vortmax

Would like to see it touch SW PA before scooting E.

Weenie meltdown almost complete.

Wash your hands and sing ABC...lol

If this LP amps up a bit more with a slower, more northerly track, we may actually see a BW from KBUF along the south shore...first call...lol

It looks EXACTLY the same...lol

From WPC diag disc: Preference: Non 12Z NAM blend Confidence: Slightly Above Average Model clustering continues to slowly tighten with each cycle, such that confidence is a bit above average for the track and evolution of the upper trough and surface low moving from the central to eastern U.S. this weekend. However, the 12Z NAM stands out the greatest from the relatively tight model clustering with its surface low tracking faster/east compared to the remaining deterministic and ensemble consensus. This is due to a slightly flatter low-mid level wave in the NAM. The 12Z NAM also differs with its 700 mb evolution across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with a less consolidated wave. While the 12Z NAM is not a significant outlier, there is enough difference to exclude it from the overall preference across the central and eastern U.S.

Was gonna say, I predict you will definitely have Monday off! lol

Agreed...RGEM is shorter range, but seems to have started and stayed on the northerly range of guidance. Would love to see the NA models score a coup here!

Let's see where 12z take it.

Dang. FV3 on board with RGEM.

This path would really bust the EC totals. Would like to see this unique track verify! Hows the timing look, still in and out quite or slowing down with a more amped solution?

All sorts of goodies in here: .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ...Major Winter Storm Moves Into the Region... Warm advection off the deck starts fairly early on Saturday as the model consensus favors modest ascent in the 285-295K layer with sufficient moisture transport in the layer and condensation pressure deficits falling off toward 10 mb near to or shortly after 10 AM across western New York. This should allow for light snow to develop progressively from west to east across the area. By late afternoon, moisture transport in the layer rapidly increases from the southwest, centered decidedly over the Southern Tier on the model consensus. This should allow for some ramp up in snow intensity over the Southern Tier by the afternoon hours. As the upper wave approaches by the evening Saturday, a curved coupled upper jet crosses the region concurrent with the arrival of a fairly deep deformation band and frontogenetical maxima that seem to be largely co-located with the dendritic growth zone. This should allow for rapidly increasing snow-to-liquid ratios (from about 20:1 over the northern CWA to about 14:1 over the southern portions of the CWA) by the evening hours as the best forcing for ascent arrives into the Southern Tier, then proceeds northward toward the Buffalo/Rochester area. The newly arrived 12z NAM has taken yet another northward jaunt to largely match with the 00z ECMWF and 06z Canadian, leaving the GFS a southerly outlying solution. With further support from the SREF, this has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts essentially south of the Thruway over western New York as well as in the North Country. As such, Jefferson County was upgraded to a winter storm warning. As the deformation band lifts northward, northeasterly flow develops over Lake Ontario. This combined with a fairly stable boundary layer located largely in the dendritic growth zone, as well as confluent northeast flow in the boundary layer over the lake should allow for the development of a lake effect band underneath the arriving large scale snowfall. This will allow for local enhancement in Monroe, Orleans, and Niagara Counties, which has necessitated an uptick in snow amounts there, as well. Additionally, a stiff northeast wind off the lake that will become increasingly gusty through the night will allow for blowing snow to develop in this area first. The deformation band starts to pivot from northwest to southeast later in the night as the 850-800 mb low passes across northern Pennsylvania. This will sag the western portions of the band quickly southward, while the eastern portions of the band will linger near Lewis and Oswego Counties a bit longer. As this occurs, boundary layer flow trends more northerly into Sunday. This will allow for the single band of lake effect snow off Lake Ontario to transition into multi-band along the entire southern shore of the lake. Likewise, as the 850-800 mb low departs, cold air advection off the deck increases the mixing depth and wind gusts increase as well. This will allow for blowing snow to start to develop across the area. All in all, a very dry snow seems likely for the northern 2/3 of the forecast area. This will result in far greater accumulations than would normally be seen with the amount of QPF the models are putting out. Further, mechanical forcing trends suggest some northward deviation in the best forcing from the 00z guidance. With microphysical concerns playing a large role and a quite favorable synoptic pattern at play, explicit model QPF will likely be a less important factor in the forecast than would normally be the case. This is especially true in the northeast lake effect band areas in Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe Counties. That said, 7-12 inches in Jefferson County will quickly transition into a swath of a foot or more from the Tug Hill across the southern Lake Ontario shore with an additional swath across the Southern Tier and northern Finger Lakes. The lowest totals outside the St. Lawrence Valley in the area will likely be in the immediate Buffalo area, with roughly 8-12 inches expected at this time.

