Volcanic Winter

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

heat you can go out and experience. snow you can just look at

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the block in 09-10 was a little weaker, than NYC could have challenged 95-96.

Data for October 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
VINELAND 3.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	91.3
WRIGHTSTOWN	COOP	80.8
HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW	CoCoRaHS	79.6
FRANKLIN TWP 2.7 W	CoCoRaHS	79.0
TOMS RIVER	COOP	76.0

 

Wow, 76 on the season in Toms River? That’s very respectable.  I lived up in North Brunswick then, moved down this way early 2012.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Who wants arctic air ? I rather have it just cold enough for snow.

Enjoy Tuesday and next weekend before it gets mild for a brief time.

I do. But admittedly I’m also kind of a psycho lol. 

Another eruption near the town of Grindavik, unfortunately this fissure popped up considerably closer to the town than the previous one.

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/iceland/reykjanes-peninsula/current-activity.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3tNTObamic

Over in Milltown at the in-laws, cooling down for sure and still pretty nice wind gusts coming through. Excited for our modest arctic week considering where we’ve been for so long. 

Saying “I can’t wait for some snow this week” feels presumptive and desperate, so I’ll stop myself. But fingers crossed. 

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We've had that here..... in 2003-04 we had a snowstorm where the temps were in the single digits and the winds were blowing like 30 mph.  In January 1996 the blizzard started with temps in the single digits also.

I'm trying to remember our lowest wind chills, but the way they were calculated changed back in the 90s I think.  Before that we'd regularly get wind chills down to -60 with the old calculation method lol.  With the new method, I think -30 to -35 is the coldest wind chill we've had.

Thanks, yeah my experience could be amplified as we’re outdoors the majority of our time there. So you really feel the conditions. 

23 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada.  Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year.  Any snow we get will have some staying power.

I’d take an inch and have that stick around a bit on the grass. Call it a mental health bandaid. 

I think we see flakes Tues, it’s just between literally a couple flakes and 1-2 inches.

We’ll see what happens. @snowman19 had a nice read on things WRT where the models are at right now with the GFS folding to the Euro today. 

26 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Would like to experience that kind of cold, but just once.

Coldest temps here I’ve experienced are around zero, but the coldest I’ve ever felt was when we went to northern Iceland last winter and caught the tail end of a colder period. At night it was like 10-15 degrees but with 40 mile per hour wind. I’ve never experienced anything like that, you needed beefy insulation and a serious shell to mute that wind or you would turn into an iceblock. It’s well known how mild Iceland is for its latitude, and indeed it is relatively speaking. But the wind is the great equalizer there as it can absolutely ferocious and unrelenting. Despite, sections of the north do have a tundra climate which is quite cool to experience.

The wind makes an absolutely enormous difference with this stuff though for sure. -10F is one thing, but -10 with any real wind would be scary. Can’t imagine colder than that. 

@MJO812 Go with your SO to Iceland in Nov or Dec and get up to Akureyri. See the sights around there (carefully). You’ll be in your glory.

28 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

I’m leaving for school on Monday but it’s nice to know I was the catalyst for this snow drought 

Bruh I bought a WRX in 2019 because I spent the better part of the 2010’s risking my life in my 6 speed RWD 128i on my 60 mile commute west of NYC. Figured, I’m getting older let me finally be responsible. I used to borrow my dad’s truck or I’d probably be dead, but I didn’t always have it. Oh, and where I work would be open in the apocalypse, no such thing as a snow day, ever.

Got my WRX and a set of snow tires (comes with summers only - genius…) and I’ve needed them for precisely two months since I got all that. So it’s probably alL my fault anyway lol. 

Rediscovered one of my favorite bands from when I was growing up, one of NJ’s finest IMO (they’re from Middletown). Symphony X, some of the best prog metal out there and their guitarist is one of the best to ever do it IMO. 
 

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

A lot of folks, especially in western Canada, have moose knuckles or canada goose jackets. Though I don't know how effective they are at -50F lol. But I don't think even your parka would be enough, you'd need to wear a thick sweater underneath along with scarfs, gloves, hat, etc. 

I have a cousin living in Calgary right now, I could ask him what they're doing. But I believe they urge people to stay indoors and park your cars inside a garage or risk it not starting up. I think they might even plug their cars. This type of cold outbreak is rare, even by their standards. On average most cold outbreaks are between -25 to -35F in that area. 

Not to derail but Canada Goose is an overpriced fashion brand. They’re very warm but also obscenely expensive. Can get a better made down jacket that’s as warm or warmer from Feathered Friends for a fraction. I’d take Arcteryx over CG too, or Patagonia. Expensive still, but more technically competent than CG’s offerings. Just IMHO. We went into a CG boutique in Reykjavik this November and the price for their parkas were absolutely laughable, was like $2500 for the women’s warmer variant. 

24 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/ab-71_metric_e.html 

It's currently feeling like -72F in Edmonton. -54F tonight and -58F tomorrow night in Edmonton without windchills. This is ridiculous cold. 

 

I do winter hiking and you would legitimately need expedition down parkas to be out in that, like Everest style down suits. I have a very heavy 240g fill weight down jacket suitable for  below zero temps but even layered with that it would be too cold, and this is a substantially warmer parka than what most people have. Like you can’t even wear it around freezing you’ll sweat your ass off.  I’m sure living in Canada most are well prepared I’m just saying that is most certainly “nuts” cold. 

