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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Winter could lean on the colder side relative to what we're used to (think cold/dry to warm/wet and vice versa) but unless the pacific jet abates it's going to be extremely challenging to get a favorable winter storm track.
  2. SnoSki14
    It'll be slightly AN due to back tland forth pattern.
  3. SnoSki14
    Models had the low intensifying at a faster pace earlier as it passed through. I'm guessing it'll be sub advisory for most for like 1-2hrs, nothing noteworthy.
  4. SnoSki14
    Same ole crap. We'd be lucky to get 1 winter storm all winter.
  5. SnoSki14
    Wintry threats are certainly possible in November but very unlikely Then again with how bad winters have been, any month is unlikely
  6. SnoSki14
    Some potent stuff showing up on models actually. 3"+ amounts locally. Severe maybe?
  7. SnoSki14
    I hate the cold, dark mornings so yes it's fine. Can't imagine it still being dark at 8-830.
  8. SnoSki14
    Feels like mid November. Cool & cloudy, only 53F right now
  9. SnoSki14
    Again the rain will be the story. Core of strongest winds will impact a small area.
  10. SnoSki14
    Final intensification burst tonight. About to go sub 900mbs One of the craziest satellite images I've ever seen in the Atlantic
  11. SnoSki14
    Here we go Jamaica. Hit a wall, expect N/NNE turn shortly. Also the best its ever looked on satellite.
  12. SnoSki14
    It's looping around. Start of the turn north to NNE
  13. SnoSki14
    I wonder if Melissa shifting a bit more NW is helping to amp those totals too via tropical enhancement or some kind of PRE
  14. SnoSki14
    Additionally with the storm making landfall in W Jamaica that'll probably cause even greater rainfall and orographic lift on its east side, not to mention the entire island gets 20"+ amounts. NE movement ideal for surge too
  15. SnoSki14
    That's usually an indication of a sharp turn coming shortly. I expect a N to even NNE turn soon.
  16. SnoSki14
    A north to NNE turn will commence very shortly. There's no ridging left to keep this moving west. Tourist heavy Montego Bay will likely get eastern eyewall
  17. SnoSki14
    Just looking at radar and satellite you'd think this monster would harmlessly bypass Jamaica to the south. They would need a miracle now
  18. SnoSki14
    It looks as good as it ever has. Very cold cloud tops now rotating around core. I would be shocked if we didn't have a Cat 5 by morning.
  19. SnoSki14
    Model consensus is sold on it moving NNE into western Jamaica. These wobbles aren't uncommon and will correct themselves.
  20. SnoSki14
    Satellite presentation alone would suggest a near cat 5 now. Very impressive
  21. SnoSki14
    They found them.
  22. SnoSki14
    I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here.
  23. SnoSki14
    That does play a role. Model performance has been very inconsistent and poor lately
  24. SnoSki14
    Euro looked to be trending towards Canadian though. GFS has performed poorly overall with Melissa
  25. SnoSki14
    At best some moisture will be pulled in. There's no big block to the NE to prevent this from going OTS. But a strong closed low could pull it further west as it departs thus pulling in moisture
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