12z NAM LP placement at 42hr isn't that far off from the RGEM:

WSW messaging enhancing... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 NYZ002>005-011-013-014-182215- /O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.190119T1800Z-190120T2300Z/ Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario- Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Batavia, Geneseo, and Canandaigua 913 AM EST Fri Jan 18 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 17 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Genesee, Livingston, and Ontario counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 6 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

NWS totals creeping up again...(clink on the image...thumbnail is old for some reason).

A fluffy inch w/light snow.

EC has 1.2" along south shore. At 15:1 average, that's about 18". KBUF has 10-14" in the WSW. They could bust low, but not a ton.

GFS huge jump south! Ugh! Just kidding.

KBUF AFD about the storm - KROC could be jackpot area - Sat 2-4, Sat ngt - 8-16, Sun 3-6+ Light snow will spread into Western NY Saturday morning as warm air advection and isentropic lift move into the region. Light easterly winds and temperatures in the mid to upper teens to low 20`s will result in a light snowfall that accumulates slowly throughout the morning. Light snow will then spread into Saturday afternoon while snow intensifies slowly across Western NY. Saturday will be uneventful with minor accumulations of 2-4 inches across WNY to 1-3 inches east of Lake Ontario. Although there continues to be spread in the speed of phasing and the track, the spread is getting smaller. A beautiful coupled upper- level jet will promote rapid deepening as low pressure moves into the northern Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night. At this time, mid- level frontogenesis will have moved into western and north-central NY, moving east of the region Sunday. This will promote deep lift in the dendritic growth zone for much of the region. Northeast winds will also increase overnight and will produce lake enhancement along the southern shore of Lake Ontario during this time. The open waters of Lake Ontario are still in the upper 30`s to low 40`s. This is more than enough to produce increased instability and additional snow totals. Winds will be increasing to 20 to 25 mph with gusts near 40 mph along the southern shore of Lake Ontario with gusts near 35 mph across the Niagara Frontier and Lake Erie shoreline. Winds will be lower across interior portions of NYS. Snow rates will likely be 1 in/hr with the potential for higher rates where enhancement is likely. Snowfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches are possible overnight. Winds will start to back to the northeast Sunday morning and cold air advection will spread across the eastern Great Lakes through the day. The heavy widespread synoptic snow will move east of western NY Sunday morning and will move east of the North Country by Sunday afternoon. Snow will transition to lake effect during this time with gusty winds and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are possible Sunday with the higher amounts along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the higher terrain. The Tug Hill region will also see enhancement from upslope conditions. Temperatures will take a tumble Sunday and Sunday night with highs in the single digits to low teens and near zero to the minus teens across the North Country Sunday night. Wind chills will go below zero early Sunday morning and fall through the day on Sunday. Wind chills will likely approach minus 20 across WNY and minus 40 across the North Country by Monday morning. As mentioned above, confidence has increased that a major winter storm will impact western and north-central NY this weekend, however there remains uncertainity as to where the heaviest snow axis will be and how wide it will be. With this, will continue to message the Winter Storm Watch Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Possible (total) snow accumulations during this time range from 12- 18 inches with 18-24 inches along the southern shore of Lake Ontario and across the southern Tug Hill region.

Looks like maybe 1-1.25" for south shore.

Surprised they wouldn't extend that red line to along the lakeshore.

Would be nice to see a 50-100mi NW jog... ;}

I think Jim would've had short circuited on-air at Mammoth Mtn.

That's just awesome. Is that the tornado chaser dude?

Wow, they really upped that low-end map. What's the high-end show? Actually I just looked and it's the same as their 'expected' map!