Hurricane Agnes

Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued for parts of the area (it will probably miss me to the south by a few miles) - Otherwise it just tapped 89 here after a low of 67. Currently 87 and overcast with dews that have held in the low 70s much of today.

I saw a tweet with a corrected version.

Sandy took out the remaining 4 street trees that survived after Irene took out 6 others on that street the year before.

Josh is up in the air on his way to Abaco per his latest tweet -

It's moving (MW last 24 hours) -

Overall nice late summer day yesterday with a high of 82 after a low of 66 here. Today is supposed to be the warmest of the near/long term but I don't think I'll make it to 90 here today, especially if the overcast this morning manages to persist (at least in part) during the day. Currently mostly cloudy and 70 (where I actually had a low of 67 around 1:30 am and have been experiencing non-diurnal warming since).

I expect the government of that island may end up operating out of Nassau, which got a less significant blow (although had significant flooding despite no direct hit). The airport there was open but with obvious delays.

His 4th tweet (around the time of the previous ones) -

He had 3 tweets. The other 2 -

He does have a show premiere coming up - I think September 15.

Adding my here!

Well I got shafted from the last line. Got an additional 0.10" for a total of 0.17" for the day so far. Managed to make it up to 84 before the rain and am currently overcast but clearing and a steamy 73 with dews now in the upper 60s.

Wow. You really got into a precip hole. I at least managed 4.39" for August and I know I was fringed or got missed by a bunch of storms.

I think that when it gets up here it will probably zoom on out and not sit and spin - unless the timing gets messed up and it misses getting ingested into any troughs or fronts that would normally sweep it away to the NE. I actually got fringed by the cluster of storms that have been coming through this morning - the heaviest going just a few miles to my north. I did get 0.07" out of it (so far) and it's currently 72 (after a low of 68 and a high before the rain of 75). Had a pretty nice day yesterday too with some breezes, a 64 low and 82 high.

If that latest update verified, it would definitely be a nightmare - i.e., coastal southeast Florida appears to be in the relative center of the cone's extrapolated "central line". There are strips of barrier islands all up and down the coast and with it being low-lying and swampy anyway, any storm surge would probably travel quite a bit inland. Just seeing the real-time storm surge video from Michael's landfall in the pan handle last year, was jaw-dropping.

If Dorian decides to come up the coast, you might see something. As an obs, after a low of 60 this morning (thought it could have gone a bit lower here but didn't), am now up to 85 with dps that have slowly increased through the morning to the low 60s (after low 50s yesterday). Still... there's been a perfectly blue sky so far today so it looks like a great start to the long Labor Day weekend.

Oh geez. Let's hope that doesn't verify although I would think that "look" would be welcomed in winter around these parts. Made it up to 81 here today after a cool low of 62. Very different today than the past couple days by not having any overcast/marine influence issues. Pretty much blue sky all day (with an occasional cloud here and there) and low humidity to boot, with dews in the low 50s. Currently 77 and sunny.

I think because of incidents like this (1/26 - 1/27/15) - http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Meteorologists_apologize_for_busted_forecast.html Many were hugging the Euro and dissing the lowly GFS - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/weather/Snow-What-went-wrong.html I think that is why today, you are seeing folks bemoaning the rise and fall of the mighty Euro.... and as much as we laugh about being "NAM'd", I expect that sometimes the NAM does have the right idea but with the details obscured in the overdoneness of a burnt steak on the barbie. You can hunt around and find the pbp thread(s) here in the forum of that 2015 flizzard.

Maybe GOES-16 will help (or not) - https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES-R-Launch Still a ways off from what impact that will have in the future, but it will have some just due to the resolution of its instruments. I think a lot of what we see today is also driven by the 24/7 world where schools, businesses, and governmental entities increasingly demand precise measures in order to activate certain responses to the more severe sensible weather (i.e., closures, postponements, evacuations) and that leads to model-hugging in order to tease out those numbers and report them as soon as possible. However we have seen time and time again a long range model "see" something 10 days out and then lose it in the mid-range, and then resurrect it again in the short range/nowcast period. IMHO, that type of whiplash seems to cause some to overthink or lose the forest for the trees. Overall, I doubt at this point that "weather" for mass consumption will ever go back to appealing to met fans. TWC used to do it but long sense decided to leave that niche world and go for drama over substance.

The true story (need to go to youtube to view) -

When a storm threat is on the horizon, folks reappear rather quickly and do some great pbps of the models. The past year, winter weather lovers got a screw job. There is just a different climatological thing going on here compared to D.C. or NYC metro.

The "pile" will make itself. Won't need to shovel to create one with this storm.

There you are! People thought our resident squirrel fled to chase a blizzard elsewhere!

Because this - Almost 37 years ago I had to make a decision during college orientation on whether to major in meteo (a love since I was 8) and chemistry (something I was aceing in HS). And due to the mimimal job prospects back in the late '70s for meteorologists, I chose chemistry as the practical major because it offered more work options. I am on track to retire next year after 30+ years. Coming to boards like this, I got direct or link access to all sorts of resources - including models and working meteorologists - allowing me to digest someone's analysis - whether red-tagger or meteo student or "advanced" hobbyist, and then do a check on what I thought I saw and compare - just by reading. Part of the problem that happens here is that the minute someone makes an attempt at a model analysis and gets it "wrong", a pile-on ensues, the degree of which dependent on how bold and perhaps (overly) confident they were when they wrote it. And the "wrong" may have been something not really weenie but truly due to lack of experience, etc. Of course this naturally requires thicker skin but sometimes it encourages big ego posters rather than those brave enough to post and hope for a mature critique. So many of us just enjoy lurking and contributing obs or occassional opinions after review of model runs to help fill in the climatological info on the area -whether ahead, during, and post storm (or even during "quiet" periods) while we engage in our hobby. Many of us also post on other forums (including non-meteo ones) so it's not like we are all here 24/7. As it was during the eastern days, there are folks who are winter/cold-lovers and were thus absent during the summers and vice versa, with those who like severe/tropical and participate more during those seasons. But if the Admins here want to close the board to red-taggers and students only, then so be it. In the past, the single-region threads often filled up quickly during storms and there was a battle on who would start (and when) the "new thread"... as well as other nonsense of chasing people out of the regional threads who were not from there and other childish bull****. Otherwise some of you all protesteth too much.

Wow. I usually try to check in often to see what is going on and just saw this thread. There are quite a few of us who do more lurking than posting but we are here (and yes, some of us are paying members ) and when events happen, we usually pop up and chime in. But given the more benign weather patterns of late, it's been relatively quiet in here. I think after past years of threats that became a big fail and other issues like wacked-out models that caused municipal over-reactions. etc.), plus this year's El Nino handwriting-on-the-wall, then I think that's why it seems dead (with less banter and model posting). But if you look in past threads when storms were imminent and/or on-going, there has been a lot of good discussion without all the weenie and left-field bravado posts. IMHO, the microclimates here (Delaware Valley) really are a bit different, being a blend between Mid-Atlantic and NYC and I do appreciate the folks in this region providing "heads-up" posts as storms move from west -> east or south -> north. Unless the admins think this is a waste of their resources, then I don't see why it can't remain the way it is.