SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Don't be surprised if the heaviest snows end up further south. That's a cold/dry airmass taking over our region. It's 28/9 by me right now.
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WWA now. Figures with models trending downward. However more ice will probably cause more issues had we just had more snows.
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Very toasty Christmas overall, record breaking warmth southwest and central
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Snow will be gone 2 days later so people need to chill
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If it comes in like a wall of heavy snow then he could be right.
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Very cold BL temps vs other storm. Thump to ZR/Sleet most likely scenario. 4-8" right on the money from forecasts
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Well the good news if we get screwed is that it all gets washed away in a couple days anyway. At least we're getting snow opportunities this year
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RGEM not being amped is a big sign too. I really think it's just going to be a wall of snow that quickly drops several inches and then when rates lessen it turns to sleet/zr
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Looks to be on par with the other snow event we got recently here aka 5-6" near Somerset.
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This is why mets use a blend to create a forecast. There's always going to be outliers.
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Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet.
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Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance
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So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction
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One thing to note is that surface temps are really cold to start. Could be some high ratio snows and better than 10:1
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Would be a bizarre outcome if it verified
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Blocking looks really strong. GFS might be closer than you think
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Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us
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Grass is covered but it's mostly wet. 33F
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Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong
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I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us
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Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table.
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I don't ever recall seeing a short term upgrade to a HWW, usually it's the opposite Wind events have definitely gotten more intense over the years
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Not good for much more than a light snowfall
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You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now
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I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge.
