SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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I think if the previous system was strong then I agree but a weak shortwave 2 days ahead of the next is plenty of spacing imo.
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More narrow and local but for some yes
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SNE with the double whammy Fri + Sun/Mon system
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Unfortunately they are still a bit out of range but really nice consensus
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At this point it's whatever. If it happens awesome, if not then spring is well on its way. Playing with house money on a solid B winter.
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The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI
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The preceding wave also shifts the boundary further east
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Any images of it
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No but you do get more leeway in latter Feb with changing wavelengths and the usual indices no longer hitting the way they would in Dec through early Feb.
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This weekend is probably our last shot at another snowstorm. All indices turn unfavorable after this. March looks warm, maybe very warm.
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Euro AI doesn't support it
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Pretty strong system that has a lot more juice to work with. Might be the best chance since the Jan storm.
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HRRR has a bit more. I agree with 1-3" for most
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Big time. Shoveling daily. Worrying about your roof collapsing. No parking anywhere. Just give me one big storm per year and I'm good.
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Didn't you predict a torch winter though. Feb was supposed to torch too because it's a super Nina according to you. Instead Dec-Feb will be below normal temp wise with average snowfall, a 3+ week snow pack, a prolonged cold spell that rivaled 2015. I think after that everyone will be OK with a warm March.
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Would get me exactly to average snowfall
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It's much more likely to be a NYC south event than further north as it still gets kicked east. Central NJ has best chance
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Pretty remarkable short term changes aloft with a defined trend.
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Hopefully we sneak a stat padder 1-3" type event.
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It happens at night lol
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Ensembles show us getting a lot more active but until it happens the dryness will continue. I don't even care if it snows again, we just need precip asap.
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If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event).
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Not as good as 12z but better than 18z. Mostly steady and consistent though
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Good luck with that. Not much to track on the models after this system. At least that's what they're showing tonight for next week.
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Models are clearly jumping on the more phased trend.
