Jump to content

SnoSki14

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,616

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    In other words they haven't got a clue. They were so convinced it would stay south so now they're going the opposite way. Also MJO will be progressing into 8 so no idea what that has anything to do with it. Pattern is pretty cut and dry to me. You have a widespread Arctic airmass stretched across and energy plowing into it. It's like a SWFE on steroids.
  2. SnoSki14
    Even if we mix at the end we would get dumped on first. There's just way too much cold air in place and it's too expansive to do anything else.
  3. SnoSki14
    Does anyone have 6z Euro/Euro AI or EPS snow maps
  4. SnoSki14
    I'll take a few hours of very heavy snow to mixing at the end if these amounts play out. 06z GEFS showed more confluence vs 0z so I do think the super amped Euro runs could be overdone.
  5. SnoSki14
    The snow amounts would be similar though. Euro is essentially a huge thump to dry slot.
  6. SnoSki14
    When was the last time your region had a foot plus?
  7. SnoSki14
    Not a bad thing that we're north right now. If the Euro is correct with the phasing idea then we would be closer to the jackpot totals vs mid Atlantic
  8. SnoSki14
    What a nasty ice storm setup stretching from TX to the Carolinas. Some of those maps, if they verified would be crippling. Give me plain rain or cold/dry over ZR any day
  9. SnoSki14
    Probably 13-14:1 at best. Ratios aren't about surface temperatures.
  10. SnoSki14
    Ok I see it now
  11. SnoSki14
    That's 12z I believe
  12. SnoSki14
    Ceiling is quite high if we can get western energy to fully phase in. I think even if we don't we're probably looking at a 4-8" type system at minimum
  13. SnoSki14
    Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear.
  14. SnoSki14
    Best part is there's no mixing threat.
  15. SnoSki14
    Ensembles mean QPF of 0.5-0.9 at 5-6 days lead time is pretty darn good.
  16. SnoSki14
    We have a lot more wiggle room than anyone north of CT.
  17. SnoSki14
    If there's more phasing and a stronger SE ridge then that's very possible especially this far out where things are still trending
  18. SnoSki14
    Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast.
  19. SnoSki14
    The somewhat slower evolution is a big deal. It allows the high to erode some which will lead to north ticks. It also allows more phasing and energy to come in which slows down the storm and increases duration. With timing shifting more towards later Sun-Mon that will also increase impacts for all. So you go from a significant/major storm to a KU biggie
  20. SnoSki14
    Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk
  21. SnoSki14
    GEFS continues to improve
  22. SnoSki14
    It didn't really. It just sharpened the northern extent. Totals for mid Atlantic went up. Last few runs have notably increased SE ridging, which is good in this instance
  23. SnoSki14
    Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow.
  24. SnoSki14
    Some great runs tonight. I know the AI GFS was meh but you can't win them all. Hopefully the Euro trends favorably It all depends on how much phasing with the western trough we see. Usually that screws us over but this time it's an asset.
  25. SnoSki14
    Honestly I'd rather be further north than the Mid-Atlantic right now. If models fully phase in that western trough then the north shifts will likely continue. We're in a good spot this far out
×
×
  • Create New...