Hurricane Agnes

Made it up to 45 as a high yesterday and after a 37 low, am at my high for the day so far, of 44, with dp 42. Have gotten 0.05" of precipitation through the day and it's currently misty and still 44.

The 6zs mix it up a bit (GFS wetter and NAM drier)...

Across the 0zs, they all throw some down into the metro area -

12z GFS (comparison with previous and then another day out)...

I think Ray worked a deal with the models to throw some lollipops at his parents' house in Ewing.

Now getting all light rain here with temp up to 36 and dp 35. Have 0.09" for the day so far at post time (0.39" for the 2-day event).

6z EC to go with the earlier maps. All of the guidance is showing the effect of that bombing nor'easter in downstate & eastern NY state.

Now getting all flakes. Initially there was about a 0.1" slushy wet dusting on the cars but there is continual melting going on. Currently wet SN- and 35 with dp 34.

Am near and just under a blob and getting a rain/snow mix. Temp is 34 with dp 34.

Ended up with a high of 46 yesterday and 0.30" of rain. Currently 37 and with dp 34 and mist, plus have 0.01" rain recorded. 6z GFS & NAM (GFS at NAM's max time). Edit to throw in the 0z EC (at the same timeframe).

NAMed with EC!

Good early morning (from where you are right now with the scorpions )! Sounds like you are describing what can happen with a nor'easter where the western side would be leeward to the moisture - the rain shadow! As an obs, I made it up to 46 for a high yesterday and bottomed out at 30 this morning. Currently partly sunny and 33.

6z GFS, 12k NAM, and the almost-in-range 3k NAM (just short) for the weekend.

This has a great discussion of the aftermath of the recent SSWE and pattern change - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-blocking-system-polar-vortex-collapse-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ The thing is, at least here in SE PA, there is that borderline temp thing and getting the phasing in the right place.

I had nothing but "liquid" here and not enough to even register on the weather station. My low so far has been 34 and am currently overcast, misty and 35 with dp 27.

But by then we will be well into spring and moving to summer. Meanwhile, the NAO is heading for neutral to positive in that storm's time frame. I know the NAO is less an indicator out of met winter, but this past year, no matter how negative it has been, it has been unable to overcome other factors.

La Nina is not dead yet. Excerpt from the last update - The Great Lakes never froze over let alone have much frozen on them at all. As of last month, there was only about 7% ice coverage on them (which did make them open for business for the huge lake effect events that we saw whenever a PV dropped down) - https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2941/Low-ice-on-the-Great-Lakes-this-winter What HAS changed is the MJO, which is favorable to get more cold air down into the CONUS. But the equinox is in a couple weeks.

The issue had been lack of cold air and a warm ocean. The models have been unable to deal with a three-peat La Nina pattern as we have seen since November chasing "10-day storms". The surface maps tell us we are going to get "something" but what the p-type is will continually be up in the air. ETA - the below has been the case all winter -

0z Euro MECS, 0z GFS slider!

Both 3k & 12k 18z NAMs. Also as an obs given today was a rare sunny day (although it did start clouding up on and off), I bottomed out at 36 this morning and am currently at my high of 52 with dp 29. (edit to add in the 18z GFS that I meant to post earlier)

6z GFS.

The options (12z) for next weekend (when I was planning to attempt to go to the Flower Show) -

As long as we get normal or close to normal precipitation, that helps to stave off triple digit temps in the summer. If we get into a dry begets dry pattern, then the temps can soar fairly quickly as there would be no need to waste energy and time evaporating ground moisture. As an obs, I ended hitting 47 for a high yesterday after a 33 low, and had a trace snow and a total 0.83" liquid (mostly rain). This morning I got an additional 0.37" (so far), for a 2-day event total of 1.20". Currently misty with low stratus and 45 with dp 45.

No more mix but just some light drizzle with temp at 37 and dp 34. Have 0.01" in the bucket so far.