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Hurricane Agnes

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  1. Hurricane Agnes
    Nawwww... not lambasting you. Just cracking up at this - I know it can be hard to find overall long-term forecasters who regularly post blogs without the hype, so I often just look for those who focus on certain weather events (like Levi Cowan when tropical cyclones are in the area and he does his video discussions on tropical tidbits - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) or for winter, I'll often check here - https://www.severe-weather.eu/frontpage/welcome-to-severe-weather-europe/ where they are monitoring for SSWEs that foretell PV intrusion into the CONUS. They had their first discussion post on that here - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-cooling-forecast-winter-2022-2023-influence-united-states-europe-fa/ Their 2022/2023 initial forecast (using 3 different models including the EC) - https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-2022-2023-season-first-look-united-states-europe-fa/ Their mention of NOAA's current expectation with this 3-pete La Nina -
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    He's gone complete loon so point taken. And if you act now (and use the special code), you can get the Ya'll o meter for 10% off!!!!!!
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    I didn't even bother looking at any of the rest of his stuff (especially since he was hawking his "Ya'll o Meter" snow measuring stick). I take heart that he at least admits that mets are in a rare profession where they can "get it wrong and still keep their jobs".
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    The image still for that video has that map with the "4ft of snow" area carved out with us in it but nowhere in the actual video does it have that for here. He had something along the line of 2ft - 3ft, which is our usual average/range anyway.
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    LOL The ENSO patterns seem to shift based on the strength of the El Nino or La Nina too and it will also depend on the PV and what manages to ooze down here out of the north. I think he did give a reasonable call though. I made it up to 73 today as a high, just after 9 am before the rain moved in, and so far have 0.54" in the bucket from today's round. It's currently an overcast and misty 71 with dp 70 and yes, I also had to give up and turn the AC on due to the soup (the fan just wasn't doing it).
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    Have been getting light rain with 0.11 in the bucket at post time. Temp is 70 with dp 69.
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    Made it up to 81 as a high yesterday and bottomed out at 68 this morning. You can feel the humidity now with the dp rise. It's currently 72 and overcast with some occasional droplets falling from the sky, and with dp 68.
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    That's a baby! A Red-tailed hawk I believe. He's gonna be big one day! I've been seeing (and hearing) them flying around here. Forgot about that Tonga explosion. Just found this just published by NASA's JPL last month which describes how that differed from previous volcanic eruptions in terms of potential atmospheric changes (the sheer amounts of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere from it vs other volcanoes that were spewing dust and ash) - https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere In any case as an obs, I had my first below-60 low of 57 this morning since June 29 (which back then was a 59). When I popped out early this morning to look at the Full Harvest Moon as it was starting to set, the "fall" feel was definitely there. It's' currently mostly sunny and 72 with dp 63 and some wispy cirrus scattered about.
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    Made it up to 78 as a high yesterday and had a low of 60 this morning. The humidity has stayed reasonable in any case. It's currently mostly sunny and 75 with dp 62. The PAC has had quite a few cyclones the past couple seasons, which has been surprising to me. But NCEP is calling for a 3-pete La Nina (with an assumption of moving to ENSO neutral next spring... but then they said the same thing last year too....lol). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml 91% through November and 80% through to January (and ~54% through to March) - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/september-2022-la-niña-update-it’s-q-time
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    Bottomed out at 62 this morning and with the mostly sunny skies, the temp has recovered to 69 with dp 63.
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    My high yesterday ended up being just after midnight at 76 and my low this morning was 68. And it has stayed around that temp, +/- a couple degrees, much of the day with overcast and mist. I did get some kind of brief shower between 2 - 3 am that deposited 0.01", but the on and off sprinkles today may have been enough to occasionally wet the walk, but were not measurable otherwise - i.e., of the 40 drop variety. High today was 71 and it's currently 69 and overcast with dp 66.
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    I'm about 5 miles east of Plymouth Meeting. We had puddles here but the top soil took it all in. So now at least the ground might be saturated should anything significant come afterwards, and bring a more serious concern of flooding. The Wissahickon Creek (at the mouth) is still getting plenty of contributory run-off from the little feeder creeks in my neighborhood and out in Montco (gauge image from 4 pm). The Schuylkill was slow to respond (must have been running relatively low) and has responded to the Wissahickon dump + whatever is pouring in from upstream in Montco. It's still a couple feet below flood stage at the gauge near the Water Works but flood stage is ~10.5 ft (gauge image as of 3 pm). Haven't heard what it was back in Montco (like Norristown) where there tends to be more flooding of it. There's a low or something sitting right over us and you see that circulation with another band to the west. I can feel it. Temp here has crept back up a bit to 71 with dp 70.
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    There are still a few little bandettes to the NW that might pass over me but if nothing comes from those, I finished up with a whopping 4.16" in an 11 hour period, most of it coming between 6 am - 8 am. The cold front has apparently been passing through and the temp is now down to 69 with overcast skys, and dp 68.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
    Still have a moderate rain (currently ~3/4"/hr) and have breached the 4" mark and am at 4.05" at post time. Temp 71/dp 70.
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    That was reported by a trained spotter as "4.4" heavy snow". I looked that town up on a map and it's up in the mountains but it may have been coded wrong and it was supposed to be "4.4" heavy rain" (unless the spotter is maybe way up near the summit of a mountain somewhere ). Current temps for that area are being shown as "71".
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    Mt. Holly has FAR SE PA and adjacent NJ counties to the east, circled for the heavier rain. I'm now under moderate rain with 3.87" in the bucket and making a run for 4" (a month's worth in just over 8 hours).
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    Now down getting variable light-moderate rain with 3.68" in the bucket so far for the event. Temp is 71 with dp 70.
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    Wow. Am at 3.52" now at post time. Wissahickon is at flood stage. Temp/dp at 70.
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    The area now under multiple hazards - FFW, FW, FA. Am now at 3.05" for the event so far at post time and my Wydmoor Montco sis texted to say the streets were flooded in her township. And WTAF???? 4" of snow in "Ringown, PA" (Schuylkill County). It's SW of Wilkes-Barre.
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    Have been under heavier returns now and getting > 1.75"/hr rates. Have 1.52" in the bucket at post time with temp 70/dp 70.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    New FFW lofted over me now - Currently have 0.49" and temp 72/dp 71.
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    FFW lofted adjacent about 9 miles to the west of MBY - Am finally getting heavier rain now and currently have 0.37" in the bucket. Temp is 72 with dp 72.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    So after all that potential appearing with the band last evening, the result? Nada. Not 40 drops, not even a single drop. I did have steamy windows. Finally started getting some measurable between 1 - 4 am for a total of 0.05" so far. Currently 73 and misty, with dp 72.
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    Sitting under virga and 80, with dp 67.
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    Bottomed out at 71 this morning and made it up to 88 as a high (which might have hit 90 if it hadn't been overcast on and off much of the day). It's currently cloudy and 83 with dp 67. The rain band looks wide and solid out west but we'll see how much survives of the front edge of it this evening and overnight before the main event (supposedly) gets underway tomorrow.
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