Hurricane Agnes

12z NBM sticking with the NAM idea.

Haven't played with Bufkit in awhile but just for the heck of it (skew-t).. NAM-bufkit-skew-t-2022-02-24_9-48-43.mp4

Okay thanks! Was hoping one of you guys up there would chime in on the radar regarding whether that was just vaporware returns.

What is interesting is that they were capturing the little antecedent precip that is on the radar at the moment! Am curious if any of that is making it to the ground or is just virga.

This was the 6z (last full) HRRR -

6z EC a little drier in the east.

Latest from Mt. Holly -

6z Canadian weigh-in (more of the same).

6z NBM guidance.

6z GFS a bit drier...

0z EC and the beat goes on...

6z NAM still a slurpy.

Currently 32 with dp 20.

WWAs up around the metro area. Currently down to 32 here with dp 20.

0z GFS looks like a mix to rain for the southern tier (hope that trend holds in the future).

0z HRW FV3 (next gen GFS) icy... AND the hot off the press 0z GFS (still amped but not as excessive as previously).

I was looking out west at Pittsburgh's WFO forecast and they are talking about a heavy moisture plume there coming out of WV, and may need to have flood watches/advisories go up at some point once the storm begins. So the question will be whether that plume translates over to the east or gets shredded by the mountains, lessening the amounts. Until now, most of the models outside of the NAM, seemed to think mountains schmountains and shunts that moisture, unabated, all the way east. Meanwhile the NAM chose to assume a disrupted flow instead. However now that the 0z NAM is out, it seems to have caved to a more moisture laden set of systems and... We have seen many convective lines "dry up" and fizzle on the way east so will see if this overrunning precip idea continues or what.

I did see the Watch was extended down a row of counties. The other Watches up further north (including N. Jersey) are also being done by 2 other WFOs.

The NBM is ignoring all the firehoses and seems to be leaning towards the NAM solution.

18z RGEM all in on firehose precip.

The 18z Euro put the bulk of the icy precip out in Central PA. Of course it's the 18z... There will be many adjustments as we get closer and the short range models will be helpful.

The 68 did end up being my high for the day and it's currently 53 with dp 33. There were 3 record highs today per Mt. Holly (ILG, ACY, Atlantic City Marina).

18z 3k NAM seems realistic assuming the overruning is not a fire-hose like the other models seem to continue to show.

18z GFS keeping with the theme... I know this whole setup has a big bust potential (going either way).

Mt. Holly's last tweet from about a half hour ago.