Wow

It all comes down to how much energy gets wrapped into the ULL.  Less is best for GA/SC/E NC.  Stronger ULL will put out more precip but will be more ice/sleet with a stout HP overhead holding in the CAD at the surface.  Still way too early to say. Ensemble means looks like a good average.

Looks like most of the models are picking up on it and looking likely at least some of us are going to get plastered.

Slower and digs further west which will amp it up too much and allow the axis to go negative further west and draw up a ton of WAA east of the ULL.  Needs to back off of that some.

here's a frame at 126 hrs.  just precip but that's a blizzard right there for S VA and N NC

ICON close to popping a secondary GOM low.. not as far SW as the GFS but in that direction. Looks like a good smack for N NC/VA at least

Full blown blizzard conditions over NC, VA. Just an ideal run here.

BOOM

Impressive

I-85 special coming up

Winters more often will be a sea of warm with small islands of cold.  

February will be rockin

NO

On 7/13/2021 at 4:27 PM, magpiemaniac said:

BRB, guys.  Gotta go mow the lawn.

Rain is as rare now as a buckeyefan post without emojis.

verified tapatalk is working again. 

badges are for sissies

The width should be variable now and tapatalk should be working again.

March 93 redux or bust

The ice, as expected, was a bust. 

I think the final wave next Tuesday will the the last chance of a decent SNOW event with the HP in ideal position.

I hate ice.  Give me 35 and rain. Please.

18z gfs is a dumpster fire.  Ridge holds over the east coast.  Who the hell knows whats going to happen

33.0  and snow... hopefully have a decent layer for snowmen with the kids in the morning

it's whitened up well here.  33.1/31 

good stuff

Big flakes in Mooresville.

Snowing in Mooresville

Also - go look back at models runs a week ago forecast for today.  Both the Euro and GFS showed a ridge off the east coast.  I'm pretty confident the cold pattern will return for next week.

43 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Yeah not bad trends at all. Day 7.5 snow as well for much of NC. 

That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out.  Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger...

2/3 18z same time