arlwx12

HOW did that car/grasstopper sneak up on me in South Arlington? At least the streets and sidewalks are still clear.

One listing of closings and delays: Closings

DCA finally went down to 34.

I'd guess a 50/50 mix near DCA. Still melting on cars, though.

meant mixing, Not maxing.

OOH! I think there are actual snowflakes maxing in near DCA!

Snip of the 320 LWX AFD... As of 315am, light snow has been observed over the Alleghenies with light to moderate pockets of shower/drizzle over the Shenandoah Valley. Elsewhere, cloud cover continues to increase with some virga as the atmospheric profile begins to moisten with large scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Precipitation should begin as a mixture of light rain and snow for most, with all snow above around 1500 feet. Expect precipitation to remain relatively light through mid to late morning then turning steadier later this afternoon as the main lift from the trough/coastal low move overhead. Surface temperatures will initially be in the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and should hold in the mid 30s through mid-late afternoon (prior to 6pm). As a result, much of the region will experience several hours of mixed rain and snow "white rain" that won`t accumulate and will largely be unimpactful other than making for wet roads. However, snow will accumulate across the higher elevations (i.e Catoctins, Alleghenies, and crest of the Blue Ridge) above 1500 feet throughout the day. Temperatures will gradually fall later this afternoon and evening as dynamical cooling ensue from the approaching coastal low and upper level trough. The large scale ascent from these features will allow the atmospheric column to cool allowing for the rain/snow mix to transition over to all snow across the forecast region. Temperatures will fall from the mid 30s into the upper 20s and low 30s during this time as the heaviest precipitation moves in Ratios will also climb during this time with 1:1-5:1 ratios outside of the elevations above 1500 feet during the day climbing to 8:1 to 13:1 overnight into Monday morning. Either way expect a wet character to the snow given the high liquid equivalent. This will make it hard to pick up with a shovel (heart attack snow) compared to pushing with a plow or removing with a snow blower. The greatest impact from snow locally is expected later this evening through predawn Monday morning as the coastal low tracks off the Delmarva and the upper axis trough moves overhead. Expect two areas of enhanced snowfall: one with the coastal low that will encompass the western shore of the bay up into the northeast/central MD and another with the inverted trough (or norlun trough) across the Catoctin/Potomac Highlands. In addition to this expect heavy upslope snow/squalls over the Alleghenies given strong north/northwest flow. The first area of enhanced snowfall rates will be close to Chesapeake Bay, where mid- level frontogenetic forcing to northwest of the coastal low will be strongest. Uncertainty remains in how far west this area of heavier snow gets, but most solutions show it only impacting the counties immediately adjacent to Chesapeake Bay in our forecast area (St.Mary`s northward through Cecil). Snowfall rates could approach an 1-2 inches per hour at times in this area between roughly 7 PM and 3 AM. Near blizzard conditions are also possible with gales over the waters and gusts in excess of 30-40 mph. The second area of enhanced snowfall rates will be along an inverted trough axis (sometimes referred to as a Norlun trough) that will extend north to south through north-central portions of the forecast area. Dynamically, this will occur along a low-level trough axis (in the 900-700 hPa layer) where northeasterly winds in response to the developing coastal low offshore converge with northwesterly winds advancing beneath the upper trough. Model guidance remains in good agreement that such a feature will occur, but there is still some uncertainty with respect to the positioning. 