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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    We have a lot more wiggle room than anyone north of CT.
  2. SnoSki14
    If there's more phasing and a stronger SE ridge then that's very possible especially this far out where things are still trending
  3. SnoSki14
    Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast.
  4. SnoSki14
    The somewhat slower evolution is a big deal. It allows the high to erode some which will lead to north ticks. It also allows more phasing and energy to come in which slows down the storm and increases duration. With timing shifting more towards later Sun-Mon that will also increase impacts for all. So you go from a significant/major storm to a KU biggie
  5. SnoSki14
    Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk
  6. SnoSki14
    GEFS continues to improve
  7. SnoSki14
    It didn't really. It just sharpened the northern extent. Totals for mid Atlantic went up. Last few runs have notably increased SE ridging, which is good in this instance
  8. SnoSki14
    Yeah Feb doesn't look warm to me. There could be warmer intervals but weeklies and monthly guidance suggest a near to BN month. MJO and PNA will be favorable for cold/snow.
  9. SnoSki14
    Some great runs tonight. I know the AI GFS was meh but you can't win them all. Hopefully the Euro trends favorably It all depends on how much phasing with the western trough we see. Usually that screws us over but this time it's an asset.
  10. SnoSki14
    Honestly I'd rather be further north than the Mid-Atlantic right now. If models fully phase in that western trough then the north shifts will likely continue. We're in a good spot this far out
  11. SnoSki14
    One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts
  12. SnoSki14
    Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome.
  13. SnoSki14
    More than decent. Fully phasing in western trough.
  14. SnoSki14
    So much insufferable whining
  15. SnoSki14
    Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days.
  16. SnoSki14
    I'd recommend taking your eyes off the models for a few days. Things won't really come into focus until Thursday at minimum. And avoid the hype posts on social media... they're going to be relentless
  17. SnoSki14
    Yikes, this is why 95 percent of the population hates snow
  18. SnoSki14
    These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be nervous if we were in the bullseye this far out as these things almost always come north. Having models keeping this south 6 days out is not a bad thing
  20. SnoSki14
    This reminds me of a lighter version of PDII. Wish it were a few days closer however large systems usually stay on guidance and don't shift that much.
  21. SnoSki14
    One of the strongest blocking patterns on record. AO will get pretty negative but NAO not so much.
  22. SnoSki14
    Nice to see CMC come aboard. There's more support than just the AI models. And these things usually trend north unless there's a massive -NAO type block
  23. SnoSki14
    Here's another real test to see how legit these AI models are.
  24. SnoSki14
    Way too early to make this declaration. At this stage the Euro was completely OTS on yesterday's system
  25. SnoSki14
    Very consistent
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