vortmax

I'm interested in the high-res models and their thoughts on LE.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

FV3 looks a little south

Was hoping it wouldn't cave to the EC.

2 hours ago, vortmax said:

HPC - slightly NW with LP placement (yesterday vs. today)

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You can look at it out to 84 here. Its experimental and not available elsewhere. 

http://labanimator.cmc.ec.gc.ca/wind/synoptic_e.html

Quite north with the primary - 993 in East-Central PA.

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another big storm on Thurs, goes farther west than the last. GFS has it as a rainstorm. 

 

Rinse repeat?

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That happens 95% of the time with these types of lows. Tough to get a miller A app runner. 

I understand that, but I would expect the primary to drift further N/NE in the process.

Seems the primary just stops and xfers East. Is that realistic?

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS is north, brings mixing potential up to state line. 

NAM same time frame:

12z GFS running, NAM out. NAM showing LE...

Just now, WesterlyWx said:

Gotta love sand snow! Lol! 

The wind will play a role in breaking up larger dendrites as well.

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

You beat me to it! Lol! 

Yea, but good point about the low range map...big difference.

I'm concerned that locations close to the Lake will see lower amounts as all the wind will blow it inland. The map below is pretty close to their 10% max map...so quite aggressive.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

That’s a really big forecast for synoptic in western New York. I’d take that in a heartbeat. This storm ruined my move in date, hopefully we don’t get a big storm next weekend. 

Those are big numbers to forecast...I'd like to see the 12z run first.

We'll see how the 12z disc goes:

Based on the latest available trends and guidance, a solution toward the 12Z ECENS mean will be preferred across the Western U.S. and offshore the West Coast after 36 hours, with a solution toward a compromise of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS mean and 00Z GEFS mean across the Eastern U.S. after 36 hours. The incorporation of the GEFS mean will be out of respect for the more progressive trends at least seen out of the NAM/GFS solution over the last 24 hours.

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ty, Its a slight improvement over the current gfs but it still lags the ecmwf and ukmet significantly in verification score. Its also significantly cold biased through much of the lower trop. Its not operational yet so they can still make tweaks (once the govt reopens, of course). 

 

Question is, how well is it doing for this storm? 12z should clear the air a bit.

HUH??

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Not good 0z runs. 

Just noticed that.

9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

So is the winter storm watch awfully long in duration? Most local models have snow ending sunday afternoon and long range models do not do well with lake effect/enhancement so what would be the reason for the Sunday night and Monday time frame?

I'd guess residual LE and blowing/drifting snow (especially due to dry nature and high winds).

10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think the quicker trend is important to make this bigger for ny. 18z ecmwf was quicker and better...same with the 18z gfs and fv3 gfs. The 18z ggem appears to be slightly faster than the 12z. I think the forum wants to see that trend continue. Even if the "B team" is 30 percent correct...that will help a great deal. 

Also, very anomalous pwats ahead of the system could cause some undermodeled convection pumping latent heat release into the downsteam ridge. 

 

 

 

Trying to wrap my head around this. So would that process enhance the downstream ridge causing a more NW track?

Just now, tim123 said:

Not super strong storms but I think all that artic air and juicy jet love to wring out the moisture

Did you say juicy jet love? lol

56 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The eps was phased with all of yesterday’s runs, it went way southeast today. The spread on eps was so small yesterday, surprised at the big leap. Still 3 days out though. 

Also the positioning is further south on the EC at 12z sat

Just now, wolfie09 said:

Here was the 12z euro..

EC & Ukie swap??

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Busy day at work just catching up, what did I miss? 

Storm cancel.

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I could be in correct but I thought it actually had a SE bias.

I always remember a SE bias during winter months for EC LP back in my OSU days. Not sure if they've 'corrected' for that by now.

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Thats what i wanna see lol 

Even tries to close at 700.