00z CAMS have trended slightly west with this features extending from Washington/Frederick counties down through Jefferson/Loudoun/Fauquier counties. Such features typically are very, very narrow in width (likely only 10-20 miles from west to east), and are notorious for producing very heavy snowfall rates. Most guidance shows hourly QPF values of around 0.2- 0.4 inches, which would translate to 1-2 inches per hour of snow. This feature will likely be either stationary or very slow moving over several hours tomorrow evening into early tomorrow night. A narrow band of 6-12 inches could occur as a result. Due to position uncertainty, we spread this enhancement in precipitation out over a slightly wider location than will likely occur in reality. Our current forecast hedges the placement slightly more toward the eastern solution (Washington County to Loudoun County), but has an enhancement over that broader region. This is also why the Winter Storm Warning extends southward in Fauquier Co. and wraps around the DC Metro area. The immediate DC Metro will likely fall within a relative min between these two areas of precipitation enhancement, but will still experience several hours of accumulating snow this evening into tonight. Another localized minimum will be between the inverted trough and the Allegheny Front where downslope flow could diminish accumulations especially in eastern Mineral and eastern Grant counties. Very little in the way of snow may end up falling in the shadow of the mountains just to the east of the Allegheny Front and also in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Snow totals will be heavily elevation and snow rate dependent. With such marginal temperatures in place, a lot of the snow will be lost to melting at lower elevations with surface temperatures above freezing, while higher elevations have lower temperatures and accumulate more efficiently. Snowfall: 2-4 inches is expected in the DC Metro, although there could be locally lower totals at the lowest elevations if warmer temperatures and lighter precipitation rates verify. 4-7 inches is expected along the Bay shore from St. Mary`s northward through Baltimore City, with higher totals of 6-12" from Carroll eastward toward Cecil. Higher totals of 8-16 inches are expected in the Catoctins, where snow will accumulate more efficiently throughout the event. Snow will also accumulate efficiently southward along the Blue Ridge, where a general 6-12 inches of snow is expected. To the west of the Blue Ridge, snow totals will be heavily elevation dependent, with 3-6 inches expected at higher elevations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge, while lower elevations in the Central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands see little in the way of accumulation. A general 1-3 inches is expected at lower elevations along the I-70 corridor to the west of the Blue Ridge, with the exception of near Hagerstown, where they could receive significantly more snow under the inverted trough. For now, that inverted trough area which extends southward from near Hagerstown into Frederick and Loudoun is forecast to receive around 3-6", but as mentioned before, the gradient will likely be tighter than depicted, and the max there will likely be between 6 and 12 inches. In the Alleghenies Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow will linger much longer there throughout Monday within upslope flow behind the departing low. Snowfall accumulations there are expected to reach 6-12 inches by Monday evening. Elsewhere, snow should wind down by mid-morning Monday.

