RU848789

That's a 100+ mile QPF field shift in 24 hours by the Euro, looking at the 0.1" line for Sunday's event and it's a ~200 mile shift in the 0.5" QPF line (maybe as much of being more amped as a "move" but that's the result). Getting close to the AI models and the snowier globals.

This may be the run that wakes up the NYC media and the NWS, if we see it duplicated at 12Z. I don't think those sources trust the much snowier AI models yet and with the Euro/GFS having not been very snowy for the last many runs, they're admittedly skeptical. Fascinating battle, really.

What I find most interesting (especially psychologically) is that if there were no GFS model (and is there, really? lol), we'd be looking at the 0Z/6Z situation differently with improvements on the AI models a nudge NW for the Euro (if still mostly a miss), decent RDPS/GDPS and a less snowy ICON and thinking 1-2" might be a decent middle ground guess right now (as per the NBM) - which I'd take in a heartbeat.

Winter isn't some character in a movie that "shows cards." First 6 days of Jan were well below normal, next 8 were well above normal and from today through the end of January looks to be well below normal with numerous snow chances, as reflected by the EPS/GEFS/CMC/AIFS ensemble means, plus Sunday isn't dead yet.

Agree that the ~1" or so seen on most models for Saturday is likely white rain, at least for 95 and the coast, especially with light snow falling during the day (sun angle ain't zero), with maybe some accumulation on colder surfaces if we're lucky. And Sunday is all over the place, although the AIFS, in particular has been pretty consistent for many runs and it has the best model verification scores recently, albeit for 500 mbar predictions and not snow, per se - although it never bit much on today's "snow" a few to several days ago.

So, just woke up and saw that there were only a handful of posts for 6Z relative to the dozens at 0Z, which told me that the threat must have been reduced and the GFS must have caved as the very snowy outlier and we'd have a 1-2" threat at best (and similarly, that there had not been a thread created for this thread on 33). Not far off, lol - and I'll still take 1-2", hoping the Euro/GFS/ICON are wrong in showing very little except maybe <1" for the coast and the AI models have it right with a 1-3" event (AIFS) or even a 3-5" event (AIGFS, if the surface temps are too high on that model as many have said). Not ready to believe the nice RGEM/RRFS at the end of their ranges yet (or the snowless NAM - same reason).

Yes, but temps are AOA 32F for 95 and the coast while it's snowing and this is during daylight hours with light to moderate rates, so accumulation will be tough.

Nice to see the GFS and CMC looking much snowier for Sunday night/Monday and with nice cold air in place, whereas for most, Saturday's light snows will be falling at or above 32F, so accumulations will be tough to come by, especially with light intensity during the day. But flakes are still flakes, lol.

Around 12/27 or so this board and other boards and a host of heavyweight professional meteorologists were posting (somewhat giddily by some) about how amazing the pattern looked for cold and probably snow for the next 2+ weeks. Most of the good ones said this simply increased the probability of snow, but was no guarantee of it, as predicting that far in advance always comes with significant uncertainty and such patterns don't always verify. And unfortunately most of us got some pretty cold weather for a week or so and then saw a warm-up that hasn't quite ended yet and very little snow. I'm not posting this to be critical, but I am curious what some of our pros/trusted folks would say about the level of confidence they might have for what looks to be a cold and potentially snowy pattern ahead for the last week in January and maybe beyond vs. the level of confidence they might have had back in late December.

Actually, that was all from one storm from hour 252 to 300. Insane storm.

And that GFS run has it getting a bit chilly in the wake of the snow. NYC just misses below 0F. Last time was 2016 (-1F) and before that it was 1994. Just so rare these days.

I'm sure I'll see this in my FB feed in about an hour. I'll post these here for fun, but never on FB...

It might have been me, lol. All kidding aside, I'd way rather be surrounded by a lot of snow in the long range than see no snow on the long range, as we all know ensemble means 10+ days out will change substantially.

I know ensembles are the way to go beyond Day 7, when most of the snow on this AIFS map falls, but c'mon, you have to at least chuckle at this map if you live in the big cities.

Not sure I've ever seen a larger discrepancy between an Op and its ensemble mean (although the Op posted here is Kuchera, so it's likely inflated).

People do realize that making a thread on an "event" early has no bearing on how that event pans out, don't they? It only impacts how posters react to the outcome from that event. I like early threads, simply because it makes it easier to keep all the relevant posts on that event in one thread, as opposed to having them dispersed throughout other long range posts. Just my $0.02.

Nice increase on the EPS ensembles over the last 48 hours (thru the same end time). We're finally starting to see some snowstorms pop up and disappear, but that's better than nada we've had for awhile.

When almost every Op model and every ensemble mean for the past few days has been showing well below normal snowfall over the next 15 days for the 95 corridor (and even inland), despite what looks to be a more favorable pattern after the coming 4-5 day warm-up this week, it's hard to not be a bit concerned that the first 3 weeks in January will be well below normal in snowfall. Hopefully that changes soon.

Damn, missed it - we got 1/4" overnight. Was awake and watching TV most of the time it was snowing (12-3 am per the radar), but never looked outside or on-line, lol. With 1.0" the past 2 mornings, we're up to 11.2" for the season.

Ice? Was able to broom this light powdery snow off very easily.

Ended around 7:00 am with 0.75" otg at 26F as the temp dropped from 32F at the start - pretty amazing little squall line. Brings me to 11.0" on the season, which is a fantastic start. First is a pic at the height of the initial squall, followed by a pic after it was all over; will try to post a clip too...

Started at 5:45 am was light for a minute or two, then boom the wind kicked in and the snow got moderate to heavy for the next 10 min, then we had a 5 minute lull then another heavy band until about 6:30 am; lighter now, but not over looking at the radar; 0.6" so far. Gorgeous. Pics to come.

Squall warning up - looks like fun...

Snowing lightly now

Radar looks great, but it's virga, as no flakes yet...I'm at the intersection of 287 and the NJTPK, under 10-20 dBZ