RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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So far, the NAM, NAM3km, RRFSA, ICON, HRW-FV3, RGEM and HRRR are all a bit snowier than 6Z, solidifying the likely 1-2" (with 3" in some areas where the best banding sets up) from Philly-Toms River up to a bit N of 80, IMO. Hopefully, we see the same for the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC and the AI models.
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Some of us are already above average (29.7"). :>)
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The 18Z RGEM just showed the most snow it has showed this week. Much more likely that it's catching up to this being a minor event than "leading the way" in any way.
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Someone should analyze the variance we're seeing run to run across each model. It's rare to see it this high with models going both up and down like rollercoasters - just look at the 12Z/18Z RAP and NAM. It kind of reflects who exquisitely sensitive this setup is to fairly minor variations. This might be where an NBM is the way to go - if I had to make a forecast map it would look a lot like the NBM with 1-2" for most and maybe some spots up to 3".
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Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...
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Could be, as currently modeled, although there will also be a rain/snow line somewhere south 195 and if this amps too much that line could move into CNJ.
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Wrong. If snow can stick at 34F in April with heavy rates at midday, it can stick with moderate rates at 34F at night.
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Almost all of the AI models (AIFS, AIGFS, Weathernext) support at least a 2-4" event area-wide, so while the GFS may be on steroids (like the GRAF), this support plus the fact that almost every other model not from Canadia now shows a 1-2/1-3" kind of event (NAM3km, NAM, ICON, UK at least) tells me that a 1-3" event is now a reasonable guesstimate with 3-6" on the table and <1" still on the table too. A miss/scrape is a bad call right now.
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UK with significant improvement in snowfall at 0Z, like most models so far...
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Just got home - holy crap, GFS! And the ICON and 3km NAM were decent too. I'll still take 1-3", but the GFS and AIFS make me want more, lol.
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Tons of professionals use IBM's GRAF model - not sure what your issue with it is. I wish Pivotal/TT and others had it and Weathernext (Google's AI model) available.
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AIFS not as robust, but still a nice hit...
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In case folks didn't see the big snowstorm on the GRAF; courtesy of Jeff Berardelli... https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022432636526883311
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Even the UK is waking up at least a little...
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I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.
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Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms. Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April.
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Well, most of NNJ/CNJ (along/N of 78)/SENY just got some freezing rain over the last couple of hours, so those advisories were well placed. Everything here is coated with a thin glaze of ice, although salted paved surfaces are fine, but unsalted ones are a bit slick and probably worse along/N of 78 where more freezing rain fell. Temps don't go above 32F for most until 7-9 am, so be careful if you're an early riser.
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CMC looks good and the Euro is a monster with phasing and dynamic cooling ftw (along with EPS and AIFS-EPS and the AIFS jumped 100-150 miles north), but not the UK/GFS. I think we now have something legitimate to track, at least, even if the setup is still pretty marginal for snow in these parts. Ya never know and it seems like it's been a long time since we had a marginal pattern/setup deliver a threaded needle for us.
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Looks like every global Op/AI is showing a significant storm around 2/15-16, but the AI's are both quite warm, which is concerning (especially the AIFS, which has been so good), while the others are mostly rain for 95/coast or have most of the precip too far south, but not far from much better, either. Certaily enough to keep me interested.
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HRRR was pretty good, at least for most of NJ, sadly. Just 0.2" of snow here vs. 1/2-1" forecast, which is still a pretty minor bust, since the 1" assumed 15-20:1 ratios meaning only about 0.05" QPF and to be off by only that much shouldn't come as a surprise.
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Without having looked at a model or any posts, I'm going to make a prediction: the 12Z models show at least a couple of big snowstorms next weekend. No way do we get 139 replies in the 5 hours I've been away, otherwise. Ok, time to check. Edit: guess it was more the LI/CT/RI/MA snow, although CMC and AIFS look promising for next Sun/Mon.
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With the Ft. Dix radar down, I missed the start of some light pixie dust snow (my wife saw it first, lol) and we now have a dusting on the ground. Would love to get at least 1/2".
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Last 3 HRRR runs show way less snow than earlier runs...hoping it's wrong...
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With no Ft Dix radar, anyone seeing snow?
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At least a B. It's silly that some are saying we haven't reached average snowfall for an entire winter, when the winter is barely half over - one has to grade on where we are now vs. where we should be now. The fact that we're well ahead of where we would normally be makes snowfall at least a B and an A- for me, since we got a little more lucky than CPK and have 29.5", which is our average for the winter, already.
