vortmax

Question is, what will that impact? Track, precipitation, etc.

WPC has it stay at 998 until it gets to the coast. Let's see what happens.

LP down to 998 in the last couple hrs.

Precip making good eastward progression...

That's hilarious.

https://www.weather5280.com/blog/2017/01/05/what-is-conditional-symmetric-instability-csi/

NWS upped range to 12-18 for south shore in WSW (up from 10-14 earlier): ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce significant blowing and drifting snow. WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties.

Seems pretty south.

BUF more bullish on their totals (click image for the real one):

Noticed that. Amazing the trouble they're having just 24hrs out.

WPC already mentioned the NAM was ignored. Not sure why we should be worried.

Dang...my bad!!

NAMmed!

Not much confidence in the NAM solutions per the WPC... Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend Confidence: Slightly Above Average ...19Z update... The differences between the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC and their previous 00z cycles were minor with a non 12Z NAM blend continuing to appear best for the central and eastern U.S. ...previous discussion below... Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to eastern U.S. this weekend. However, the 12Z NAM stands out the greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall preference across the central and eastern U.S.

Here goes: KBUF 14" KROC 22" KSYR 19" KBGM 18"

SSW FTW!

UFO action on the Euro...or maybe the eye of Sauran?

Bank it. Lol

This one will be a hard one to measure with all the wind. I think folks 10-20 inland from the lake with get the greatest accumulations.

Right-entrance region as well. Nice.

A day or 2 early!

Still liking KBUF's old snow map (yesterday - thumbnail only)...

20:1 sounds high, but even if ave, say 1:17, still talking a 2 footer with major drifting. Blizzard Warning for sure outta KBUF for the south shore ctys...you know they're thinking about it...

YYZ really boned on that map...hoping for a FV3/RGEM coup for their sake!

Anyone care to compare current surface map to model init? Would be interesting to see which model got the lee side cyclogenesis/placement most accurate.