SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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What is this the midwest!
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It's been quiet south of 78 but we're getting sun now and lots of clearing so kinda worried about later
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Atmosphere is a lot more unstable vs the weekend. Severe potential is a lot higher later
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Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot.
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We're top 5 warmest from june 1 through July 15 or half of met summer. The hot stretches have been record breaking and the smoke didn't help either. After a cooler spell in late July all signs point to a lot more record heat for early August. Humans are like goldfish when it comes to weather though
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Major hurricanes can still happen if conditions are right aka Andrew in 92. Models are more bullish with this now too.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Too many variables, too many different areas of forcing, PDO signal is a total mismatch from a super Nino. Climo is out the window -
It's been top 5 hottest June 1 through July 15 period with mostly ridging in the east. Only now are troughs being introduced.
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2026-2027 Super El Nino
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The lower heights doesn't mean it will be cold given the super Nino. -
Just like I thought. Limited severe threat. We needed those hours of peak clear skies surface heating. At least the storms with the warm front were pretty good
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Yeah that's where the biggest threat would be. No surprise here they are the tornado capital of the northeast
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It's toast for this region. It's already nearly 2pm
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Flood threat is very real. Our atmosphere is juiced to the max
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Agreed. I'm ok with not seeing tornadoes either. Shear is very high and dynamics would be enough for a significant tornado threat for our area if we had the instability to back it up.
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I've seen how these events play out time and time again. We almost always need surface heating for several hours to generate a severe threat. The dynamics can overcome this to some degree but it won't be enough
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I see the flood threat but I don't see a severe threat. Think we get downgraded to slight. It's already almost noon with zero clearing to speak of.
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I personally think it won't be anything too significant. Lots of cloud cover in place. Destabilizing activity moving in now. Most enhanced or higher risks tend to disappoint for whatever reason
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Rare hatched tornado risk too.
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Strong shear, lapse rates and high dews could counteract the lack of sun here especially with the fronts being nearby.
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They are setting records with relatively moderate strength ridging. When/if one of those 600dm+ ridges parks over this area they will blow those margins away.
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Wow really, how pathetic
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Just a wall of smoke coming in from the north. Will undercut temps by several degrees tomorrow
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Nature is healing. Humans will extinguish themselves in 100 years or less and the Earth will thrive.
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In 2023 in NJ it was like the apocalypse arrived
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We're fortunate those 850s temps peak at night otherwise we would've seen another round of 105+ temps. All time state records would've been on the table.