LWX's latest guess for DCA is 2.5. Why? I think it's the temperatures. Latest estimates are 35 at 6 pm, 33 at 9 pm, 32 finally at midnight. Mixed with rain throughout the night, so snow depth may be lower. Of course, things COULD change.

Snip of the 434 LWX AFD... Forecast details: Precipitation is expected to break out from west to east across the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning as large scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough gradually overspreads the area. Precipitation should begin as a mixture of light rain and snow for most, with all snow above around 1500 feet. Surface temperatures will initially be in the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and should hold in the mid 30s through mid-afternoon. As a result, much of the region will experience several hours of mixed rain and snow that won`t accumulate and will largely be unimpactful other than making the roads wet. However, snow will accumulate across the higher elevations above 1500 feet throughout the day. As we move into the late afternoon and evening, a combination of factors will enable temperatures to start to fall. First, we will start to lose solar insolation as the sun angle drops and the sun eventually sets. Second, low-level cold advection will increase as the upper trough approaches from the west and the coastal low intensifies offshore, drawing colder air into the region within northerly flow. Finally, increasing large scale lift ahead of the upper trough and to northwest of the developing coastal will act to dynamically cool the column. This will result in a gradual changeover to all snow from higher to lower elevations through the late afternoon and evening hours as temperatures fall from the middle to lower 30s. The heaviest precipitation locally is expected Sunday evening through the first half of Sunday night as the coastal low tracks off the Delmarva and the upper axis trough moves overhead. Two locally enhanced areas of precipitation are expected within a much broader precipitation shield that will encompass most of the forecast area. The first area of enhanced snowfall rates will be close to Chesapeake Bay, where mid- level frontogenetic forcing to northwest of the coastal low will be strongest. There is a bit of uncertainty about how just far west this area of heavier snow gets, but most solutions show it only impacting the counties immediately adjacent to Chesapeake Bay in our forecast area (St. Mary`s northward through Cecil). Snowfall rates could approach an inch per hour at times in this area between roughly 6 PM and 2 AM. The second area of enhanced snowfall rates will be along an inverted trough axis (sometimes referred to as a Norlun trough) that will extend north to south through north-central portions of the forecast area. Dynamically, this will occur along a low- level trough axis (in the 900-700 hPa layer) where northeasterly winds in response to the developing coastal low offshore converge with northwesterly winds advancing beneath the upper trough. Model guidance is in very good agreement that such a feature will occur, but there is still some uncertainty with respect to the positioning. Such features typically are very, very narrow in width (likely only 10-20 miles from west to east), and are notorious for producing very heavy snowfall rates. Most guidance shows hourly QPF values of around 0.1-0.2 inches, which would translate to 1-2 inches per hour of snow. This feature will likely be either stationary or very slow moving over several hours tomorrow evening into early tomorrow night. A narrow band of 6-12 inches could occur as a result. Due to position uncertainty, we spread this enhancement in precipitation out over a slightly wider location than will likely occur in reality. American model guidance (GFS, NAM, HRRR, 3 km NAM, WRF-ARW, FV3, WRF-NSSL) have this feature occurring roughly from Hancock, MD southward through Winchester toward Front Royal, while most other guidance (Euro, Canadian, ICON, most EPS members) have it occurring from near Hagerstown southward into Loudoun County. Our current forecast hedges the placement slightly more toward the eastern solution (Hagerstown to Loudoun County), but has an enhancement over that broader region. This is also why the Winter Storm Warning extends southward and wraps around the DC Metro area. The immediate DC Metro will likely fall within a relative min between these two areas of precipitation enhancement, but will still experience several hours of accumulating snow tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Another localized minimum will be between the inverted trough and the Allegheny Front. Very little in the way of snow may end up falling in the shadow of the mountains just to the east of the Allegheny Front and also in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Across the entire forecast area, snow totals will be heavily elevation and snow rate dependent. With such marginal temperatures in place, a lot of the snow will be lost to melting at lower elevations with surface temperatures above freezing, while higher elevations have lower temperatures and accumulate more efficiently. The aforementioned heavier snowfall rate areas (closer to the low and near the inverted trough) will help to drive dynamic cooling through strong lifting in the column, thereby bringing cooler temperatures down to lower elevations, and making snowfall accumulate more efficiently. In terms of specific accumulation amounts, a general 2-4 inches is expected in the DC Metro, although there could be locally lower totals at the lowest elevations if warmer temperatures and lighter precipitation rates verify. 4-6 inches is expected along the Bay shore from St. Mary`s northward through Baltimore City, with higher totals of 6-12" from Carroll eastward toward Cecil. Higher totals of 8-16 inches are expected in the Catoctins, where snow will accumulate more efficiently throughout the event. Snow will also accumulate efficiently southward along the Blue Ridge, where a general 6-10 inches of snow is expected. To the west of the Blue Ridge, snow totals will be heavily elevation dependent, with 3-6 inches expected at higher elevations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge, while lower elevations in the Central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands see little in the way of accumulation. A general 1-3 inches is expected at lower elevations along the I-70 corridor to the west of the Blue Ridge, with the exception of near Hagerstown, where they could receive significantly more snow under the inverted trough. For now, that inverted trough area which extends southward from near Hagerstown into Frederick and Loudoun is forecast to receive around 3-6", but as mentioned before, the gradient will likely be tighter than depicted, and the max there will likely be between 6 and 12 inches. In the Alleghenies Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow will linger much longer there through the day Monday within upslope flow behind the departing low. Snowfall accumulations there are expected to reach 6-12 inches by Monday evening. Elsewhere, snow should wind down late tomorrow night through mid-morning Monday.

