vortmax

BUF AFD mentions the mid-week system.

Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the
midweek time frame. Signal is evident for recovery of
temperatures to closer to normal values as the arctic air
departs Tuesday into wednesday, but the development of a trough
in the central CONUS is causing some issue. The Euro and GFS
both advertise low pressure developing and moving up the Ohio
Valley into the eastern Great Lakes, while the Canadian has a
clipper-type low swinging through the region. Timing differences
also exist between each solution, but the Wednesday time period
currently appears to be the best timing for the arrival of
precipitation from this system. Some warmer air gets pushed
northward toward the region on the southern end of the
precipitation shield, but for now will keep the precipitation
type as all snow until more consensus in guidance is achieved in
the coming days.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Boo!

Hoping to see all the models take that NW jog when the sampling gets onshore.

84hr NAM isn't reliable at all...especially with no real sample.

From the BUF AFD:

While the main deformation zone with this
storm should line up over Pennsylvania... deep lift over our
region will still be provided Saturday night through both
H925-70 frontogenetic forcing and strong H25 jet support. Since
H85 temps over Lake Ontario will be in the vicinity of
-12c...the counties that line its south shore will ALSO receive
 SIGNIFICANT lake effect enhancement as the steering flow will
 back from 060 to about 020. Temperatures will fall into the
 single digits Saturday night with wind chills falling below
 zero.

WSW, pretty generic wording for now...to be expected.

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still a big hit, but not epic. Sharp precip cutoff as well. We really won't know the degree of phasing until the SW is sampled tomorrow evening. Anyone wanna comment on the synoptic setup changes per model run that would point to the degree of phasing (particularly the EC vs. FV3)?

1 minute ago, katodog said:

is this good for snow for us or bad ?

Typically not good as it steals the energy and moisture away.

In other news:

SNOW SQUALL WARNING
NWS BUFFALO NY
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019

NYC037-051-055-073-117-121-161701-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.190116T1638Z-190116T1730Z/
1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019
Genesee County-Livingston County-Monroe County-Orleans County-Wayne
County-Wyoming County-

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
Northwestern Wayne County in western New York...
Northeastern Wyoming County in western New York...
Northwestern Livingston County in western New York...
Southeastern Orleans County in western New York...
Monroe County in western New York...
Genesee County in western New York...

* Until 1230 PM EST.

* At 1138 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line
extending from near Hilton to near Pembroke, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind
gusts greater than 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar and webcams.

IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel.

* This includes the following highways...
Interstate 390 between exits 11 and 12.
Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 46.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Batavia, Brockport, East
Rochester, Albion, Hilton and Webster.

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Ukmet is still so much slower then other guidance, allowing it to be pushed east before gaining a ton of lattitude..

12z?

4 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

And check out the follow on system for mid next week.  Looking much more wintry than a 60 degree rainout.

Beat me to it.

The GFS run as a very similar LP track next Tues - Thu as well! 

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Canadian

Interesting precip 'jump' from the main LP, to coastal. Would like to see those 2" values keep moving right through OH to WNY.

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

5 mb stronger at hr 90..

Takes a right hand turn as well.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like the LP jumps off-shore at 105-108 hours.

GFS is running.

12z NAM 84hr

Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Man thats some serious cold right there, wow,  They would definitely consider closing local schools in the area with children waiting for the bus when its -15F without the wind, not my kid if I had one!

If it weren't MLK day... 

29 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I want the Ukie or some credible model to remain an outlier. To give hope to the true i95 weenie. Only to crush their dumbass hearts in its fist of pain.  

Dr. Dreamcrusher? 

13 minutes ago, tim123 said:

That is nice looking energy

Sounds like a Met pickup line.

21 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

The last time anyone cared about the Ukie was back during the Cold War.

Lol. Just tying up the loose ends. 

Just now, Syrmax said:

Ukie is on it's own. Hasta la vista baby!

Would be nice to see a nice hop NW on the 0z though. 

3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah, I guess my fear is that a deeper initial low will be a touch slower and perhaps better aligned for a full phase. In that scenario I think it moves more north northeast as it pushes the warm sector and baroclinic zone further north. It certainly is running into a formidable arctic high so we have that going for us. The slightly strung out partial phase is probably a safer bet though. 

