vortmax

The SSW event would be a nice pattern changer...as long as it doesn't squash the storm track too far south. Will be interesting to see how the long-range temp predictions respond (as most are above normal).

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

just for kicks but it’d take something like this! JMA. Lol

Got the German model? That seemed to fair pretty well when the other models struggled last winter at this range.

That first chart looks like a potential cutter. Positioning of the HP on the 6z run is better.

Pretty intense band coming off of GB...

Once again, Orleans cty getting lit up with no one to report!

Some lightning strikes with that line forming.

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Nope and its been coming down for at least 2hr now with 0 acc to show for it!

Better to watch than rain, at least.

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Game changer for Wayne County. It’s amazing to me, this area is one of the only, non topo, holes in all of the US. Can’t wait to track those skinny bands that hammer N Rose and Hannibal. I used to drive from ROC to Oswego on 104 and Hannibal always had the most snow. Same band that gets Fulton (I think). 

Spent 2 years in SUNY Oswego- they need the stars to align just right to get hit- but when it does.... I only saw it once. 

I went to school there for MET undergrad and experience some impressive events (2'+) and one (3'+) which led to the only class cancellation over 4 years!

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Guess the models didn’t do to bad with the “enhanced” precipitation..

Well, that snow map isn't accurate from Northern Monroe through Wayne as we easily have 4-5" within 3 miles of the lake shore.

Also interesting to note that WWAs weren't added to Niagara/Orleans until radar showed them getting hit. Wonder why KBUF didn't see that coming as the models were showing them getting in the action as well.

1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

The one place the NWS had nothing, no warnings or adv's the whole time we we're tracking this event, are getting crushed, and thats the Niagara Escarpment, meanwhile 

I'm under a warning with flurries fallling, lol!

It seems the radar is crushing up there for many events, but never see pics or hear of reports. 

Starting to stick in Ontario now (about 3 miles inland). Earlier than expected. 

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Can try these, they don't load at work.

http://chautauqualakeassociation.org/lakecam/

http://www.chautauquasnow.com/Trail-Information/Conditions/Live-Cameras.aspx

Thanks, 1st link doesn't seem to have a live stream, 2nd one works great (Mayville, NY)!

Are there any webcams on the Chautauqua Ridge?

20 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Looks like the TUG is already snowing, at least on WeatherTap radar but I don't know how accurate it is with such things.

Definitely snowing in Old Forge.

http://www.oldforge.net/christys/

45 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Here is the 12z Canadian

Looks like some pretty good enhancement/Les on a NW flow, on the backside..

Still not much cold..Granted the low is right over us lol

Is the energy onshore yet? If not, there's still time for some changes with better data. 

Brief bursts of heavy snow here. Almost an inch...grass almost covered. Lake seems to be charged up for this event. 

7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Third time this changed just today lol

They also changed the WSW wording to Northern Wayne (vs. Eastern)...gives me some hope for Ontario!

Grass almost covered in Ontario, NY. Impressed.

On 10/29/2018 at 10:03 AM, Thinksnow18 said:

So I have to say this above and what the ECMWF have been forecasting since about mid October is really starting to make me wonder what the CPC is looking looking at with the next month and also for the winter as a whole. Checking out the first 10 days of November does not seem torch worthy and by mid month there appear many chances for cold air intrusions and the storm track pushing a bit further south out of Canada. To me the CPC is lazily forecasting on the basis of El Nino alone and not the stength of it,  position of the warmer Pacific waters off the West coast, upper level trends already, etc...

Are they picking up on a SSW event? Anyone have the wind chart for that? Usually a 6 week lag, I believe.

2 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Alaska may have one of their warmest winters on record according to some forecasters but who really knows.

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Hopefully all that cold are will invade the CONUS.

Nice band lighting up over NE Monroe..

Finally a change to more autumn weather! Looking forward to seeing how severe this cold season will be.

This cell in S. Ontario looks like it has rotation!

1 hour ago, WesterlyWx said:

Incredibly soupy. DP of 74 here is about as high a DP as I can remember for this area. 

Back around 1995, the DP reached 79 or so in KROC around midnight...right before a major derecho came through.

DPs in low-70s...impressive for mid-June. Very soupy out there.