vortmax

Lake water is warm, longer than normal event...but worried about the wind speeds - usually goes against big amounts.

KBUF being quite bullish...


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

NYZ004-005-090345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing
  snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning
  or evening commute.

5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

This batch of precip may be brief, but its gonna come down hard, for a couple hrs at least!

Coincides well with current temps off Nam, off by couple degrees either way but mostly cooler.

But the precip is in question. Skew T shows saturation between now and 18Z with quick onset of precip within those 3 hrs. Freezing rain seems probable after a few minutes of a thumping of snow.

Looks like rain in Erie, PA.

https://www.epicwebstudios.com/about/office-webcams/9th-and-french-webcam/

Great summary PDF "A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns". Check it out.

http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Too bad it's the GFS. Canadian and Euro are non events. Yawn.

The track does look quite suppressed with a weak LP.

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Should only be warm Jan 14-18th. After that we should see a more consistent pattern change to winter weather. 

Without a firmly established -EPO, we will have the possibility of pacific moderation events.

10 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow.2 said:

Time to issue my mea culpa. I am at the top of the blame pile - easiest call in the world was no snow / winter this year given my property purchase. Will probably be single handily responsible for the closing of Peek N Peak and the Wilderness Lodge resorts over the next decade, especially when we build our permanent home out there. Conversely, Mt. Pleasant ski area in Edinboro will benefit from record snows once I move.

I could live at the top of Mt. Baker ski area in Washington state and their average annual snowfall of 663" would plummet.

My apologies... 

Thanks a lot for ruining our winters! 

2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Is it going to be sunny out?

For once it would be nice to get a synoptic thump and not rely on spotty LE...

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

don’t waste any time on this nonsense 

another cutter...

3 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

00Z EURO almost made me throw up thats how seriously ugly it is, lol, comical as Mets are still calling for cold and snowy conditions.  It's because 2/3 of Mets this yr went Cold and Snowy for the NE as a whole, lol, hows that workin out so far.  How actually bad would it be if we didnt have a Nov to remember?

Hopefully it is only a hiccup.

2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Arctic HP

Tea Kettle?

5 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Nearly all the 18z runs have that sfc low a tick further north putting wny in a really ideal spot for damaging winds tonight. Will be a hell of a way to ring in the new year.  Really liking this setup and excited to see what unfolds as there isn’t much else to hang our hats on these days. Haha. 

Normally like these events, but seem to lose power quite a bit! Hope it stays on! 

1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Some interesting members for the begining of jan..

I'll take #41 for $1000 Alex.

Very nice writeup BW! 

Canadian upstream radar looks dry, was expecting to see more off GB. 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What in the world is a gotcha band? They drinking at the office? 

They seem to happen all the time for Niagara & Orleans ctys! 

Snowing like crazy here! You guys to the east may be in for a morning surprise. 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

LOL

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m looking at ALL the models. The best ones show ROC receiving between 1-3” total by late on the 25th with very marginal temps in between. We’ve been green for 10 days now. Huge rain on the way.

I see that anemic energy for the 24th, it’ll spit rain or snow showers. Is it enough? I don’t think so. 

Upslope folks look marginal but better as does Oswego County. The BUF disco has been the same for days- dull and dreary. 

I really wish I saw something- anything- but I don’t. The euro has been our best hope and I bet it starts coming back to reality. 

ROC (at least eastern subs) could eek out a white Christmas:

Given a flow setup for multi-band activity and a lack of long duration
to the west-northwest flow regime, accumulations should be
fairly light, however a few inches will be possible in the
favored areas...with dusting/one half inch totals elsewhere.

A short period of drying and even some clearing will follow Saturday
night before an Alberta Clipper-type system approaches. Weak warm
advection off the deck will allow for light snow to develop as it
enters the picture during the afternoon on Sunday. Once again, even
with weak lift and saturation, efficient snow crystal growth with
the dentritic growth layer dipping into the lifting layer should
allow for some accumulation of snow. This will be largely modulated
by afternoon temperatures at least for a time, so the lower
elevations and more urban areas would be the least likely to see
accumulating snow, however as the system lingers into Sunday night
and eventually northwest flow lake effect snow showers become more
common in its wake, additional chances for accumulating snows exist
for the snow belts.

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That map would be inline with their discussion. Hoping the cold air moves in before the moisture leaves.

Will be interesting to see what BUF says in the AFD. --- Just read...pretty much lower elevations will be lucky to squeak out an inch.

Man, if we just had some colder air, this next system would've been huuuge.

18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

12z Canadianthis is a good trend. It’s a good model. The hires is also showing a secondary RGEM

Another 50-100 eastward shift may turn things in our favor. Here's to hoping for a Christmas miracle! 

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Where's the cold air coming from? 

The North.  Marginal, but may be enough to get that grass covered. We'll see.

12z GFS looks better with LP placement (850 freezing line moving east quickly). Canadian as well. This may have a nice potential for a couple inches on the back-end. Curious to see the Euro.

00z Sat:

06z Sat:

12z Sat:

84hr NAM is out of it's wheelhouse, but still nice to see LP to the east.