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Posts posted by Wow
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Better but matter how far south that surface low goes it's still a Miller B and there's gonna be a changeover to sleet and ice unless the ULL digs far enough south.
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GEFS following the same trend
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Surface reflection is still a mess but the trend is clear
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Out to 60... the ULL is just about where it was at yesterday's 12z run
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Trend loop of the RGEM showing the trend west then trending back east over the past 36 hrs
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ICON trend FWIW
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@78 the SLP is over Mobile AL ...
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Oh yes the 18z Euro is chef's kiss right there. No primary low pushing up the TN Valley and the 50/50 doing its job locking in the HP and keeping this one low and slow.
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A couple more movements like this and would get a lot more folks back in the game.
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Big improvement with the gfs .. less amped with the primary low . The hope is we can erase this trend over the past 24 hrs.
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Gfs finally trended more east/faster with the wave. Need more of this!
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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:
Really? The final output looked a lot worse for snow here.
Don't look at the surface maps
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Want to see it faster or weaker.. too much separation will let the low pull up too early
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ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet
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2 minutes ago, Grayman said:
Dang it. Still a ways to go. Good be a major ice storm for someone
ice is terrible. Don't wish ice for anyone.
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Will need the 50/50 low to flex some muscle to keep this from pulling north too early
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18z GFS a bit further west with the dig of the ULL..
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ICON less dig but weaker... SLP still Miller B but not too strong to wipe out the mid level cold.
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That's a great track for W NC/SC, NW GA verbatim. Nice to see one of these unfold within 120 hrs instead of 240 hrs!
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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm
in Southeastern States
Posted
NAM made a big move east and weaker with the s/w. That's going to tame the primary low. Maybe a Miller A isn't off the table quite yet...