vortmax

12z CMC has an interesting mid week solution. Some rain, but an anafrontal snow look. Hoping it trends cooler.

LE reoriented to NW.

I'll take some quarters.

Yes, they did mention that.

Is that view on their website as well or just the app? Ok, downloaded, but radar is showing nothing...not sure if I got the right view. Edit: I found the Doppler toggle on the website, just not the app yet.

Look at this craziness going on near ORD... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-24

We've easily gotten 2" of fluff over the past couple of hours, even with that 2500ft inversion - all under the radar. If this goes up to say 6 or 7k, then it may be a nice surprise for the south shore peeps. We shall see.

KBUF's thoughts about LE: Speaking of snow...regional radars as of late morning indicate that the back-edge of the moderately heavy synoptic snow is pushing east across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. In the wake of this...lake driven snows are immediately taking its place as the arctic air is is generating a moderately unstable environment over the lakes. While lapse rates will approach 9 deg c/km just `off the deck` of the lake...the 12z KBUF sounding depicted an incredibly strong and impressive 8 deg c inversion based around 2500 ft. This will SEVERELY limit the intensity of the lake snows due to a very shallow convective depth...but the degree of frigid arctic air will guarantee countless multiple bands of lake effect. Snowfall rates within this activity may be over a half inch per hour into the early afternoon...but as the arctic air deepens and the dendritic growth zone `drops out` of the cloud bearing layer...the fluffier dendrites that we have been experiencing will transition to plates and columns...which are icier and will accumulate at a slower rate. This type of snow tends to be `greasier` as well for those driving in it. Fresh snowfall from noon today until nightfall will generally be 2 inches or less...with two notable exceptions. As much as 3 inches of new snow will fall over the Eastern lake Ontario region before the synoptic snows taper off...and 2 to 4 inches will be possible for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario. The lake snows will continue south of the lakes tonight. Guidance even suggests that as the core of the coldest air (H85 temps -27 to -30c) moves over us...the inversion may actually lift a few thousand feet. This could encourage the lake snows to be a little more impressive south of Lake Ontario...but given the lack of true dendrites...am not anticipating more than 2 or 3 inches from Lockport east to Fulton.

Nice! Hoping this will be a legit round 2!

Anyone for sounding and RH?

Anyone have a sounding for ROC today to see where that cap is? Wondering if it's going to be around 10k like some models were predicting.

Nice out there. Eyeballing 15-17 at this point. Light-mod LE right now. Hoping it picks up again. Temps down to 8 from 22 at 11pm.

This should happen soon: Adding to the jump in snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and `needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which accumulate much faster.

Ramping up here.

Then Sunday: Daytime snowfall should average 2 to 4 inches over the far western counties and as much as 4 to 7 inches from Orleans to Oswego counties in mainly lake driven snow. Into Sunday night: there is a suggestion by some of the guidance packages that the limiting inversion will lift to over 10k ft...so this could encourage the bands of lake snow to be a little more significant. At last, Monday: Lake effect snow will accumulate up to two inches southeast of Lake Ontario.

Great description of what's been happening today and what we're in for tonight: Weak warm advection and some lift from a passing 150kt H25 jet has been busy generating light snow across the region all day (after lunch for North Country). As we move from the afternoon into tonight...the lift across the region will deepen and substantially increase as a southerly 25 to 30kt low level jet will impinge upon a tightening H925-70 baroclinic zone. Meanwhile...the passing upper level jet will intensify to more than 180 kts! This will significantly increase the amount of lift just as a swath of moisture from the GOMEX will surge through our region. Snowfall rates of less than a half inch from the afternoon will thus increase to an inch per hour...with amounts possibly reaching two inches per hour from about Orleans county eastward to Wayne County where some lake enhancement can be anticipated. Adding to the jump in snowfall rates will be much more favorable/efficient snow making microphysics. Usually...the dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft thick...but overnight this zone of snow production will deepen to nearly 10 kft! This will force our somewhat grainy `columns` and `needles` of snow to change in character to dendrites...which accumulate much faster.

The highest amounts...which could conceivable TOP TWO FEET... will be over Monroe to western Oswego county. These snowfall amounts may not be as important though as the 20 to 30 mph winds that will blow and drift the snow into drifts SEVERAL feet deep. As for the meteorology behind all of this...

Down to 995!

New Brunswick

Same here, pushing 4"

999 over W KY

This is turning into something special. Winds starting to pick up here.

I think you'll end up better as our snow will be blown in your direction!

Man, if that LP ends up in SW PA...ESPECIALLY at 991...RGEM/FV3 was right all along!

2"/hr rates (BUF AFD): Snowfall rates under a half inch an hour through mid afternoon will increase to a half to one inch per hour late this afternoon...esp over the Southern Tier. Rates tonight will further increase to one to as much as 2 inches per hour...especially across the Southern Tier and for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario.