Hurricane Agnes

Flood Watch just issued for part of the CWA - Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 DEZ001-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-220830- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0006.221222T1800Z-221223T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware- Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Wilmington, Philadelphia, Morrisville, Media, Norristown, Kennett Square, Camden, Glassboro, Mount Holly, Doylestown, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Pennsville, Lansdale, and West Chester 327 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware...southern New Jersey...and southeast Pennsylvania...including the following areas...in northern Delaware...New Castle. In southern New Jersey...Camden, Gloucester, Northwestern Burlington, and Salem. In southeast Pennsylvania...Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, and Philadelphia. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood $$

The Korean War (UN police action) Armistice Treaty was finally signed in 1953, so they still had that need! I grew up hearing about the "rolling hills of Chester County" yet you had "rolling steel" there too, with plants that had popped up along the rivers and creeks for over a century and a half. Another interesting article on that steel plant in Coatesville. And IIRC, W.T. Gordon's son worked at that plant back in the late 1800s/early 1900s.

Let me posit something - and it is related to the deep dive you recall I did of the Coatesville observer W.T. Gordon. Oddly enough I just never knew there were steel plants just outside of Philly in Coatesville because so much focus was always put on U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh and Bethlehem Steel up in the ABE area. I should have probably known better given we had the big Budd plant here in the city cranking out steel parts for cars, planes, and for what was more talked about when I was growing up - trains. When you look at your gathered temp rises and falls, you'll see that interestingly enough, they correspond with a build up leading to a peak right during the main part of WW2. The Coatesville plant was apparently making rolled steel plates where there was mention in an article I just read, would eventually be used in shipbuilding. Of course we had the Navy Yard here down in South Philly with a massive amount of shipbuilding going on all during that period. I.e., all the "Rosie the Riveters". I even had one of my aunts and her friends who briefly worked down at the Navy Yard during that period in the '40s. Once the war was over, boom! All that heavy manufacturing dropped off precipitously and eventually switched to a different type manufacturing output - homes and suburban "office parks"! And as the suburban developments expanded, someone "paved paradise and put up a parking lot" creating some mini-heat islands where they didn't exist before. This was all the post-WWII migration from the cities to the rim counties and eventually into what was dubbed "ex-burbia" (the more rural farm areas). With the recognition of that impact, you have more environmental awareness now and all those undeveloped and former rural farming areas stripped for development, have been slowly replanted, and that has helped to mitigate what was overall warming trend in that area's microclimate. In any case, as my obs - after a 29 low yesterday, I made it up to a breezy 39 as a high. It's currently 28 and clear with dp 20.

There's a good write-up for next week here - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/coldest-arctic-airmass-winter-season-major-storm-christmas-snow-forecast-united-states-canada-mk/ It did confirm to me that the lakes are still mostly ice-free so there is still potential for big lake effect snow events (some that could send streamers into the northern CWA if the winds blow the right way). This is definitely La Nina-ish weather.

6z GFS 2nd verse, same as the 1st...

0z GFS did move the system east making it more the apps runner but like the other globals, is showing some kind of overrunning rain ahead of the arctic front.

It may run into drier air and evaporate. Temp here is 39 with dp 26....

18z GFS has a buncha take-your-pick storms rolling along the bottom of that arctic high... You know it's bad when the clown map has less than the 10:1.

Ukie has some of the storm in range but seems to be on the arctic blast train...

12z Canadian doing the same amplification scheme.

I caved and being it was for a good cause, I went on and bought the Iggles "A Philly Special Christmas" album - https://phillyspecialchristmas.com/ Since yesterday was their "final" (in quotes) offering, it won't be delivered until sometime in February but that's okay.... The album cover artwork is a riot. What was also hilarious was the vid of the players who got together to make that (over this past summer) and some behind the scenes of their rehearsals and recording sessions! This sortof suggests to me why they might be 12-1. Definitely some great camaraderie there.

They both do try to spin up some kind of coastal thing though but both have that bomb-ey low out west.

!2z EC doing a cutter... I think both globals are looking at that arctic amplification. Will have to see if that relaxes later next week.

12z Euro is running so will see which way that goes! As an obs, my low was 35 this morning and my high was 43 just after 11:30 this morning and then the CAA started coming in. Am currently 41 with dp 27 and an unsettled sky.

The unevenness of the precipitation this year highlights how we were feast or famine. We are already about a foot above normal for rainfall this year.

I think this was the "a lot of rain" option run that Mt. Holly mentioned this morning.

LOL 12z GFS generated a blue norther for TX and that extreme amplification created an apps runner/lGL cutter bomb (although verbatim, it looked like it was trying to get some kind of coastal disturbance going that had its strength sucked away by the inland bomb). And we know these models are going to go all over the place from now until at least Tuesday/Wednesday.

GEFS mean has a classic coastal low but the mean temps are all over the place while that is moving by.

There's too much wild stuff going on in that run. I think it (and other models) are having a problem with how (including amplification) and where the midwest trough will set up as that will determine where these shortwaves go. If that arctic trough really amps, it could generate lake cutters or app runners. If it is less amped, the lows can develop further east.

LOL Tornado weather!

Well the sun has been trying to break through and I think the rain is done here. Ended up with 0.52" for today and 2.35" as a 2-day event total. Looks like my high for today came just before 2 am at 46 and it's currently overcast with some breaks in the cloud deck, and a breezy 42, with dp 40.

Included my 0.1" sleet car roof topper from yesterday's event onset in my sig but today the rain continues and I have picked up an additional 0.17" this morning since my last report, giving me 0.39" for today, and 2.22" as the 2-day event total. It's currently a breezy and misty 42 with dp 42.

6z GFS basically shows some wild stuff - an active pattern of lows running along the southern CONUS and in this run, it seems to try to spin up a Miller A and then a couple of Miller Bs starting next week and into Christmas. I guess you could say it's throwing spaghetti at a wall and one strand might stick. I know pretty much all the models have issues in the mid-range, which IMHO, is really a shame.

Ended up with 1.83" of rain yesterday and currently at 0.22" this morning for a 2-day event total so far of 2.05". My low yesterday was 31 and I hit my high of 44 just before 7 pm. Overnight, the temp had continued to rise hitting 46 just before 2 am, and finally started to drop. Currently a windy and misty 43 with dp 43.

Getting moderate to occasional heavy rain now and am up to 1.20" so far. Temp continues to climb and is at 44 with dp 44.