Blizzard warnings for VA Eastern Shore... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 VAZ100-220345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.260222T1500Z-260224T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260224T0000Z/ Northampton- 242 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph. * WHERE...Northampton County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. Call 511 for road information. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 VAZ099-220345- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.260222T1500Z-260224T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.BZ.W.0001.260222T1800Z-260224T0000Z/ Accomack- 242 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph. * WHERE...Accomack County. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branche

Also a blizzard warning for parts of DE/PA... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ002-NJZ017>019-021-220800- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ Kent-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Including the cities of Moorestown, Glassboro, Dover, Cherry Hill, Mount Holly, Millville, and Camden 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 14 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...In Delaware, Kent County. In New Jersey, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Northwestern Burlington Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Snip from the latest LWX AFD... Winter Storm Watches have been expanded along the remaining western shore of Maryland given a slight westward progression amongst the guidance. Overall the 00z model suite remains fairly consistent on the track of low pressure from the southeast U.S later today and off the Carolina coast tonight before shifting north toward the Delmarva coast Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Some questions remain in how close to the coast the low pressure system is and it`s interaction with an inverted trough that looks to set up in the vicinity of the area Sunday evening into Monday. The 00z Canadian and European solutions continue to trend a little closer to coast with the low pressure system similar to the NAM/GFS counterparts. Even with that said, the low still remains 200-400 NM away from Washington DC and Baltimore, pulling the bullseye of substantial snow toward areas east of the I-95 corridor. Precipitation is expected to develop across the area predawn Sunday morning on the north side of developing surface low pressure to the southeast. It should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as the low-levels will be too warm. In addition, the precipitation intensity initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas or at high elevations above 1500 feet. Most of the Sunday should be wet with a snow/rain mix falling at temperatures around 34 to 38 degrees. Any impactful snow (especially to road surfaces) looks to hold off until late Sunday evening into Monday morning. Lows Sunday night into Monday will fall close to freezing with teens and 20s over the mountains. This is when low pressure deepens off the coast and the upper level trough/inverted surface trough swings through. The wild card here is the interaction between these features with most of the guidance showing a narrow corridor of strong lift between central/northern MD down through northern VA and into the VA northern neck. This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with respect to QPF according to the latest 00Z EPS/GEFS ensembles with QPF amounts generally around three quarters of an inch liquid equivalent. While snow ratios will likely BE lower than normal (less than 10:1 especially to start), potential banding may offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning as colder air pushes in. General model consensus remains at a widespread 2 to 5 inches of snow along and north of I- 66/US-50 with lesser amounts in the Shenandoah Valley/central VA Piedmont and higher amounts along the western favored slopes of the Alleghenies as well as east of I-95. The probabilities for 4" of snow remain between 60 and 80 percent over the Alleghenies/crest of the Blue Ridge with 40-50 percent probs further east into the metro areas. These numbers come down into the 35 to 45 percent range for 6" with the highest percentages over the mountains and east of the I- 95 corridor. Any wiggle in track and placement of the inverted trough could move the needle up or down for these totals. Given the variability any warning or advisory decisions will likely be made on the day shift today or at the latest this evening. The snow will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW winds 25-40 mph) will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere, light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope flow will continue to generate snow showers. Highs Monday warm back into the mid 30s and low 40s outside the mountains. Overnight lows Monday night fall back into the teens and low 20s and cold air advection returns in the wake of the system.

