Volcanic Winter

27 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I think part of that is just the fact that it is the coast, and just the way it goes sometimes around here.    It also seems like this winter isn't so atrocious so far once you get away from the immediate coast.  The talk here has been so doom and gloom generally (edit: among the amateur / snow fan crowd like myself), that looking at the totals posted above, I was actually surprised to see how many within this forum's 'viewing area' are near or well over a foot.  Just asking aloud here, Is that map so far off from norms for January 21st, again, just away from the coast?  Even right at the coast, what's normal for this point in the season?  Can't be more than 6-8" at best.  

 

Fair points, but I just want to mention that averages include all seasons including La Niña “shutouts.” I guess we can debate if this Niño was too strong ultimately, but central based (the forcing has been CP, right?) Niño’s with periods of polar favorability should yield more snow than the reverse, and thus I don’t always personally agree with going by averages to contextualize a season. Some seasons are above average, or the average would be lower. And those seasons are generally favorable ENSO state with a cooperative polar domain. I say it like this because even back in the prior -PDO cycle decades ago we snowed regularly with an unfavorable Pac (-PNA), due to -AO/-NAO pulling its weight.

Just IMHO. 

And of course, it snows less at the coast than the elevated interior. But we still get snow here. We still have had outstanding seasons and outstanding single storms. But I do think WRT snow at the coast it’s more about temperature, because it needs to be cold to offset any imperfections with the synoptics of the storm or track itself. The coast is far more temperature sensitive than inland, elevated areas. We just had a BN week and the coast snowed twice. 

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NYC nearby interior suburbs. Tuesday night: small chance of icing from a bit of sleet or rain refreezing on frozen ground. Ensemble ice graphic added. Noting the EPS has the freezing rain as well. 

Sunday the 28th-Wednesday the 31st: One or possibly two hazardous wintry events of snow and/or ice. Vast uncertainty on when-what. While not favored for snow in NYC, I think there is a chance for a half inch of snow at CP as a start.  Pattern somewhat similar to that of Friday but without cold air in advance, so this will have to be with the departing mid Atlantic coastal low.  No attendant graphics at this time and no thread since I think the risk for light to moderate extensive event from BWI-ALB-BOS is inland from I95. I've seen yesterdays comments-stats on unlikely and we'll leave it at no chance snowstorm NYC but I do think a wintry event is coming, at least to our interior Sunday night or Monday. 

I add several graphics: One is the chance of ice Tuesday night. (maybe a better chance of ice pellets-snow flurries at the start in NYC than any ice?).  

And Tomer Burgs excellent graphics on the so called snow hole.  I'm on another group that discusses science. Snow holes are random.  DC-BWI-PHl are getting snow in this pattern and yet we may miss the rest of the winter but each event has its own set of difficulty.  RANDOM on the NYC snow hole-probably--just not enough stats on these snow holes. Another is apparently ongoing in MN.  

I'm pretty sure some on here were disbelieving the potential with Fifdays event and NO was right for NYC and probably again this period of 1/28-31, but I think it worth  monitoring. I'm pretty sure something wintry happens in NYC 28-31. No thread from me on this yet.  Additionally ensemble modeling continues pretty good qpf here the rest of month 1.5-2", the big 4+ flooding stuff in the Gulf Coast states. 

Just looking at snowfall to date the strip of purple to blue at the immediate coast from Boston all the way to DC is pretty crazy. I hadn’t realized the Cape & CT coast are pretty much in the same position as the immediate NYC metro. Shows how the warmth is a problem all the way to Boston along the immediate coast, though them doing a touch better is of course expected.

Really hoping something works out in Feb. 

This week has averaged 24.1 degrees for me, so a very wintry week. January MTD is 33.3, no doubt dragged down by this very cool week. 

Last January the month averaged 41.5 for me. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

You should change your name to Stormtracker Ant.

Seriously, ever since you became MJO812 we have not had MJO 8,1, OR 2 for more than a very brief period.

 

@40/70 Benchmark’s suggestion to change his name to MJO456 was legendarily funny. It still cracks me up. 

Poor guy, he needs a proper damn storm (as do we all!). 

Whatever happens from this point on, I’m grateful for the week of actual winter we had. Cool to cold, two separate mild snowfall events within a few days, and I’ve actually retained much of what fell going back to Tuesday. In a warm winter, this is pretty great. 

I agree with Justin that if you’re a turbo weenie and need more, take a trip north. My wife and I are going to Vermont or NH for my birthday in mid Feb. We’re going on a hiking / snow shoeing trip (and no matter where we go we’re definitely stopping by The Alchemist brewery, that’s been on my bucket list for ages!) and just want to get up into the mountains and into some deep snow. Really looking forward to it!

We’ve just been so damn unlucky the past two years it’s hard to be surprised by the fact that we’re staring down yet another warm and highly unfavorable period. All we can do is hope for some chances, a bit of luck, and that we’ll catch at least one more favorable period before winter’s end. 