Hope it creates that long line of WA precip that starts early and gives a nice front-end thump.

Greart AFD out of BUF:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Major Winter Storm Possible This Weekend...

There continues to be fairly strong consensus between the
operational GFS and ECMWF...along with many of the GEFS medium range
ensemble members...that a MAJOR storm system will track from the
southern plains to the Mid Atlantic region during the course of this
weekend. This impactful southern stream storm system is likely to
produce a plowable snowfall over our forecast area...with the risk
for over a foot of snow for large areas. As usual...this will hinge
on the exact path that the storm will take...so confidence is not
yet high enough for a winter storm watch. This concern will remain
highlighted though in the HWO product.

Breaking this event down piece by piece...the seed for this
potentially very impactful storm system can be traced all the way
back to the northern Pacific. A somewhat innocent but well defined
shortwave...seen in hemispheric WV imagery near the intersection of
the Aleutian trench and the Emperor Seamounts...will make its way
to the California coast by Thursday afternoon. After crossing the
intermountain region on Friday...the increasingly robust shortwave
will induce strong cyclogenesis over the southern Plains Friday
night. The deepening storm system will cross the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Saturday...while a wedge of high pressure over our region
will give way to a burgeoning...far reaching warm frontal boundary
and subsequent inverted sfc trough. The deepening moisture field
over our forecast area will then be lifted by a strengthening low
level jet that will impinge upon a significant tightening of a
H925-70 baroclinic zone to our south. There will also be added
support from a aloft...as an anomalously strong H25 jet of
170kts will be found over Quebec. All of this will encourage
light snow over the western counties during the morning to
overspread much of the remainder of the region during the
afternoon...with the snow likely becoming moderately heavy over
the Southern Tier. Travel conditions should rapidly deteriorate
from southwest to northeast as we push through the midday into
the afternoon.

The peak of the storm is then expected Saturday night...as the
deepening cyclone is forecast to track by to our south across
Pennsylvania. Strong frontogentic forcing ahead of the system during
the first half of the night should support moderate to heavy steady
snow across much of our forecast area with steady snow continuing
during the overnight within a well defined deformation zone to the
north-northeast of the sfc low. Its certainly worth pointing out
that the accumulating snow within the deformation zone should be
lake enhanced for sites from Wayne county westward to the IAG
Frontier. In addition...the deep forcing will remain supported by
very strong jet dynamics aloft. Again...the placement of these
various lifting mechanisms will ultimately determine the severity of
the winter storm...so stay tuned.

On Sunday...the still strengthening winter storm will chug from
eastern Pennsylvania to the New England coast. This storm track will
encourage the aforementioned deformation zone to be `dragged` to the
east across our forecast area...while significant lake enhancement
within a deepening arctic airmass will most certainly keep snowfall
intensities up. The snow at this point will have a water content
of roughly 25:1...and with strong winds of 15 to 30 mph likely...
there should be extensive blowing and drifting. If the storm
plays out as the consensus of the models are suggesting...travel
on Sunday will be difficult if not impossible in some areas.
The confidence for this scenario is still not quite high enough
for headlines... but it is advised to stay tuned for updated
forecasts and discussions.

The powerful winter storm will exit across the Canadian maritimes
Sunday night and Monday. While the synoptic snow will have ended
over our region...a persistent north to northwest flow of sub
-20c air will keep fairly widespread lake snow showers in place. There
 should still be a tight enough pressure gradient to support
 gusty winds...and again...given the low water content of the
 snow... continued blowing and drifting will be a strong
 possibility.

Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I think a good conservative amount from this far out to be telling the public is a nice foot 4 totals I would not be telling the public 18 to 24 in 5 days out from the beginning of an event no way no how but that's just me

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

At least until the energy is sampled on Thursday.

1 minute ago, WNash said:

Maybe after the Thursday model runs that incorporate better sampling? If this goes down the toilet I don't want to be reminded by a thread that will stay on page one of the Upstate NY/PA subforum for two years.

lol