SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Biggest thing to watch out for is the warm nose. Could result in more sleet than people expect. Not sure exactly where that sets up yet.
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Although it's nice to see snows again I do hope we can score at least one classic benchmark track this winter. Unfortunately although we're getting a lot of help on the Atlantic side, the fast and furious Pacific jet is still preventing those classic KU NESIS tracks of the past. If the jet can relax even briefly we might get a chance
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So the guy you think is a quack is now correct because of this bold prediction
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One thing to note is that surface temps are really cold to start. Could be some high ratio snows and better than 10:1
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Would be a bizarre outcome if it verified
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Blocking looks really strong. GFS might be closer than you think
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Very unusual setup for us. It's kind of a mix between a SWFE and Overrunning. Blocking looks really strong, you can see the shortwave get shredded as it comes east. But there's enough cold air and moisture in place before that happens for us
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Grass is covered but it's mostly wet. 33F
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Moisture slamming into a cold dome could yield a lot of snow but agree that it's very unlikely to be this far south unless blocking is very strong
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I agree but we've been experiencing a lot of atypical patterns and outcomes. Like how a strongly negative AO/NAO linked up with a SE ridge last winter, something that was unheard of. GFS also did poorly with the last snow event so take its outcome with a grain of salt. I would favor SNE to get it over us
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Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table.
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I don't ever recall seeing a short term upgrade to a HWW, usually it's the opposite Wind events have definitely gotten more intense over the years
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Not good for much more than a light snowfall
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You'd need a lot of work still for the northeast to benefit. Maybe clippers and some SWFEs for now
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I don't see the NAO block linking up with a SE ridge primarily because the main ridge is parked in south central US. However the Pacific jet will continue to crash into the west due to lack of any PNA or ridging out west trying to slow that down. So the northeast at best with get clipped by some clipper like systems or maybe even overrunning as shortwaves ride the central US ridge.
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We need to stop comparing today to 35+ year old analogs. The climate has changed drastically. There are way too many variables in play today vs then.
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I looked forward to his expertise the most so 100 percent agree!
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Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area
SnoSki14 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
9 out of 10 times he would've been right but not today. -
Northeast is on the margins with expansive ridge located south central US rest of December. Stronger Arctic blocking would make a big difference as gradient patterns like this can be very active
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That report tracks. Easily between 4-5" right now in Somerset and still coming down nicely. 6" is more probable. Much wetter snow than I expected
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We lucked out once otherwise my point stands. We go back to Great lakes tracks after this and for the rest of the month.
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Enjoy the snow because the rest of the month looks rather mild and wet. Friday's storm looks quite potent, strong rain/wind potential Maybe signs things turn around late December.
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4-5" looks spot on right now. South Central Jersey will get the enhanced rates for a longer period. Some 6-8" amounts likely there.
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Moderate snowfall 12/14/2025 WWA up for most of the area
SnoSki14 replied to WeatherGeek2025's topic in New York City Metro
This was expected -
I wouldn't declare victory over 1 modest snow event. We've been mostly shut out for the past 7-8 years outside a couple snow events.
