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vortmax

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    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    From WPC diag disc:

    Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend

    Confidence: Slightly Above Average

     

    Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such

    that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution

    of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to

    eastern U.S. this weekend.  However, the 12Z NAM stands out the

    greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its

    surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining

    deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly

    flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs

    with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with

    a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant

    outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall

    preference across the central and eastern U.S.

    • Haha 1

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted 

    All sorts of goodies in here:

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Major Winter Storm Moves Into the Region...

Warm advection off the deck starts fairly early on Saturday as the
model consensus favors modest ascent in the 285-295K layer with
sufficient moisture transport in the layer and condensation pressure
deficits falling off toward 10 mb near to or shortly after 10 AM
across western New York. This should allow for light snow to develop
progressively from west to east across the area. By late afternoon,
moisture transport in the layer rapidly increases from the
southwest, centered decidedly over the Southern Tier on the model
consensus. This should allow for some ramp up in snow intensity over
the Southern Tier by the afternoon hours.

As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved
coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of
a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem
to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should
allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1
over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of
the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives
into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the
Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet
another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z
Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With
further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York
as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was
upgraded to a winter storm warning.

As the deformation band lifts northward, northeasterly flow develops
over Lake Ontario. This combined with a fairly stable boundary layer
located largely in the dendritic growth zone, as well as confluent
northeast flow in the boundary layer over the lake should allow for
the development of a lake effect band underneath the arriving large
scale snowfall. This will allow for local enhancement in Monroe,
Orleans, and Niagara Counties, which has necessitated an uptick in
snow amounts there, as well. Additionally, a stiff northeast wind
off the lake that will become increasingly gusty through the night
will allow for blowing snow to develop in this area first.

The deformation band starts to pivot from northwest to southeast
later in the night as the 850-800 mb low passes across northern
Pennsylvania. This will sag the western portions of the band quickly
southward, while the eastern portions of the band will linger near
Lewis and Oswego Counties a bit longer. As this occurs, boundary
layer flow trends more northerly into Sunday. This will allow for
the single band of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario to transition
into multi-band along the entire southern shore of the lake.
Likewise, as the 850-800 mb low departs, cold air advection off the
deck increases the mixing depth and wind gusts increase as well.
This will allow for blowing snow to start to develop across the
area.

All in all, a very dry snow seems likely for the northern 2/3 of the
forecast area. This will result in far greater accumulations than
would normally be seen with the amount of QPF the models are putting
out. Further, mechanical forcing trends suggest some northward
deviation in the best forcing from the 00z guidance. With
microphysical concerns playing a large role and a quite favorable
synoptic pattern at play, explicit model QPF will likely be a less
important factor in the forecast than would normally be the case.
This is especially true in the northeast lake effect band areas in
Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe Counties. That said, 7-12 inches in
Jefferson County will quickly transition into a swath of a foot or
more from the Tug Hill across the southern Lake Ontario shore with
an additional swath across the Southern Tier and northern Finger
Lakes. The lowest totals outside the St. Lawrence Valley in the area
will likely be in the immediate Buffalo area, with roughly 8-12
inches expected at this time.

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    WSW messaging enhancing... 

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

NYZ002>005-011-013-014-182215-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2300Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven,
Batavia, Geneseo, and Canandaigua
913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO
6 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to
  17 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee,
  Livingston, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
  impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

    WIVB in house is going with the Euro and has KBUF at 11" for the storm. Still thinking the NWS has really buckled and gone too low.

    EC has 1.2" along south shore. At 15:1 average, that's about 18". KBUF has 10-14" in the WSW. They could bust low, but not a ton. 

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    KBUF AFD about the storm - KROC could be jackpot area - Sat 2-4, Sat ngt - 8-16, Sun 3-6+ 

    Light snow will spread into Western NY Saturday morning as warm air
advection and isentropic lift move into the region. Light easterly
winds and temperatures in the mid to upper teens to low 20`s will
result in a light snowfall that accumulates slowly throughout the
morning. Light snow will then spread into Saturday afternoon while
snow intensifies slowly across Western NY. Saturday will be
uneventful with minor accumulations of 2-4 inches across WNY to 1-3
inches east of Lake Ontario.

Although there continues to be spread in the speed of phasing and
the track, the spread is getting smaller. A beautiful coupled upper-
level jet will promote rapid deepening as low pressure moves into
the northern Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night. At this time, mid-
level frontogenesis will have moved into western and north-central
NY, moving east of the region Sunday. This will promote deep lift in
the dendritic growth zone for much of the region. Northeast winds
will also increase overnight and will produce lake enhancement along
the southern shore of Lake Ontario during this time. The open waters
of Lake Ontario are still in the upper 30`s to low 40`s. This is
more than enough to produce increased instability and additional
snow totals. Winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts
near 40 mph along the southern shore of Lake Ontario with gusts near
35 mph across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie shoreline. Winds
will be lower across interior portions of NYS. Snow rates will
likely be 1 in/hr with the potential for higher rates where
enhancement is likely. Snowfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches are
possible overnight.

Winds will start to back to the northeast Sunday morning and cold
air advection will spread across the eastern Great Lakes through the
day. The heavy widespread synoptic snow will move east of western NY
Sunday morning and will move east of the North Country by Sunday
afternoon. Snow will transition to lake effect during this time with
gusty winds and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible Sunday with the higher
amounts along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the
higher terrain. The Tug Hill region will also see enhancement from
upslope conditions.

Temperatures will take a tumble Sunday and Sunday night with highs
in the single digits to low teens and near zero to the minus teens
across the North Country Sunday night. Wind chills will go below
zero early Sunday morning and fall through the day on Sunday. Wind
chills will likely approach minus 20 across WNY and minus 40 across
the North Country by Monday morning.

As mentioned above, confidence has increased that a major winter
storm will impact western and north-central NY this weekend, however
there remains uncertainity as to where the heaviest snow axis will
be and how wide it will be. With this, will continue to message the
Winter Storm Watch Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.
Possible (total) snow accumulations during this time range from 12-
18 inches with 18-24 inches along the southern shore of Lake Ontario
and across the southern Tug Hill region.
    • Like 2

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

    I'd have to go with Cantore, TBH, Siedel is alright but he shoulda stayed indoors cause he wasn't bad on screen as he went in depth sometimes as did Cantore but it seems like those days are over,  I also think Jim likes snow just as much as any of us weenies in this thread, lol!  Yeah, everything is ready to go, all systems check and I can't for the life of me think of anything that can throw a wrench into this thing except too much of a NW correction and we mix for a bit but that's not likely, I don't think, lol!

    Would be nice to see a 50-100mi NW jog... ;}

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