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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    I'm going with the wall of snow to sleet idea. We could easily accumulate 6-8+" over a few hours if it comes in fast and heavy. Heavy snowfall rates could also help keep mid levels colder so we hold onto snow longer until things lighten up enough where we fully go to sleet
  2. SnoSki14
    Don't assume it can't trend better either. Either way we don't control the weather...no sense in getting angry about it if it doesn't work out.
  3. SnoSki14
    Yeah but 4-6" of snow plus 1-2" of pure sleet on top when temps are like 20F would still be quite bad.
  4. SnoSki14
    Nothing we can do about it. I really don't want inches of sleet though, that would really suck.
  5. SnoSki14
    Best GEFS yet. Much better than OP which was probably more fluky than anything. They usually send them out for most major, impactful systems and it helps refine forecasts and gives us more data which is always good but it won't have huge ramifications for this type of system. If we were talking a Boxing Day scenario where 50 miles in track made all the difference then sure.
  6. SnoSki14
    I don't expect any drastic changes even with that data. Very strong consensus for 4 days out. There will be some waffling and minor adjustments as is normally the case but nothing more.
  7. SnoSki14
    Love seeing the GFS more subdued. It usually means the most amped models are probably too amped and the correct solution is between the two. Euro/GFS AI look to be on the money right now
  8. SnoSki14
    This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12.
  9. SnoSki14
    From 3 to 34 here. Really looking forward to tomorrow's 50F
  10. SnoSki14
    Ugh the sleetstorm from hell
  11. SnoSki14
    Besides a few ticks here or there I don't see tons of changes going forward Big systems inside 5 days don't alter much.
  12. SnoSki14
    I'd go 6-10 or 8-12
  13. SnoSki14
    That would be the biggest storm in years. If you're complaining about that then find a new hobby
  14. SnoSki14
    I wonder if models are holding onto the primary too long.
  15. SnoSki14
    That's only for weenies on FB & Twitter
  16. SnoSki14
    I smell a biggie on the horizon.
  17. SnoSki14
    This model did really well inside 5 days with the last system and its performance is beating the regular op models
  18. SnoSki14
    It did really well with the last system for us in Jersey vs the GFS OP (too amped) and Euro OP (suppressed).
  19. SnoSki14
    Wow look at that coverage
  20. SnoSki14
    They can but the initial wall of snow is very likely...unless models suddenly flip to suppressed again
  21. SnoSki14
    Good to have a mix of amped plus less amped solutions across models.
  22. SnoSki14
    This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it.
  23. SnoSki14
    Worst case we still see a significant amount of snow
  24. SnoSki14
    Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.
  25. SnoSki14
    I think it's more likely it comes in like a wall and turns to sleet at the end as dry slot comes through.
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