Of course, we’re gonna need the cutter to clear first. Was sort of asking based on current synoptics as opposed to OP snow maps which don’t tell us much yet. 

Based on current model guidance, do I have a chance for some snow down here in northern Ocean (about 8-10 miles inland)? 

I have that pang of doubt that the coast will rain but with a much further south and east mix zone / cutoff than the last storm, which of course will be good for NYC. But my anxiety is slowly ratcheting up. The theme of “the coast rains” has been strong this season, though I think NYC latitude will do better this time (which is good). Also thinking Middlesex and north should be solid. 

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

we don't want the PV sitting over our heads.  Cold and DRY.  

I just want to offer that while I agree we don’t want that for snow chances which is what the majority of us care about, just for climo purposes it’s very notable how that *hasn’t* been happening as well as what’s causing that. We should be seeing perturbations of the vortex down our ways occasionally no? Regardless of if it’s good or bad for snow chances is all I mean. 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS has always been progressive with EC coastals. like for the last 15 years

Didn’t the GFS show  1/29/22 going way OOS consistently until like 24 hours prior to the start of snowfall? I distinctly remember that for some reason and it kept people on edge. 

And I think it actually had the storm first before the Euro like ten days out, then lost it. I have saved graphics somewhere from all the steps along the way, was a very fun event to track. I remember the phase was very up in the air and inconsistent between model runs, and we were all glued to that in particular. 

I’m going to wait to get excited until after the next cutter of doom passes and the models continue to hold a decent look for this. 

Regardless, nice to see the models able to form this out of the ether once again. 

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

DC to Maine, most of CT got 6-12". Maybe you're thinking of the "jonas" blizzard in late Jan that season. 

The 2/5/16 special was a wave on a front that had this very long SW/NE movement on the radar. Models had it ticking NW every run leading up to the event, it was kind of a surprise event 24 hours in because beyond that it was mostly forecast to be a whiff. 

Wow, genuinely don’t recall that one. Beautiful precipitation band though, VA to Maine simultaneously…

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thinking we may see another jet extension late month….El Nino is still at super levels and the models are showing a big ++AAM spike going into late month and early February. The PAC jet may be raging again for awhile. Your thoughts?

Enough to cause more problematic warmth you think, or just keep things active? Hard to know at this point I’m assuming?

59 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Interesting ocean and union county.  I was born in Rahway grew up in Toms River.  Maybe we are related.  

Small world! I live at the TR / Manchester border and work up in Union Co. Grew up in Middlesex / Monmouth. 

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Now 77-78 was epic in NJ when I was a kid.  That was my baseline for winters because that’s when I first started paying attention.  

I grew up in NJ in the 2000’s and all I know is snow, it was something we saw almost every winter and never felt rare. Of course we’re talking one of the best eras ever for big snow, and my first real snow memory was 1996. Then as a young adult living in my first apartment with my then girlfriend / now wife, we had Boxing Day and got destroyed, through all the great early / mid 2010 years to 2016. Since then I’ve only seen a handful of good events, maybe a little more than some of you guys but by no means has it been good.

My perspective is very skewed by the era I grew up in, which sucks for me now. But that doesn’t change how decadal warming is going to begin eroding snow climo for the whole area, if it hasn’t to an extent already (IMHO it has). 

Good patterns and deep cold will be needed to secure results and more marginal setups will be more likely to fail, this has been the case even in coastal SNE. With that said, I do think we’ll see some big years yet when everything goes right. It didn’t just completely switch off after 2016, we just have decadal warming on top of unfavorable decadal natural variation.

Of course I want snow IMBY but I’ll be very excited if the DC metro gets crushed. I’m pulling for it, it’s needed. 

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It honestly looks like a replica of the last story, albeit with a colder air mass ahead and behind the system so more snowfall potential.

Press the cold, get more people in the game, and that’s a big win IMO. Don’t care how much or how little. Getting some flakes would be nice. 

We had that epic Dec block last year not work out for us. We can’t repeat the sins of the past this year. This one has to produce. Looking at everything, we definitely have a chance. Looks like (of course, as per usual anymore) quite a complicated setup though with many moving parts. The Euro has a phase right which is why the result looked good? 

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO the risk next week is suppressed/sheared not cut. But we’ll see, and very good support for a strong MJO wave propagation 4-7. The question then becomes do we see 8-1 come February? I think it gets mild to very mild for the CONUS after 1/20 through 1/31 then the tropical forcing questions begin….

What are your thoughts on Feb? Originally IIRC you thought Feb had a chance at being pretty decent, any other thoughts on that?

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those of us who read your work and your commentary know the time, thought and effort that goes into your forecasts. There's no question that they are original content. Ignore the noise, don't let it bother you, and keep doing what you're doing.

Agree. It’s a holistic, exhaustive way of evaluating everything into a workable forecast. Idc if @40/70 Benchmarkis “wrong” or “right” in terms of verification, he puts a ton of work into it and follows a clearly identifiable overcurrent of logic. 

Works for me, I appreciate it. If nothing else it works as an outstanding overview of the parameters leading into the winter season. 

And for someone like me who lacks the depth of meteorological knowledge that many of you have, it’s a great learning tool (which is what I’m here for…).