First guesses from the DC-area TV stations: Channel 4: EURO 2.2 (for downtown) Channel 5: 3-5 (more to the east) Channel 7: Graf 2.0, Euro 2.5, NAM 6.2, GFS 13.0 Channel 9: 2-6 (more to the east)

Snip of WX;s300AFD: Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, north central and northeast Maryland, and the Catoctin Mountains for Sunday into Monday. Gale Watch has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay and the lower tidal Potomac River. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the area Sunday into Monday. No notable changes were observed with the 12Z guidance with respect to the low pressure fcst to develop off the NC coast Sunday with the GFS remaining on its world and the Canadian and ECMWF models showing similar scenarios. While the Canadian and ECMWF models trended a little closer to the coast with the position of the low center, they still remain a good distance from Washington DC, roughly 300 nm, so that the sweet spot of this storm remains far east from our area. Precip is expected to develop across the area Sunday morning on the north side of developing sfc low pressure to the southeast. It should be initially fall as rain or rain/snow mix as low- levels will be too warm. In addition, the precip intensity initially will be light, so that any snow that falls will have a difficult time accumulating on roads other than grassy areas or at high elevations. Most of the day Sunday should be like that with snow falling at temperatures around 34 at light intensity. Sunday night, upper level trough will be digging across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states and provide strong lift to generate widespread light to moderate snow. The best low-level and upper level forcing will be focused across the area of northern central and northeast MD along an inverted-trof axis. This area seems to have the least amount of uncertainty with respect to QPF according to the latest 12Z EPS ensembles with QPF amounts generally around half inch liquid equivalent. While snow ratios will likely lower than normal, potential banding may offset lower ratios and more marginal temperatures. The snow will likely continue through Sunday night before tapering in intensity or exiting the area around daybreak Monday. Gusty NW winds will follow Monday in the wake of the storm. Elsewhere, light snow is expected Sunday night tapering off after midnight from west to east, except in the mountain areas where upslope flow will continue to generate snow snowers.

OOH! GMA3 featured the prospect of a noreaster from DC to Boston! ((as a warminista,. hoping this means DCA gets 2 inches on car tops...))

LWX's latest list of WSWs... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 MDZ509-510-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-210115- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T0600Z-260223T2300Z/ Western Garrett-Eastern Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant- Western Pendleton- 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Eastern Garrett and Western Garrett Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 VAZ507-508-210115- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.260222T1100Z-260223T1100Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 1204 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or more possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Central Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ LFR URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1131 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 PAZ074-076-WVZ510>514-210315- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/ Higher Elevations of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker- Including the cities of Donegal, Ohiopyle, Kingwood, Ligonier, Champion, Hendricks, Bruceton Mills, Terra Alta, Davis, Thomas, Canaan Valley, Coopers Rock, Rowlesburg, Parsons, Saint George, and Hazelton 1131 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...An extended period of snow for high terrain. More than 6 inches of snow is favored for Sunday through Monday. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Highest accumulations are most likely for grassy surfaces in the high terrain. Snow totals may vary largely from valleys to ridgetops. Snow most likely to stick to roads and sidewalks Sunday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Milcarek URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Charleston WV 1126 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 WVZ027-028-030-032-039-040-515>526-210300- /O.NEW.KRLX.WS.A.0004.260222T0600Z-260224T0000Z/ Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh- Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster- Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph- Southeast Randolph- Including the cities of Grafton, Beckley, Philippi, Craigsville, Sophia, Webster Springs, Bradley, Weston, Cowen, Holly River State Park, Richwood, Belington, Marlinton, Harman, Burnsville, Clay, Oak Hill, Birch River, Sutton, Elkins, Montgomery, Gassaway, Buckhannon, Snowshoe, Meadow Bridge, Summersville, Prosperity, and Fayetteville 1126 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, northern, and southeast West Virginia. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. During lake effect snow, the weather can vary from bands of locally heavy snow to dry weather just a few miles away. Visibilities can also vary greatly. Be prepared for rapid changes in weather, visibility, and road conditions. && $$ ARJ

The next AFD should be out a bit before 4 pm.

