Hurricane Agnes

GEFS mean has a classic coastal low but the mean temps are all over the place while that is moving by.

There's too much wild stuff going on in that run. I think it (and other models) are having a problem with how (including amplification) and where the midwest trough will set up as that will determine where these shortwaves go. If that arctic trough really amps, it could generate lake cutters or app runners. If it is less amped, the lows can develop further east.

LOL Tornado weather!

Well the sun has been trying to break through and I think the rain is done here. Ended up with 0.52" for today and 2.35" as a 2-day event total. Looks like my high for today came just before 2 am at 46 and it's currently overcast with some breaks in the cloud deck, and a breezy 42, with dp 40.

Included my 0.1" sleet car roof topper from yesterday's event onset in my sig but today the rain continues and I have picked up an additional 0.17" this morning since my last report, giving me 0.39" for today, and 2.22" as the 2-day event total. It's currently a breezy and misty 42 with dp 42.

6z GFS basically shows some wild stuff - an active pattern of lows running along the southern CONUS and in this run, it seems to try to spin up a Miller A and then a couple of Miller Bs starting next week and into Christmas. I guess you could say it's throwing spaghetti at a wall and one strand might stick. I know pretty much all the models have issues in the mid-range, which IMHO, is really a shame.

Ended up with 1.83" of rain yesterday and currently at 0.22" this morning for a 2-day event total so far of 2.05". My low yesterday was 31 and I hit my high of 44 just before 7 pm. Overnight, the temp had continued to rise hitting 46 just before 2 am, and finally started to drop. Currently a windy and misty 43 with dp 43.

Getting moderate to occasional heavy rain now and am up to 1.20" so far. Temp continues to climb and is at 44 with dp 44.

Temp continues to be non-diurnal and has risen to 41 with dp 41. The light to moderate rain is still ongoing and I currently have 0.74" for the event and happened to also notice that I also have 52.00" for the year so far at post time, which is way above normal! The winds have started to pick up a bit too.

Temp still rising here in NW Philly and now up to 40 with dp 39 and 0.61" in the bucket with continued light rain. Low is getting closer to the coast so will see how much the coastal fires up (if it doe).

12z EC Christmas Day look -

Still getting light/moderate rain with temp now up to 39 and dp 38. Have 0.46" of rain so far for the event. The low has been slow going.

Looks like the Canadian bombs it out but still south/east. Waiting for the Euro to get to those hours.

Still all rain here in NW Philly with temp up to 35 and dp 35. Have 0.26" in the bucket.

NBM splits the difference and suggests almost (but not quite) Warning level amounts for Philly metro.

Finally got some bucket-tips and have 0.04 so far (edit - just tipped again) with this round 1 (pre-coastal) and the light rain continues. Temp still hanging at 34 and dp has now crept up to 32.

Down to very light misty rain here. Bucket still not tipped yet but the earlier IP was enough to add a very light coating on car tops. Currently bopping between 33 and 34 with dp 29.

Now getting plain rain although not enough yet to tip the bucket. Temp still holding at 34 but dp continues to creep up and is at 29.

My Upper Darby sis just texted that she is getting sleet with flakes mixing in and a temp of 33. The precip. just started up here and am getting pingers with some rain mixed in, and it's 34 with dp 28.

Leading edge is just overhead here but getting virga as the air was pretty dry just ahead of it. It's starting to moisten up now and temp is 34 with dp 27 and overcast.

6z GFS has some token stuff on the ground in Philly metro (I think the NBM is discounting this run at the moment).

Don't know if I need stronger coffee but it looks like the 6z GFS just made a slider out of the 12/23 storm (suppression?) and now it is OTS.

I created an OBS thread for the event - We are starting out at or slightly below freezing IMBY, which is actually a bit "warmer" than the past couple mornings (some due to the cloud deck vs previous mornings).

Current obs - Tem 32 with dp 24 and overcast.

That's what our Streets Dept. here in Philly says - it's done to keep the snow from sticking to the road surface although it also lowers the freezing point of any melted precipitation as long as there is a decent concentration of it and no heavy rain to wash it away. But then they also claim they don't plow here until there is supposedly 3" or more that has accumulated on the roads and often by then, the damage is already done after the accidents pile up from slipping and sliding cars. And if you have like what is forecast here - heavy rain - (and worse, rain on either end of the event time frame) putting any type of treatment down means it all gets washed away. So I guess it's all in the timing of it with a focus needed on getting the overpasses and bridges treated well.