At the very least the winter hasn’t been a complete shutout in the vein of last season. We’ll see where things go from here. 

I made it to 15. Surprisingly not my coldest season to date, which is 14. 

I hadn’t paid much attention to forecasted temps but I assumed I’d break that with the snowcover everywhere. 

Absolutely beautiful out this morning:

About 4 here. 27/25 right now. 

5 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Yet Upton lowered amounts

 

That’s in feet. 

Lightened up considerably here now, very light snow essentially a flurry. 

However I’m thrilled to see that heavier band pushing north to you guys. Get it! I can share!

Moderate snow with noticeably fatter flakes than Tuesday. Probably will end up in a great spot here for this, 30/28 currently. 

Good luck up north, I really hope this does better than it looks to be and gets you guys a couple inches+.
 

It’s coming…

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

A possible statistical 3AM reality check.  Chance of snow exceeding 1". Brown starts  80%.  I think where its brown, is also a very good chance of 2+.  The rest is yours to debate. It should snow an inch into Fairfield Litchfield counties. maybe spotty 2"?

Thank you Walt. Do you have any thoughts on where the NWS is getting their aggressive forecast from? Are they banking on high ratios or expect over performance? They must see something to issue the numbers they did. 

Just checked again and northeast NJ in the teal section of your map is still showing a forecast of 2-3 inches, as one example.

Mainly just curious if you have a read on this. Thanks for your time as always!

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You will do really well with this today. 3-4 

Thanks man! Hope so, I’m well west of the Parkway so hopefully avoiding the mix at the immediate coast. We’ll see. Was hoping all of CNJ cashes in to make up for the first N only event. 

29/23 here now. 

Good luck dude!

45 minutes ago, dseagull said:

First flakes are falling here on Barnegat Bay.   31.7

While 4-6 is being called for, I'd be surprised if we don't mix for a period of time between 11 and 2 on the water.  

Everything else looks good for our biggest snowfall in the past two years.  Very interested in watching the live breakdown of where the IVT sets up and if any actual banding sets up for a brief bit. 

I saw earlier they expected mixing east of the parkway up to approximately Monmouth / Ocean line. Not sure if that’s still the case as things have shifted around prior to Go time, but I do think you’ll definitely see decent accumulation. Good luck!

No flakes here yet to your north, about ten miles inland on the TR / Manchester border. 

2 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

No matter what we get, this week was AWESOME. Cold and snowy. 

Who cares how much we get...enjoy it 

Yep, I loved this week. I enjoy the cold and need more than just snow followed by immediate warmth. So regardless of relatively tame snow totals, this was such a refreshing week of actual winter for me and it’ll get me through if the remaining season is terrible and warm. 

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Where are they getting these forecasts from. Models don't show more than 3" across the entire area. 

I would go with 1-3" area wide with local spots further south at 2-4"

Yeah that’s had me scratching my head. 4-6 inch WSW for me, but nothing is showing that. Must be betting on high ratio snowfall? Idk. 

Definite snow-sky vibe. Enjoy guys

Home sick with a touch of a stomach bug, so I don’t have anything to do but enjoy the snow tomorrow .

26 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I don't want to sound dismissive of tropical forcing, it's got a role to play and a crucial piece of forecasting in the extended range.  But the correlations are often overvalued by forecasts at the mid and high lats, especially in recent times.

 

In my opinion the guys who use it as the foundational/principal basis for the majority of their forecasts tend to overvalue it's usefulness.  More pieces to the puzzle.  It's not the answer to all weather and it gets that reputation sometimes.

This isn’t to challenge you in any way, I’m just very curious and trying to learn.

If it’s not just in MJO activity, what caused / contributed to all the record warmth and consistent back to back warm winters since 2016? What do you think is driving that outside the obvious?

Anomalous MJO activity at least sort of gives a partial explanation, you know? But I’m curious if you have any other thoughts. 

I have snowpack and will be getting more snow, huge win. IDGAF how much. 

Good luck guys, this sure beats omega level cutters with 4 QPF rain to Montreal. 

I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. 

Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 

3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. 

Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold…

My surviving “snowpack”, which I’ll take mind you:

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

14 chilly start to the day 

Feels so refreshing! Nothing wakes you up better than a cool winter morning, I live for it. 

Meanwhile on humid summer mornings I want to promptly about face and divebomb into my ice tray…

15.3 and still dropping, dew below 10 now. 

Whipped out my heavy down parka for the first time since last Xmas. 

The beast:

Down to 16, prior season low was 17. Be curious to see if I go any lower before sunrise. 

Temp plot looks to still be slowly dropping. The snow remaining on my grass has a beautiful crystalline sheen from the cold temps, I love it. 

I managed to scrape by the protracted rain fest after my three inches fell with at least one remaining inch on the grass. I’ll take it.