SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I really think if the storm was more tucked like some of SREFS and Nam runs showed that much of the region would've seen 30+ Not to mention much stronger winds
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Seems a bit better than the Feb 2021 storm for central NJ though falls short of 2016
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Higher sun angle + much warmer temps than the Jan storm. Difference is huge
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The melt is going to be a lot faster than people expect. This is not late Jan with arctic temps. Even temps near freezing under sunny skies will do a lot of damage with late Feb to early March sun.
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Where's that color coded map that had the updated snow amounts/reports for NJ?
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So I can't tell. Is 19's favored RGEM model pulling it off or no?
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Getting some really nice bands for western Middlesex county
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Who?
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Been dealing with a good deal of subsidence in western Middlesex County. Strong bands collapse before getting here
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It happens. I'm in the subsidence zone right now. Funny thing is that the HRRR has quite a lull next couple hours before it really ramps things up.
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I think so. I got like 4" already and radar doesn't look like anything special
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Snowman19's model choice of course. Let's see how this verifies
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32F everything except pavement & roads obviously covered.
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Everything getting covered quickly now.
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Backend band showing up. Could deliver a big finale Also radar looks really good and juicy to our south. After 4-5PM is when things really ramp up
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Temps don't really crash below 30 for another 2-3hrs
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What amounts did the RAP show?
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I'm from the county and the 18-25 was way too high. Much more reasonable now
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Banding almost always ends up further NW than forecast. Unless you're in NE PA or something we're in great shape
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Stop looking at models except HRRR. Start looking at radar. The storm is happening now.
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Radar looks good to me. Temps ticking down slowly.
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We need to keep in mind this isn't a gulf Miller A that is able to pull in enormous amounts of moisture like a 16 or 96. The fact we're even talking about 2 feet totals nearby is pretty crazy.
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Again ratios for a good 6-8hrs will likely be higher than 10:1 I'm playing it conservative but trust the NWS too. This is one instance where an overperformance wouldn't surprise me. How often do we see a 970mb low inside the BM.
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The light precip and rain/mix for most will continue until around 4PM and then temps crash after that when the real storm arrives. Using the HRRR mostly from this point on.
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One caveat is that ratios at the height of the storm could be closer to 12:1 vs 10:1 These CCB setups under intense coastals can really deliver the goods.
