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Hurricane Agnes

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  1. Hurricane Agnes
    18z GFS has a little something down here along I95 but the kicker is the last panel a couple days before New Years. lol
  2. Hurricane Agnes
    I was just up your way around the time you posted this (at Assi Plaza) and saw the tell-tale "storm incoming" hazy deck of cirrus with sun trying to blaze through. Actually made it up to 40 as a high (degree warmer than yesterday's high) after a low of 27. I saw Springfield Township did some brining earlier today. Am thinking it's more to reduce the potential for black ice with the event supposedly getting going during morning rush after a cold overnight and antecedent cold roads... plus a forecast of some kind of mix to start (including IP) for down this way. I know they use their own trucks to do it. Also wanted to throw the 12z Ukie in for its snow forecast for this upcoming event through to Saturday.
  3. Hurricane Agnes
    18z hi-res EC (only up to 90 hours) shows the low really tucked in but then still wraps cold air in over I95 (but I expect it means some kind of mix).
  4. Hurricane Agnes
    To compare - the 18z NBM -
  5. Hurricane Agnes
    18z GEFS showing an obvious north focus for the greatest amounts of frozen by the weekend.
  6. Hurricane Agnes
    Could be a mid-range blip. Will have to see what the 0z says... 2009 - 2010 was an El Nino winter but anytime you have some kind of tucked coastal, it's gonna wrap in too much warm air just inland. If you get a juiced up clipper with enough intensity and antecedent cold air, you could get walloped as the ocean moisture wraps in around the low and loses the battle with the cold air as the low approaches the coast. This thing almost looks like an overrunning precip event pulling moisture out of the GOM first before it spins something off the coast.
  7. Hurricane Agnes
    It's not just La Nina and a "warm" ocean. It's still December and unless there are some really anomalous cold outbreaks early in fall, the ocean isn't really going to hit it's coldest temps until well into February, which is the typical lag.
  8. Hurricane Agnes
    18z GFS is depicting some wrap-around snow as the low departs Friday/Saturday. As some quick obs, I made it up to 41 today after a low of 33. Had a little drive-by rain shower early this morning for 0.01" and with 0,11" yesterday, ended up with a 0.12" 2-day total. Skies were unsettled in general today with the sun fighting to appear and then giving up. Currently 37 with dp 31
  9. Hurricane Agnes
    Finally catching up in the other threads. Excellent pic, framing, and timing! The kind of pic that people make into posters.
  10. Hurricane Agnes
    Some RERs for record warm low at some sites yesterday - My own "low" for Wednesday was 51 just before midnight last night. My high for yesterday was 55 and I got another 0.01" of leftover rain for a total of 0.12", and 0.98" as a 2-day event total. It's currently 48, partly cloudy with a Full Cold Moon setting, and dp 46.
  11. Hurricane Agnes
    My Monday high was 46 and yesterday's was 56 after a low of 47 and 0.86" of rain. This morning netted an additional 0.11" of rain so far (for a 0.97" 2-day event total), with a mild low of 53 so far. Mt. Holly noted that multiple CWA climate sites may tie or break record high mins for today (I suppose dependent on the timing of the cold front later tonight and bleeding in of that colder air before midnight) - I was surprised not to see fog earlier this morning - mostly mist - BUT the fog has rolled in now and is under 1/10th of a mile in places. It's currently 54 with dp 53 and foggy/misty.
  12. Hurricane Agnes
    Ended up with a 57 high Saturday, followed by a 43 high yesterday after a low of 28. This morning the bottom fell out with a low of 23 and scrape-able frost on all the cars. It's currently 24 with dp 23 and a deck of cirrus overhead. In other news, both the GFS and EC progs for the MJO don't inspire a potential for a major cold dump during that 3rd week of December even with the NAO fairly negative during that period, although a couple GEFS & EPS members appear in phase 8 for this week. (Ensemble GFS) (Operational GFS)
  13. Hurricane Agnes
    Well remember that everything is pushed a couple months later. So spring is the new winter. You'll see the verification in March. Cold front did start advecting cooler and drier air in. Currently down to 50 with dp 39.
  14. Hurricane Agnes
  15. Hurricane Agnes
    The line came through here giving me another 0.18" of rain (no convection though) for a total of 0.67" for that 2-round event. The temp didn't drop off much yet as I think the front is still a bit west of here. Currently misty and 55 with dp 53.
