Hurricane Agnes

There is always that seasonal thing this time of year where I know by law here, apartment complexes are required to have the heat on by Oct. 15th but inevitably there is almost always a little cold-snap before then. lol It's now up to 36 here. I was actually a bit surprised about this frost because earlier in the week, there was quite a bit more chatter about Sunday night, but haven't heard much if anything about Sunday's low and frost/freeze potential since.

Confirmed frost on the car just after sunrise. Still currently 35 here and turned the heat on this morning for the first time this season.

Down to 35 here in Chestnut Hill. Haven't checked for frost but with the dews right around the same temp, I'm sure it may be out there around the area - or would form by sunrise.

Yeah it's down to 42 here. Mt. Holly put up a Frost Advisory for the metro area including the city and there are frost advisories/freeze warnings lofted from southern Virginia all the way up to southern Maine (I know the season already pretty much ended further north than that though). Wind went calm after around 6 pm and down it went!

Yeah it was 42 here at 4 am (48 @ midnight) and when the winds went calm, boom! Right around sunrise ~7:15, I bottomed out. Temp is moving up pretty quickly now. Up to 43. DPs have been in the upper 20s/low 30s so the air mass means business!

Turned out to be a really nice day yesterday. Low was 44 and high was 61 and breezy. Light breezes kept up much of the night but then it went calm just after 4:30am and the temp bottomed out at 37, which makes me wonder what it will do Sunday night if we get similar radiational cooling. Currently 40 and partly cloudy.

I was looking at some of the archive footage of Harvey coming into Rockaport, TX, which seemed to have become somewhat of an indicator for "damage" from a Cat 4. And although many residences were more scattered throughout the area, there were strips of densely-built homes near the waterfront that suffered both major and catastrophic damage, but not to the extreme that you see at Mexico Beach. Harvey at initial landfall had a central pressure of 937, almost 20 mb more than Michael. The geography of the Rockaport area include barrier islands that may have had some mitigation of the surge as I don't recall seeing any chaser video that showed the type of surge that Michael produced at Mexico Beach. In fact since you mention Irma, the damage that you see in Mexico Beach seems to mirror that of Barbuda & St. Maarten from Irma (which was a Cat 5 at the time it hit those islands and had a 914 - 916 mb pressure at landfall). I can't speak for the type of construction code in Barbuda or St. Maarten vs FL, but the impacts of the hurricanes on each area seem pretty comparable. You also see some similarities with Maria landfall at Yabucoa & Humacao, P.R. in terms of white-out winds/rain.

Ended up with my high for the day of 62 at midnight, and low of 49. It rebounded a bit to 57 but is now on the way down. Did have sun most of the day and then the high clouds rolled in. Currently 55 with dps in the mid-30s (haven't had that for awhile) and mostly cloudy.

Front came through after 11 pm and dropped an additional 0.15" yesterday for a total of 0.24". Also received 0.01" after midnight. High for yesterday ended up being 67 just before 10pm. Current temp is 53 with dps bopping around the low 40s.

Yes me too! Am trying to get some of my potted citrus plants sprayed with some horticultural oil before I bring them in for winter and it has literally rained almost every day since the 8th except yesterday. The temp has slowly crept up to the current 66 and it's overcast.

Had a low of 52 this morning and 0.09" of rain (so far), after which the temps started rising quickly. Currently 61 and overcast. And it does kindof feel warm out! lol

Hey Paul - You may have stumbled on this already but there is one out there called "Weather Display" http://www.weather-display.com/index.php It seems to have a rather active forum and I even noted that it had a WxSim subforum too since I think you use that as well. I can't vouch for it (with all the rest of my hobbies I wish I had the time to devote to something like this), but it might be one to try. It has a 30-day fully functional free trial to boot.

The sun attempted to make an appearance here just before it set. lol I did see some cool altostratus undulatus clouds this morning. Got up to 58 today and currently 53 and falling. With the overcast, it might not get as low overnight as it did last night and seems that more rain is progged too.

Looks like I bottomed out at 44 this morning and had a high of 56 yesterday. Currently 45 and mostly cloudy.

Thanks for posting that part too! That is where you really hear the discussion about the lack of shelter positions in Mexico Beach.

