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Everything posted by Hurricane Agnes
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Seems the NAM's "dry" forecast is standing alone. GFS & GEM are not having it (although the GEM sortof spares I95). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
That's what I'm wondering too although some cold air is supposed to sink down over the area to chill things down (with some temp undulation as the storm moves in - at least looking at the below verbatum). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
I would get the salt out... This seems almost like a weaker warmer version of the pre-VD storm (Feb. 12/13), with the snow pushed much further north. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
6z GFS has ~1.5" qpf. What that qpf will consist of is the question! I also think what is going to drive this other than the CAD is that apparently there is a lifting warm front and depending on how fast and how far it lifts, that will determine what the precipitation type will be and where. From what I recall, some models may bias on moving the warm front north too fast (and that probably depends on the time of year too). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
I don't know where Levi has the site hosted but I do know he lives in Hawai'i so he is 6 hours difference from here and if he was having maintenance done on it, it would currently be very early morning there. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Am getting this trying the site - They might be doing some maintenance, etc. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
The 6z Euro has now picked up on the NAM's earlier double low jawn. Adding the Canadian now sortof in range. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
AND the 2nd day of "the week" (obviously depending on when you consider the start of a week). Heard the math-lovers are having a field day (citing that along with that day of the week's name, this is something like a 1 in 4 million occurrence... per a report I heard on KYW). Low this morning has so far been 38 and it's currently 41 with dp 39. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
18z GFS/EC - mix to rain in southern part of CWA (although the 18z for the EC does not go out far enough to show the end of it). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
After a low of 26 this morning, made it up to 57. It's currently sunny and 56 with dp 28. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
18z NAM still showing 2 systems impacting part of the CWA where the GFS/Euro/CAN are sliding that first one to the south of here... -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
12z GFS holding as a mix/ZR to rain for the southern part of the CWA, keeping the sleet mostly north. ETA the 12z Canadian showing the same type of setup. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
It has some odd antecedent thing going before it starts to align with the other models to show the main event going into the weekend (which mostly occurs outside of the NAM's range at the moment). ETA - the 6z hires EC is actually showing that antecedent feature too but it has it further south than the NAM so it slides below the CWA (and is all rain). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
0z EC got its senses back and went with a non-phased slider for the end of month storm that it originally had (that GFS didn't). -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
6z GFS continues the 0z trends (its own & EC's) mix to rain solution for the Feb 25 storm. The 0z Canadian also has a mix to rain but mirrored the earlier icier solutions from yesterday. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
GFS 6z is still running but the 0z's change was to push most of the the ice further north and end as rain along Philly metro after an initial icing... The 0z Euro is generally mostly rain along the same southern part of the CWA through the event. It's all gonna depend on where the freezing line sets up. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Some obs for today - after a low of 18 this morning, I made it up to 37 and it's currently 30 with dp 22. -
E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
Hurricane Agnes replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region