RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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Everything posted by RUNNAWAYICEBERG
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Pretty nuts how we get 600mile nw trends from day 5 in the heart of winter but in a transitional month typical for producing fireworks the track is locked in for 5 days barely missing southeast... Really?
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Start the thread.
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Not even a subtle favorable trend thru 84 huh?
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It really wasn’t a shift. In fact a good cluster of w/nw members.
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It’s not always exact as you know. Phasers are complicated so I just wouldn’t go lay down in front of an 18 wheeler at d4, esp for se zones, is all I’m saying.
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I find the offshore systems, that do trend nw, to do so inside d3. Could be selective memory but let’s also not forget the Mar 17 system that crushed NNE, which nyc was suppose to get 12-24” at d2, trend nw. Nam score. Debating semantics I guess but this has a few days before the writing is on the wall imo. N stream phase jobs aren’t necessarily handled easily by models, generally speaking.
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Yes but not at d4/5.
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We just have to keep it within a reasonable range over the next two days where a slight improvement thereafter, with several key features, could give some of us a good shot. I mean... we’re talking like 100 miles, depending on guidance, on good impact vs minimal impact.
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Agree.
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I’d rather see improvements like this prior to it reaching the BM so baby steps at d4.5 is good enough, for now.
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What did you think again?
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The ridge kinda prevents that by squeezing the flow on the backside. If it eased up some then the northern vort has room to drop in faster, imo, and the whole thing curls nw some.
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Yup, kicked.
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We see that pinching of the ridge on most guidance that just doesn’t allow this thing to curl nw. Always something...
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The ridge fold over squash starting be problematic.
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UK all the waaaay....
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If this was d2 then the writing is on the wall. Just give it until Wed before you run yourself over in your own patrol car.
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Yea but man that is so close and at d4/5...not like anyone wants ideal solutions now, do they?
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Nah. h5 kinda kicks east.
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CMC trying...
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Yea. The south vort was better so a good step there. Plenty of time to fit the pieces together. Regardless, fun to track a legit threat again...wherever it goes.
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What a bomb too. So close yet so far. ots continues to be the most likely scenario. Just bet on that and maybe someone gets lucky in 4 days.
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H5 would be close to delivering. Hard to tell but the whole thing was better tilted for a closer solution.
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And they were the furthest se package and jumped to being the furthest nw in 2 runs. Of course 6z they jumped back se lol. Don’t trust that.
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gefs are actually better looking than the eps now.
