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Everything posted by vortmax

  1. I'm interested in the high-res models and their thoughts on LE.
  2. Quite north with the primary - 993 in East-Central PA.
  3. I understand that, but I would expect the primary to drift further N/NE in the process.
  4. Seems the primary just stops and xfers East. Is that realistic?
  5. The wind will play a role in breaking up larger dendrites as well.
  6. Yea, but good point about the low range map...big difference.
  7. I'm concerned that locations close to the Lake will see lower amounts as all the wind will blow it inland. The map below is pretty close to their 10% max map...so quite aggressive.
  8. Those are big numbers to forecast...I'd like to see the 12z run first.
  9. We'll see how the 12z disc goes: Based on the latest available trends and guidance, a solution toward the 12Z ECENS mean will be preferred across the Western U.S. and offshore the West Coast after 36 hours, with a solution toward a compromise of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS mean and 00Z GEFS mean across the Eastern U.S. after 36 hours. The incorporation of the GEFS mean will be out of respect for the more progressive trends at least seen out of the NAM/GFS solution over the last 24 hours.
  10. Question is, how well is it doing for this storm? 12z should clear the air a bit.
  11. I'd guess residual LE and blowing/drifting snow (especially due to dry nature and high winds).
  12. Trying to wrap my head around this. So would that process enhance the downstream ridge causing a more NW track?
  13. Also the positioning is further south on the EC at 12z sat
  14. I always remember a SE bias during winter months for EC LP back in my OSU days. Not sure if they've 'corrected' for that by now.
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