig accumulations in the higher elevations. It's just going to be tough further east until that arctic air moves in.

wow i counted 3 separate waves move across as the arctic high pressed in between 2/11 -13.. the whole point of this is there's a strong signal for a widespread southern snow event

I think we need to make a thread dedicated to this run.  Dear God.. it's beautiful.  The 500mb time lapse is absolute perfection.

here ya go wx weenies

yup, i'll take it

The problem with Sunday is the northern wave with accompanying arctic high has trending slower so it only has marginal in-situ sfc cold air to work with so i think it going limit the snow to higher elevations even if the precip from the southern wave makes it up here.

If the northern wave pushed through first it's a different story.. it's all about how fast the HP moves in to determine which southern waves are going to make a big play.

Euro still on board with the second storm.  Check out the HP!

Oh i'm liking the looks of this now with the Euro keeping on track.  Two good shots here.. Ideally, I'd like the first wave to slow and string out to allow a weak wave move across to minimize WAA and have a classic overrunning storm for the mtns & piedmont.  Then top it off with wave #2 which will most definitely be a classic Miller A mover with that strong confluence zone forcing the sfc low to move from the gulf coast up the SE coast.  

18z GFS trending the right direction..

It's been great seeing the Atlantic come back to a sustained seasonal -NAO after several years but then losing the Pacific to lock out the arctic air is just downright insulting.  The last hope here something like this where the PNA ridge finally breaks through...

Oh yeah that look at the end of the Euro run would rival Jan 88 in terms of a cold snow.. NC in the teens and single digits ahead of the storm.

the key here is that SW wave breaking off rather than fully phasing in and dumping everything out west.  that will kickstart a great setup for us.

... then the SW wave kicks out post arctic high...  

nice setup + arctic outbreak behind it

Big ol' bust with the stubborn CAD winning out.  Forecast high of 64 turned to a high of 46.  Just needed to flip those numbers around.

Ok i'm back.  

12 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Told ya so .. . . 

hey i wasn't doubting that.. just that is took all day to actually see it! 

Gigantic flakes coming down

flakes just starting to come down now