RU848789

0Z NAMs not bad - key message is that there will be some bands - where the 1"+ amounts will be is a crapshoot, of course...

Any snow reports from Cape May? Looks like they've had a few decent spells of snow on the radar...

Party time, sign me up - and it's our monthly poker night and this month it's at my house in Metuchen (we'll hit 40 years next year), so even better!

Latest RAP saves us, lol, although it is interesting to note that the meso models are a bit more bullish for the Philly-NYC area (1/2-1" for most) than the globals (0-1/2" for most. 1/2" would be nice, but so would an overperforming 1", given how this storm has turned out.

I get the disappointment in the season, but at the same time I've had 12 measurable snowfalls totaling 16", albeit 4 of them were <1" and 6 of them were 1-1.5", with only 2 of them in the 3-4" range - but all of them made it look wintry for at least a few hours to a day. Have had at least a bit of snow coverage much of the winter post 12/20, as it's been cold, preserving the small snowfalls. If we can get another 1" tomorrow and a couple of 3-4" storms before the winter is over, I'm up to about normal.

NAM 12Z ULL snows from about 4 pm to midnight put down 0.5-1.0" for most and even over 1.0" for some...it's at least something...

Similar to 18Z for inland areas, but a lot more snow for SENJ and far ELI. Just need the ULL to connect more to the low via an IVT to get those 1-2" amounts in NEPA to make it through NJ/NYC. I would guess we'll see a lot of movement in those ULL blobs/bands of snow NW of the NJ coast and ELI. Congratulations Cape May and Montauk, lol.

If you end up being right about the ULL-IVT driven minor snowfall all along, we'll all owe you big hugs! Salvaging an inch of powder out of this debacle would still be very nice.

5.5" according to this site; also saw their snowiest winter was 42" in 1980. https://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/virginia/virginia_beach

That graphic makes it look like the asteroid is the size of Saudi Arabia, lol - it's actually 177 feet across. Not sure if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall will still be around to save us...

18Z RGEM almost identical to 12Z and presents a much more believable general area-wide snowfall from the ULL of 0.5-1.5" of pure powder, with a bullseye on NYC and is fairly similar to the 18Z NAM with the ULL snows - and both show hints of an inverted trough reaching westward from the coastal low to the ULL. I could see someone getting a few inches wherever the best bands set up.

Not surprisingly, the CMC looks a lot like the RGEM with the ULL blossoming and the coastal not that far offshore anymore...would at least be nice to get an inch or so of pure powder...

This is essentially what Walt has been talking about, i.e., 1" or so for most from the ULL...although the heavier coastal precip isn't that far away...

Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch.

Waiting for Walt's daily morning post and hoping he still sees some way of getting >1" for NYC metro...

The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the ULL, while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again. We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although their 1 in 10 chance high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still 42+ hours away from the "event" starting time)...and their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone.

This is the 19Z BOM I'm sure he was referring to at 7 pm...I would kill for that, lol, but I'm sure it's heavily weighted towards the NAM and SREFs, which are also bullish. The NWS often follows the BOM at least early on, but clearly they are not right now, with less snow forecast, which is understandable with nada from the GFS, UK, CMC, etc (other than the 1/2" or so now showing up on some of the models for nearly everyone, presumably due to the upper level low).

and the IVT

Except for 12Z Saturday when it showed 0.5 QPF right along 95 (so 6"+ with ratios along 95 with ratios and 7-10" towards the coast), which is at least a significant hit (4-8"), so not sure on your definition of "hit." Certainly not "major" (8-14" is my definition of major).

My cutoff time has been 0Z tonight, so I'll wait a little a little longer before declaring the patient dead, plus I take seriously Walt's input here, as he's been rock solid on not going big early when many did, but also sticking with his few inches forecast, still, so while I'm pretty certain anything beyond 2-4" is dead for the 95 corridor I still think it's possible we could have a 1-2" event (and an outside shot at 2-4") instead of a complete whiff (which is also obviously possible given the models). So, I'm still following everything, but at a distance...

In hindsight, it looks like the Euro-AI model scored a significant modeling coup, as it never showed a major (8" or more - my definition) snowstorm for our area, unlike almost every other global model all of which showed at least a few runs with major snowfall. The Euro-AI had most runs in days 4-7 showing a minor to moderate hit with one run on Sat 12Z with significant (4-8", again, my definition) snowfall, but not major. Out of the rest of the models, the GFS was close to the Euro-AI, only showing one major snowfall run, also on 12Z Sat. The Euro, UK and CMC all had multiple major snowfall runs for our region in that timeframe (including some historic runs). So still a significant failure for the AIFS/GFS but an epic failure for the Euro/UK/CMC. IMO.

Here's the 2.5 day trend of the NBM since Saturday at 12Z (every 12 hours), showing how the NBM can be very misleading in trending situations, due to its time-lagged nature. I think everyone here knew this storm was mostly toast by yesterday at 12Z, but the NBM was still showing 6"+ for the 95 corridor with a bit less NW and up to 9" at the NJ coast. And it just showed <3" for the 95 corridor at 12z today. I think it's a useful tool when models aren't trending one way or another, significantly, but has been useless for this event.

We still have 1/2" to 1" on our lawn. That 0.6" of QPF that squeezed into 1.5" of snow/sleet/slush last Saturday and became a 1.5" dense concrete ice pack has had staying power, moreso than the 3.1" of snow that fell on top of it this past week.

2nd post...

Just wanted to memorialize the complete modeling failure for the Euro, GFS, CMC and UK models from 12Z Saturday to 0Z Monday, from major/historic snowstorm to essentially nada (need 2 posts for this due to size issues). I don't recall a faster implosion in the last 15-20 years, as the axis of heaviest snowfall shifted 150-250 miles over 36 hours in this case. Even Jan-2015 went from a forecast of 18-24" for most in NJ (and there was not model consensus on the high snowfall forecasts 12-24 hours before that event) to several inches for most of NJ, which is at least not a complete miss (and yes I know this one isn't 100% over yet, but it's close). March 2001 might be worse at least for me, as we had a forecast of 1-2 feet and got maybe 1" in CNJ. The only saving grace, kind of, is that it happened between 4 and 3 days out, which is a little less painful to me than having an actual forecast for a big storm and getting shut out.