Wx 24/7

EURO and GFS both give us several opportunities over the next 7-10 days for some wintry weather. 

So who wants to talk about next weekend's storm? Anyone? *Crickets* 

So for some of our Missouri and Kansas friends... this is an amazing storm. Highest total I have seen officially I believe is 14.5" in Columbia. They should get another 3-6" more before the system wraps up (maybe a bit more). Over 20"! WOW. 

Snow snow all around... but this donut hole is frustrating. Need to watch surface temps closely but looks like I am out of this one, too. Folks to the NE of us... enjoy!

I won't get excited about the weekend system. I won't get excited about the weekend system. I know the models are pulling a trick. I won't get excited. I won't. 

This better not be a slopfest with nothing to show at the end of the event. Boo if so. 

TSA more aggressive but still being cautious this far out (as advised). 

Forecast still remains challenging for mid week as strong upper trough
moves out of the desert southwest and begins to impact the area.
GFS remains the most progressive with system although has trended
a little slower/further north, more towards the ECMWF which still
develops closed low that tracks directly over area. Initially
expect the potential for light freezing rain across southeast
Oklahoma Wednesday morning ahead of main system. Generally stayed
with a blend of the two solutions but with precipitation transitioning
to snow Wednesday night as cold core low moves over the region.
Given the uncertainty with exact track/evolution of upper low and
subsequent thermal profiles, stayed with relatively low snow
accumulations for now. Again, this will depend of track which
remains uncertain at this point. Any winter weather threat should
end during the day Thursday as upper system shift east.

I'll take the 0z EURO for $2000 please Alex!

Wishing everyone on here a Merry Christmas. Models consistently signaling for our next system of interest to be around the new year. 

This won't be the warmest Christmas (by far) but won't be the coldiest or snowiest either. Enjoy the weather, no matter the weather!

Actually 12z GFS gives us a nice snow in SW MO on Thursday night into Friday morning. I am not biting yet. But... 

I think many of us now know how Charlie Brown felt when Lucy moved the football out of the way. Hoping we get a surprise bump up at the last minute... but not holding my breath.

I am going to curl up on the couch this weekend and watch YouTube videos of places where it snows and pretend I am looking outside. 

Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Let’s be clear this wasn’t just the NAM busting. Up until 00z last night the Euro also had a significant winter storm. As much as everyone hypes up the Euro as being the best model it’s not invincible and is just as capable as he other models as flopping hard.

Do you anticipate any real adjustments with the 00z or 12z models? Or is it sampled well enough now. 

No more looking at a potential storm until 24 hours out. 

4 minutes ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Hmmm not sure what to think of this one now based on everything I read here, and from writeups from NWS offices. Sounds like temps are so borderline or its going to be a sleet slop fest blah. Guess the models need time(if possible lol) to sample this thing properly. Tulsa has a watch for here now but its mostly a rain and sleet writeup with maybe a smidge of snow very very late saturday into midnight sat. , The watch should have been waited on I feel idk.

A watch is just that -- a watch. Just like a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch does not necessarily mean you will see a storm or a tornado, the possibility of severe winter weather is there given the model data spread and uncertainties still. I think this system still requires a blending of the model details at this point. We haven't even fully sampled this thing yet. All hope is not lost in my opinion... but the trend is definitely not good. That being said... I don't think the watch was wrong.  Current official snowfall forecasts for Fayetteville have you with 3-4" and with between .1-.25" of ice. That's a decent storm. 

Well, I have grown less confident in snow here in SW MO overnight. EURO doesn't even bring much of anything over the border. Worries me. 

Quick question with those more knowledgeable... SGF mentioned they didn't see any CWIPS analogs that really matched this event. What is the likelihood a system moves out that has no real analogs? I know each storm is different, but are they really that different? Is this a feature of the models not really sampling the low yet?

1 minute ago, OUGrad05 said:

I expected NWS to have a winter storm watch up in Tulsa but they don't yet.  Must be hanging on for the 00Z data.

Especially since your threshold for a watch is 4". 

There is more than enough in that graphic to prompt TSA to issue a Winter Storm Watch. Wonder if they are waiting to analyze the 00z data first?

Trend still looks good. Sure would like a slight northern shift to include S KS and S MO in more certain action. Model runs at 12z (and especially at 0z) will help tell the story as the system will be more fully sampled. Personally found it interesting that OUN hoisted the watch while TSA didn't. 

It has been so long I have forgotten the time frame in which we can expect to see Winter Storm Watches hoisted if they wind up being necessary. Are we looking 36 hours in advance or so?

Hey everyone and welcome to winter.

I think the main thing we can sort of agree on at this point is that we are really in a good position across much of N OK, S MO, and N AR to see a nice snow. Fine details need to be worked out... and that includes whether or not we get a warm nose aloft that turns snow to sleet city or freezing rain. I think we are sitting better than normal at this range. Once we get this system better sampled I hope the models start to converge on a solution that is more consistent. 

Was in Joplin yesterday afternoon and I am overwhelmed by how quickly things are back up and going. Being there and helping out in the days after the tornado it is so unreal to watch the community bounce back as quickly as it has. It seems like everytime we go there something new is back. This is the first time I have noticed significant housing work... which is a great sign. Sure, you need the businesses, but the homes and the people inside them are what sustain the community. While the scars and emotional wounds will still be there for quite some time, it is great to see the power of the human resolve at work in SW Missouri.

Thanks JoMo for keeping this thread updated with all of the latest.