  16. Hurricane Agnes
    Sun popped out about 2:30 pm an the temp is probably sitting at the day's high (which is 57, with dp 54 so far) before the cold front comes through. There's some kind of line to the NW that might be associated with the front.
  17. Hurricane Agnes
    You are definitely in Heat Miser's kingdom (although further north up in the mountains where Flagstaff is, they do get frozen precip)! I ended up with a high of 47 Tues, and of 46 on the last day of November after a low of 37. And December did start out December-like with highs/lows of 41/30 and 44/26, along with some dps that were in the 20s. This morning's low was a big non-diurnal change with a 43 just after midnight and the temp rising slowly ever since. So far with the initial round of rain pretty much moving towards the coast, I got 0.49" from it and it's currently an overcast and misty 55 with dp 54.
  18. Hurricane Agnes
    Some updated OBS and a couple links for winter progs by an EU site I like to read as they monitor SSWs. Sunday's high/low were 59/40, where the high didn't come until almost 6:30 pm after 0.43" of rain. Monday's high/low were 56/39 with quite a bit of changeable skies but mostly on the cloudy side. The breezes finally went calm long enough to drop the temp this morning to my low of 31 and there was definitely frost out there with a dp of 30 at that time. The breeze has picked up again and it's currently partly cloudy and 40 with dp 31. This is the site that I like to look at this time of year - https://www.severe-weather.eu/ Their latest blog posts - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-pattern-december-blocking-cold-air-polar-vortex-split-united-states-europe-fa/ https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2022-2023-snowfall-predictions-final-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-cold-start-fa/
  19. Hurricane Agnes
    Thanksgiving temps were in the rare mild range as many years it has been bundle-up cold and even with flakes flying. But my high Thursday was 55. Ended up reaching 57 yesterday with 0.02" of rain, and since the sun came out in the afternoon, I was able to get some outdoor window wreaths up, albeit with some windy conditions to deal with. And after a 39 low this morning, it looks like 55 will be my high for today. It's currently 52 and clear at sunset (with a crescent moon also setting) and with dp 33.
  20. Hurricane Agnes
    And the little puffs of breeze overnight finally died down after 6 am and I bottomed out at 32 about 15 minutes before sunrise. It's currently partly sunny and 33 with a thin deck of cirrus and a dp of 30.
  21. Hurricane Agnes
    Weather recap as the temps continue to moderate - I eventually had a high of 41 on Monday, 52 on Tuesday, and 55 yesterday, with Tues/Wed. lows of 28 & 30. This morning's low may finally be above freezing. Currently clear and 38 with dp up from earlier in the week, at 32.
  22. Hurricane Agnes
    Bottomed out at 22 this morning, the coldest since March 28 of this year. The winds went calm overnight which aided in that radiational cooling. It's currently sunny with blue skies and 37, but with a dp that is still vacillating between 9 and 10, so the cold dry arctic air is still making its presence felt.
  23. Hurricane Agnes
    Beat me to it! I managed to just tap 34 IMBY today as a "high" just before 4:30 pm and that was it. That's like January weather. It's currently a clear and breezy 31 with dp 10.
  24. Hurricane Agnes
    Made it up to 40 as a high yesterday and bottomed out this morning at a "warmer"-than- yesterday-morning 30 due to the wind gusts overnight, so not ideal for radiational cooling. It's currently sunny and 32 and don't expect to get much warmer as the dp is now getting close to or in the upper single digits at 10 (9.7). Humidifiers working overtime!
  25. Hurricane Agnes
    Ended up with a high of 43 yesterday and got my first flakage of the season to boot. Was at the movies last night in Flourtown and when I left to go there, it was around 40 with some sprinkles. Then outside the theater with the active breeze, the flakes were noticeable (took a few minutes for me to point them out to my sister because the winds were blowing almost horizontally which made it harder to see but when it let up, they were definitely there). After the movie, it was already down to 35. This morning I registered my first "hard freeze" (temp = 28 and below) with a 26. It's recovering now and up to a partly cloudy 32, with dp an arctic 20 (had to start pulling out the humidifiers yesterday because it got down to 22% inside ).
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