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0z HRRR is SE... 

So while we are eagerly awaiting the 00z model runs, which site(s) do you all use for your model data? Didn't know what the pros/cons are.

The bad at math part was why I didn't follow through either... haha...

SGF has added a northern tier of counties to Winter Storm Watch. 

This caught my attention as well...

NAM initialized 2-3 degrees too warm... that seems to be a trend here. Not sure what long-term effects this has. 

EURO initialized about 2 degrees too warm FWIW.

Joplin airport ob says 33 and snow. JoMo... you seeing snow?

Just now, Solution Man said:

Good sign...more snow less ice.

Did you get much ice yesterday? I have friends up near Osborne who lost vehicle windshields due to falling limbs. They were out of power for a while. 

16 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Going to have to correct myself. It’s been snowing heavy now and stuff is starting to turn white.

Enjoy! What's your temp?

We are down to 35 here in Monett on my backyard thermometer. This is a bit earlier than the models advertised I believe. May not make a huge difference in the scheme of things, but there you have it. Looks like the theme of this winter may be near misses. 

Just now, rockchalk83 said:

12z RDPS continues the theme of an ice storm from central OK through Missouri. Quarter to two-thirds of an inch of ice possible if that run verifies. 

Surface temps are so key in a situation like an ice storm. 31 or 32 really won't get you the build up the models advertise. It has to be 30 or so... although 20s are more efficient. I don't want 33 and rain, but I definitely don't want an ice storm. Models seem to be trending west with the low. If it's going to be ice, I am fine with that. 

Hope everyone had a great Christmas. Hoping we get some good snow in the new year.

Need to take into account warm ground temps. Snow depth map is helpful.

Local tv met this morning claiming that we will be getting rain this weekend with a few flakes of snow mixed in, especially in NW AR. It's not the storm of the century, but come on. Maybe not much accumulation here but looks like there will be plenty of flakes flying unless I am missing something.

1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Got any estimates on the Euro for NW AR?

EURO lays down 2-4" looks like. 

I am curious how the storms this morning affect the evolution of the afternoon/evening event. Will be interesting to watch. May 4th is a dirty word around here when you couple it with severe weather. 

Someone tell me why the NAM is trying to get my hopes up again late Tuesday/early Wednesday? Only model I think that is showing this... or was as of this morning.

Rain for all midweek unless you're up by KC. They have had a bunch of snow this winter. Good for them, bad for us.

Curious to see what this next little band working through does now that temps are down to 30 here and we are losing solar radiation. I am trying to make something out of nothing probably. 

I take full responsibility. 

I am sorry I jinxed us. Eeek. 

I hope I am not jinxing things here because I said I wouldn't believe it until I saw it on radar... this looks like it is going to be a widespread significant event for the region. Good luck to all today as the storm moves through. 

I will admit it has been so long before an actual event to pay attention to HRRR, does it usually overjuice like the NAM sometimes does? The 00z run is fascinating. 

AFD says SGF is going with Winter Storm Warning.

2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Last 3-4 runs of the HRRR are subsequently a bit colder.  18z about to run shortly and it will go out 36 hrs versus the others that only go 18. 
I like the trends today overall.  Some of us need to thread the needle (ala Patrick Mahomes) but I think we’ll all take our chances with that. 

I just hope it's 6" of snow and not .3" of ice.