Slightly updated wording from LWX's AFD at 1029... If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall scope of the precip shield pending the placement/intensity of the system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing little to no wintry precip or impactful precip, especially for those east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from the event. Three scenarios remain: 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for at least advisory to perhaps warning level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also be filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

I'd be surprised if any watches get issued before the 00z runs. Maybe after the 12z runs tomorrow?

I have my doubts about the totals at DCA. Currently, the lowest forecast temperature is 33 degrees at 7 am Monday. If the forecast temperature goes lower, I'll reconsider.

The 344 LWX snip... Unfortunately, the 12z model suites did nothing to help try to nail down a particular solution. On one end with the GEFS ensembles, we have seen an upward trend snow probabilities. However, in the latest EPS, the probabilities have dropped for portions of the area. Looking just at 3" snow probs in this timeframe, EPS dropped around 5-10% on average, while the GEFS jumped up significantly. The 12z Canadian ensembles also trended down, and by a good bit more than the EPS. I think this may ultimately translate to a net-zero change when it comes to the afternoon run of the NBM, but it will take some time to get that information, which may be elaborated more in the evening discussion. As described above, there are a substantial number of very complex variables at play here, and all of them have to come together at just the right time in just the right place in order for us to get snow, and especially significant snow. At present, there are three scenarios at play here. 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. Exactly how all this occurs will be the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. We are firmly in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. Lastly, no matter what plays out further east, it seems much more likely that the mountains will see another round of upslope snow. The key here will be with how much we manage to get. That will depend on the storm track as well, but it seems much more likely for at least advisory level accumulations through the Sunday/Monday period along/west of the Allegheny Front. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type.

LWX still up in the air at 1029... (snip) KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend, followed by colder than normal temperatures early next week. A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for late this weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. The 00Z ensemble suites (European, GFS, Canadian, Euro AIFS) all now have at least some snow across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This continues the trend toward higher QPF/snow amounts in the last 3-4 model cycles. Still, the spread remains quite large with many ensemble members indicating little to no snow, while others do show significantly higher amounts. There are several variables at play here that likely won`t be resolved with much more clarity for another day or two. This will determine the difference between a couple of strung out waves passing through with little fanfare, a modestly impactful period of snow showers, and a more significant wintry precip event. Of note, the higher sun angle later in the season becomes a factor especially for lower elevations if precip occurs during the day. Cold air will also filtering into the region as the storm in question approaches, rather than being locked-in beforehand, which offers another layer of uncertainty in p-type. Regardless of exactly how the details of the Sunday-Monday system play out, another shot of below normal temperatures is favored for early next week. Currently, high temperatures in the 40s (30s in the mountains) with lows in the 20s (teens in the mountains) are forecast through Tuesday night, with some midweek moderation after. (snip)

In my opinion, this is another reason to NOT get involved with social media.

Foggy in Arlington. Easily under a mile, maybe a bit over half.

Snip from LWX's latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure tracking nearby brings a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area this weekend. Further cold advection will take place Sunday as a trough dives across the Great Lakes. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows dropping near or below freezing. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southeast Sunday before deepening and tracking offshore towards New England Sunday night into Monday morning. This low pressure system brings increasing precipitation chances and a slight winter storm threat to the forecast area on Sunday. Models continue to show a wide range of solutions with uncertainty dependent on the strength, track, and timing of the low pressure system. Precipitation will likely begin as rain Saturday night into Sunday morning with snow mixing in overnight. With marginal temperatures throughout the day, the current forecast has a rain/snow mix likely throughout the day with precipitation type becoming primarily snow as temperatures fall Sunday night. Confidence in accumulating snow remains highest in the Alleghenies where temperatures are more favorable, although global guidance continues to show some degree of accumulating snow further east. There has been some increase in the probability of minor impacts via WPC`s probabilistic WSSI. With this event being 4 days out, there remains plenty of time for any variable to change and thus greatly altering the forecast. If this threat materializes, travel disruptions are possible but we will continue monitoring as this event gets closer.