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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Not good for much more than a light snowfall
  2. SnoSki14
    You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now
  3. SnoSki14
    I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge.
  4. SnoSki14
    We need to stop comparing today to 35+ year old analogs. The climate has changed drastically. There are way too many variables in play today vs then.
  5. SnoSki14
    I looked forward to his expertise the most so 100 percent agree!
  6. SnoSki14
    9 out of 10 times he would've been right but not today.
  7. SnoSki14
    Northeast is on the margins with expansive ridge located south central US rest of December. Stronger Arctic blocking would make a big difference as gradient patterns like this can be very active
  8. SnoSki14
    That report tracks. Easily between 4-5" right now in Somerset and still coming down nicely. 6" is more probable. Much wetter snow than I expected
  9. SnoSki14
    We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month.
  10. SnoSki14
    Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential Maybe signs things turn around late December.
  11. SnoSki14
    4-5" looks spot on right now. South Central Jersey will get the enhanced rates for a longer period. Some 6-8" amounts likely there.
  12. SnoSki14
    This was expected
  13. SnoSki14
    I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.
  14. SnoSki14
    38/26 in Somerset. Perfectly fine for snow. Advisory bumped us up to 3-5"
  15. SnoSki14
    HRRR looking quite aggressive. Supports what HREF is putting out.
  16. SnoSki14
    It'll be interesting to see if that applies again but generally that has seemed to work out well. The higher end 4-5" totals will need to verify though
  17. SnoSki14
    Definitely a high end advisory event looking more likely but only local spots hit warning criteria.
  18. SnoSki14
    Strong gradient like pattern. Some models showing Arctic ridging. If the gradient can slip south every now and then for latter Dec and Jan then it could get interesting. I'd feel better being north though
  19. SnoSki14
    This mornings Nam got better compared to 0z. Think 3-5" looking better and better. Some areas may even approach 6" in South Central NJ.
  20. SnoSki14
    I like 2-4" from this. Advisory is right on the money. Agree about the ratios. Some localized spots will definitely see 4"+
  21. SnoSki14
    I would take multiple +15-20 winter temp months if we could get another Jan 2016
  22. SnoSki14
    Man central/south Jersey is getting all the good stuff in winter and during severe weather season
  23. SnoSki14
    MJO is very weak and should have negligible effects
  24. SnoSki14
    Last minute amplified trends that usually screw us could work in our favor
  25. SnoSki14
    Some holiday mood snows would be nice. Keeping expectations very low. Even an inch would be an accomplishment
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