SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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How Important Is The -NAO For Top 10 Snowstorms?
SnoSki14 replied to bluewave's topic in New York City Metro
PD II is one unique way to get a big storm in this coming pattern. There's definitely support building from the 27-30th for a big overrunning storm. +NAO/-PNA but with a strongly -EPO/WPO. Could be interesting. -
The CFS is a complete joke and should be disbanded immediately, it bit the bullet on November and the model, not the weather will burn in flames next month.
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Nice storm signal next Saturday, strong east based block forces low to form further SE and rapidly intensify. The weather pattern has been so boring that even a coastal rainstorm would be nice.
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It's a very mild, Pacific dominated pattern as far as I can see. Blocking completely disappears. I see 60s to start December.
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Yes, 60s possible.
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I agree it's sad and terrifying how easily people fall for anything whether it be a fake news article or a weather forecast. There's so much misinformation out there and nobody cares to check the sources.
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That looks very Nina to me, classic N-S gradient.
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This probably would be a top 5 start to winter if the Nina was weaker or cold neutral. Getting a decent Pacific is going to be a struggle this winter.
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Well then I better be roasting next month with tshirts and shorts for Xmas. Anything less than 70 during the holidays is a bust. I'm still waiting for my record November torch that the models showed, I was all-in with the Novie roast bc I trusted them.
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That shortwave looks interesting on the 12z gfs for T-Day especially if the pattern amplifies in that way with strong western ridging. If the -NAO is that strong and the +PNA is correct then that wave should dig much further south.
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That great lakes storm late next week could be a big driver in our upcoming blocking pattern for Turkey week.
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Outside of this outlier arctic cold shot, temps look near normal to at times AN (late next week).
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Models backing off big time on the -NAO and huge blocking pattern. Gfs LR even has a massive ridge on east coast, thoughts?
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Well now they're showing more of a +PNA, which gives me more confidence on a sustained BN period. It's far less risky than an Omega Block.
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Well to be fair I'm just looking to see if there are snow opportunities, so yeah it doesn't have to stay BN as long as a pattern develops down the line that could give us our first snowfall. I've heard a lot of discussion around Thanksgiving time for snow but that's way out there obviously.
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I don't see how we're going to see sustained BN temps with such a deep trough on the west coast despite the development of high latitude blocking.
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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread Part 2
SnoSki14 replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
Those decadal averages really show just how much of a snow haven we've been in since 2000. Those 80s must have been putrid. -
It's never ending because it has become the norm so people think that's how it's supposed to be. People don't really notice how extreme it is unless it's centered around winter or summer. People definitely noticed Dec 2015 and they'll definitely notice the next record warm July-August.
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Funny thing is that most of the general public would love such an outcome. Low heating bills, no wintry mess/disruptions on the roads, mild & beautiful weather in the 50s-70s from Dec-March is an ideal scenario for 95% of the population. It sounds pretty great to me too. I want this to be the first winter with zero snowfall in NYC because it has never been done before. I think we'll get close. We had several years of great snowfalls and snowstorms so I don't mind seeing nothing this season.
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I don't mind it being warm in November, my ideal temps are 60s. We're easily setting up for the latest freeze on record though.
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Any rapidly intensifying storm with a tropical influence has the ability to send some strong winds to the surface, it doesn't hurt that SST's are well AN. I am curious if the western Caribbean system ends up a lot stronger and more energy gets entrained within the frontal boundary. Regardless if I see 1-2" of rain and a couple 45-50 mph gusts then I'll be happy.
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Sundays storm does look pretty impressive especially if we can get a more organized tropical system to come north.
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It would really take for a highly anomalous pattern to give us another BN month but any BN weather like this past August are just bumps in the road in an otherwise torch like state. We were very fortunate to not get these record months during the summer but it's coming.
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Some incredible ridging showing up for Nov on the gfs/euro.E Early guess is we see +10 departures for November as this brief late October cooldown is only transient.
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At least there's something interesting going on before a return to the same ole warm & dry pattern.
