vortmax

BUF AFD mentions the mid-week system. Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the midweek time frame. Signal is evident for recovery of temperatures to closer to normal values as the arctic air departs Tuesday into wednesday, but the development of a trough in the central CONUS is causing some issue. The Euro and GFS both advertise low pressure developing and moving up the Ohio Valley into the eastern Great Lakes, while the Canadian has a clipper-type low swinging through the region. Timing differences also exist between each solution, but the Wednesday time period currently appears to be the best timing for the arrival of precipitation from this system. Some warmer air gets pushed northward toward the region on the southern end of the precipitation shield, but for now will keep the precipitation type as all snow until more consensus in guidance is achieved in the coming days.

Boo! Hoping to see all the models take that NW jog when the sampling gets onshore.

84hr NAM isn't reliable at all...especially with no real sample.

From the BUF AFD: While the main deformation zone with this storm should line up over Pennsylvania... deep lift over our region will still be provided Saturday night through both H925-70 frontogenetic forcing and strong H25 jet support. Since H85 temps over Lake Ontario will be in the vicinity of -12c...the counties that line its south shore will ALSO receive SIGNIFICANT lake effect enhancement as the steering flow will back from 060 to about 020. Temperatures will fall into the single digits Saturday night with wind chills falling below zero.

WSW, pretty generic wording for now...to be expected.

Still a big hit, but not epic. Sharp precip cutoff as well. We really won't know the degree of phasing until the SW is sampled tomorrow evening. Anyone wanna comment on the synoptic setup changes per model run that would point to the degree of phasing (particularly the EC vs. FV3)?

Typically not good as it steals the energy and moisture away.

In other news: SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BUFFALO NY 1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 NYC037-051-055-073-117-121-161701- /O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.190116T1638Z-190116T1730Z/ 1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 Genesee County-Livingston County-Monroe County-Orleans County-Wayne County-Wyoming County- The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Northwestern Wayne County in western New York... Northeastern Wyoming County in western New York... Northwestern Livingston County in western New York... Southeastern Orleans County in western New York... Monroe County in western New York... Genesee County in western New York... * Until 1230 PM EST. * At 1138 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Hilton to near Pembroke, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar and webcams. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes the following highways... Interstate 390 between exits 11 and 12. Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 46. Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Batavia, Brockport, East Rochester, Albion, Hilton and Webster.

12z?

Beat me to it.

The GFS run as a very similar LP track next Tues - Thu as well!

Interesting precip 'jump' from the main LP, to coastal. Would like to see those 2" values keep moving right through OH to WNY.

Takes a right hand turn as well.

Looks like the LP jumps off-shore at 105-108 hours.

GFS is running.

12z NAM 84hr

If it weren't MLK day...

Dr. Dreamcrusher?

Sounds like a Met pickup line.

Lol. Just tying up the loose ends.

Would be nice to see a nice hop NW on the 0z though.

Hope it creates that long line of WA precip that starts early and gives a nice front-end thump.

Greart AFD out of BUF: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Major Winter Storm Possible This Weekend... There continues to be fairly strong consensus between the operational GFS and ECMWF...along with many of the GEFS medium range ensemble members...that a MAJOR storm system will track from the southern plains to the Mid Atlantic region during the course of this weekend. This impactful southern stream storm system is likely to produce a plowable snowfall over our forecast area...with the risk for over a foot of snow for large areas. As usual...this will hinge on the exact path that the storm will take...so confidence is not yet high enough for a winter storm watch. This concern will remain highlighted though in the HWO product. Breaking this event down piece by piece...the seed for this potentially very impactful storm system can be traced all the way back to the northern Pacific. A somewhat innocent but well defined shortwave...seen in hemispheric WV imagery near the intersection of the Aleutian trench and the Emperor Seamounts...will make its way to the California coast by Thursday afternoon. After crossing the intermountain region on Friday...the increasingly robust shortwave will induce strong cyclogenesis over the southern Plains Friday night. The deepening storm system will cross the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday...while a wedge of high pressure over our region will give way to a burgeoning...far reaching warm frontal boundary and subsequent inverted sfc trough. The deepening moisture field over our forecast area will then be lifted by a strengthening low level jet that will impinge upon a significant tightening of a H925-70 baroclinic zone to our south. There will also be added support from a aloft...as an anomalously strong H25 jet of 170kts will be found over Quebec. All of this will encourage light snow over the western counties during the morning to overspread much of the remainder of the region during the afternoon...with the snow likely becoming moderately heavy over the Southern Tier. Travel conditions should rapidly deteriorate from southwest to northeast as we push through the midday into the afternoon. The peak of the storm is then expected Saturday night...as the deepening cyclone is forecast to track by to our south across Pennsylvania. Strong frontogentic forcing ahead of the system during the first half of the night should support moderate to heavy steady snow across much of our forecast area with steady snow continuing during the overnight within a well defined deformation zone to the north-northeast of the sfc low. Its certainly worth pointing out that the accumulating snow within the deformation zone should be lake enhanced for sites from Wayne county westward to the IAG Frontier. In addition...the deep forcing will remain supported by very strong jet dynamics aloft. Again...the placement of these various lifting mechanisms will ultimately determine the severity of the winter storm...so stay tuned. On Sunday...the still strengthening winter storm will chug from eastern Pennsylvania to the New England coast. This storm track will encourage the aforementioned deformation zone to be `dragged` to the east across our forecast area...while significant lake enhancement within a deepening arctic airmass will most certainly keep snowfall intensities up. The snow at this point will have a water content of roughly 25:1...and with strong winds of 15 to 30 mph likely... there should be extensive blowing and drifting. If the storm plays out as the consensus of the models are suggesting...travel on Sunday will be difficult if not impossible in some areas. The confidence for this scenario is still not quite high enough for headlines... but it is advised to stay tuned for updated forecasts and discussions. The powerful winter storm will exit across the Canadian maritimes Sunday night and Monday. While the synoptic snow will have ended over our region...a persistent north to northwest flow of sub -20c air will keep fairly widespread lake snow showers in place. There should still be a tight enough pressure gradient to support gusty winds...and again...given the low water content of the snow... continued blowing and drifting will be a strong possibility.

At least until the energy is sampled on Thursday.

lol