Hurricane Agnes

I think realistically, there isn't much if any difference between a high-end CAT 4 and a low-end CAT 5, as these terms are nothing more than artificial constructs for data categorizing purposes, where in either case, the potential damage impact is the same - catastrophic. Since "CAT 5" is the highest designation for the scale, it behooves balancing the "drama" of the term with the confirmation that it is truly sustained at that level, as there is no other category "officially" above that level. And when conditions are at the threshold of either designation and one is trying to communicate that to the public, it requires extra care to assess the risk of what might be confusing frequent category changes, while working around the media's propensity to exaggerate (for ratings). So there is a need to confirm, without doubt, that the category has truly been achieved and sustained, again with the knowledge that whether it is a high-end CAT 4 or a low-end CAT 5, the damage is the same. I do expect like what was done with the "S word" storm in 2012, there will be a "Lessons Learned" activity as part of the full reanalysis of this storm. NHC took a big hit because the existing criteria was correctly followed when that storm became post-tropical and was no longer considered a "hurricane" ("hurricane" being a term very recognizable by the lay public). However public outrage ensued because anything less than the use of that term for a storm with equivalent winds/rain/surge and damage impact, became unnecessarily confusing to the public due to the focus on the technicality of "tropical" vs "post-tropical". I.e., to the scientific met community, that storm's technical makeup and dynamics had changed ("quantitative"), but to the public, the "look" and "feel" and "impact" had not ("qualitative"). And now with climate change altering storm behavior, we are seeing storms maintain tropical characteristics further north in latitude than in the past, often due to a warmer ocean further north. So in a similar fashion, they may look at ways to more quickly but definitively declare a storm as having achieved that highest category (outside of reported wind speed at the surface through dropsondes) without compromising the science behind the confirmation. I think this would really be a good idea to do given the sudden increased frequency of such storms (and as we know here, this was the 5th one in 4 years, where in the past, this level of storm was more rare). You might recall the same issue with Hurricane Michael and a decision, after a post-storm reanalysis, to upgrade it to a CAT 5 at landfall.

Here is a heartening response from the NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) group - https://www.research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2489/A-Message-from-Craig-McLean-Hurricane-Dorian-and-Exceptional-Service

I agree we probably should but it will be doubtful that it would be done. If anything, they might consider going as far as making it a "standalone" (like EPA) or even like FEMA, particularly after the fiasco of FEMA when it was neutered after being shoved under DHS, later prompting Congress to make them a standalone agency again. In fact, since I mention EPA, they should probably be included in some standalone grouping with NOAA and USGS as you suggest.

Most likely because what they do involves monitoring conditions that might impact movement of goods - i.e., shipping (whether over land, in the air, or at sea).

In reference to the NWAS meeting going on - some tweets of note - The above in reference to NWS head Dr. Uccellini's remarks this morning regarding his public support of the Birmingham FO (video of those remarks in the tweet below and he got a standing ovation near the end of his speech when he explicitly praised the staff for doing the right thing) -

The agenda for Tuesday is here - https://nwas.org/annual-meeting-events/annual-meeting/meeting-agenda/#tuesday-glance And it looks like a pretty tight schedule. Dr. Jacobs has a 30 minute slot and then someone else is on at 8:30 am (someone presenting a research paper), so I doubt there will be any Q&A associated with his remarks. Usually keynotes at professional meetings don't have Q&As and tend to run 45 minutes or more (and often occur in a "prime time" morning slot or as part of a dinner), so this seems pretty "short" to be considered "keynote" outside of them calling it that due to his position in public service... and they have other folks scheduled to give "keynotes" after him.

I kinda thought the same thing. Got up to 82 here too, which was my high (after a low of 65). It was overcast earlier this morning but once that went away, the temps started shooting up (as did the point and click forecast temp). It's been back to overcast the past hour or so now and the temp is down to 78.

Josh started a first-person account of his Dorian experience via a twitter thread. Here is a link to the unrolled version (with 5 tweets so far) - https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1170675844815216640.html

I finally ended up with 0.20" of Dorian rain with the last of it coming through just after 10pm. But wow.... didn't realize it was going to chill down this much. My high yesterday was 68 and the low ended up at midnight at 58. But this morning it is currently down to 55 and that brush with Dorian yesterday felt like a chilly nor'easter vs a steamy tropical hurricane I guess due to it pulling down some cold Canadian air when it got sucked into the trough. Definitely a "trigger" for plants and animals that fall is coming (and I know Birds~69 is loving it ) although it's supposed to warm back up into the low - mid-80s next week.

And as expected, as Dorian continues to move away, that band pivoted around and swung back over me from the NW and I am now up to 0.18" with some light rain still going on. This is probably the "coldest" tropical storm that I've ever experienced. LOL Temp is now down to 58.

Am now up to 0.17" so far from that band. The band has moved away to the NW of me as Dorian lifts to the NE and starts it's trek away from the coast, so it's possible that the little band may pivot around and move back down here from the N and then from the NW before it pulls completely away and is history. Currently 59 and overcast.

There has been a stray band from the outer bands of Dorian sitting over the I-95 corridor since this afternoon. Am currently up to 0.12" from it so it hasn't been heavy but it has kept the temps in the low 60s. Since the last couple storms either fringed or missed me, I had to pull out the hose yesterday and of course what happens today...? Currently 61 and breezy with light rain.

Now getting some measurable (have 0.01" so far). Temp is down to 63 with a persistent breeze out of the NE and some very light stratiform rain.

Have been getting "Dorian sprinkles" here this morning (nothing measurable yet). Getting a persistent but light NE breeze and it is plenty overcast. After a low of 64 this morning, am currently just barely hitting 68.

Had a high of 77 yesterday after a low of 64, with quite a bit of high clouds and overcast, but some occasional sun. Currently 64 and overcast. There was also a beautiful yellow/orange/red/purple sunset yesterday evening (enough that it prompted one of my sisters to text a pic of it that my niece took). Am thinking that may have been Dorian-related as the moist ocean-side feeders of the storm are visible east of us here -

Don't mess with Amidala.

They didn't change it with the update unless they have to issue another correction. I would agree that I haven't seen anything higher than 81 kts with the recent drops although there is a newer recon in there still working.

Somebody was looking for you last night I think -

Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued for parts of the area (it will probably miss me to the south by a few miles) - Otherwise it just tapped 89 here after a low of 67. Currently 87 and overcast with dews that have held in the low 70s much of today.

I saw a tweet with a corrected version.

Sandy took out the remaining 4 street trees that survived after Irene took out 6 others on that street the year before.

Josh is up in the air on his way to Abaco per his latest tweet -

It's moving (MW last 24 hours) -