That's okay because that helps complete some of the other parts that have been posted. The original footage posted had no audio at the beginning and then had the audio resume right around the time they had pulled into the driveway of the house where they had bailed. As a sidenote, based on the post that had the location of the house, I screen capped the map and circled in red where they ended up in relation to the area (i.e., an area that is labeled as "Beacon Hill" which was about halfway between St. Joe Beach and Mexico Beach). It was probably about the worst place to be caught because of the narrow stretch of beach there and no sand bar or barrier island -

Thank you. That is when they were driving around Port St. Joe. IIRC, I think Stephen? (or whoever the other guy is in the car) mentioned something about having been there the previous week because his sister had just gotten married there last week. I think they briefly drove into the parking lot of the place where I guess the reception was, which looked out over the beach. I don't know if that part is in the video (just started watching) but it may have happened before this portion started.

After the temps hugged 50 here overnight through just before sunrise, as soon as the rain started ~6:30 am, the temp fell further here to 48. It's currently 48 and light rain. Have 0.08" so far at post time.

I found a posting of their "raw" video where the audio was left intact as they left Port St. Joe and just before the more-shown video of them bailing as the surge came in. The exchange about the "surge" starts at ~4:17 -

With the completely clear sky and winds that have died down just after 5:30 pm, the temps have started to tumble here. Currently 56 with dps in the low 40s. Only thing that might preclude complete bottoming out is the fact that the ground is still wet.

This is exactly right. I don't know if his business arrangement is now as a "salary" or is just a "commission" or what, but it seems that given their remarks, they probably would have stayed where they were or not ventured too far away from a "safe" (relatively) spot so they could get back in time... unless they had to go for some "payment for services". So they had to make a decision on the spot.

Oh I am not complaining about the decisions those guys made. They are there, they know their vehicles and what they can and can't do, they know what they have done many times before (although obviously every storm is different and every geographic area is different). I truly appreciate you guys who do it! Hell, a whole pile of folks watched Randy and Forky and other crazies chase a Lake Effect blizzard up at the Tug Hill plateau a bunch of years ago and live blog it so...

There were a whole pile of people (well a couple hundred or so, me included) watching them and listening to them and they were very much talking about their predicament. But what I didn't realize until later is that they actually "work for" someone else (now?). I always thought Brett was sortof "in charge" of the operation because he has his name/email listed for media outlets to reference. But apparently he has a "higher up" (Live Storms Media) now that has more formally monetized his activity and I suppose, handles selling the footage... And that is who they were on the phone with just before this all happened. I'll tell you that they were both whining in the car about going back... I recall him saying something like "Hey, he really wants us to do it..." or something to that effect, like it was pretty much an "order". So although they probably had a choice to put their foot down and stay where they were, they decided to try it anyway and see how far they could get.

They knew where they were because they had scouted the area before and noted in their banter that there was really no place in Mexico Beach to ride it out - no good elevation, no parking garage, etc. Which is why they went on further down 98 to Port St. Joe and had planned to hunker down in/near a hospital there. But then their "boss" (at LSM) called them (and you could hear the audio exchange in the background as it happened if you watched it live), and told them to head back to Mexico Beach (in fact insisted)... and they protested, mentioning that there was surge due to come in there... But the guy on the other end of the phone was claiming "there is no surge" or something to that effect, and like 5 minutes later, the surge started. None of that audio exchange appears on the video they eventually posted, where they only include audio when they were about to bail... and they left out the earlier part when they were leaving Port St. Joe and got back on the road headed towards Mexico Beach. But anyone who watched them live as it happened, heard the exchange. One of the reasons why I like watching Brett and his partner (Stephen?) is that their conversations are downright hilarious. They are not as show-boaty as Jeff P. but their quips and asides of other drivers out on the road or places they drive past, are a riot. I know many of the other chasers are pretty quiet or broadcast without sound at all.

The location of the house had been posted in here in an earlier post that I found and they didn't even really make it out of Port St. Joe, which was where they were before they started to head back towards Mexico Beach. I zoomed the Google Street View map out some so you can see where they bailed in relation to the water (the house with the purple roof) - https://www.google.com/maps/@29.9184855,-85.3841086,162a,35y,44.94h,45t/data=!3m1!1e3