Wx 24/7

Extension of the winter storm/ice storm warning will be
considered with the afternoon update. <--- Important info from Tulsa AFD. 

I am not going to jinx it yet. Really do like that all models are basically on board though. 

1 hour ago, lokee said:

All three models show light snow amounts on the 5th from Texas on up into parts of Sw Mo. 

Not getting my hopes up until I see it on radar. Even then it might be virga. 

Who is ready for our next near miss next Wednesday?

57 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Significant temp difference between the GFS and NAM (no surprise there). 
 

The NWS discussions are considerably different as well.   Tulsa way more bullish then OKC, Springfield, and Little Rock.  

Have noticed Cramer (SGF) has way underplayed all winter events recently. Don't know if he does that consistently or just hasn't liked the looks of these systems. I know there are some SPC and NHC forecasters who tend to be more conservative than others. He may be one of those in the local SGF office. I really haven't paid that close of attention to know for sure. 

3 hours ago, JoMo said:

So, marginal snow event coming up in a few days? 12z Euro somewhat impressive. 

All the models seem to be on board. I am hesitant for now. We shall see. Timing is right for accumulation though. 

Interesting that it has been 5 years since Springfield, MO has seen a 3" snow from a single event. Pathetic... even for around here.

All the models give SW MO at least a dusting (some much more)... I am not even falling for that trick. 

On 1/13/2020 at 4:02 PM, MUWX said:

 

I am not falling for your tricks NAM, EURO, and Canadian. I will not do it. 

3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Can't wait for another near miss!

"This time it will be different... I promise." -- I have heard that song and dance before. 

Wow, I sound bitter. 

Once again, it was Charlie Brown weather forecast here in SW MO. Lucy (the models) put the football out in front of us and then removed it at the last second. Surface temps never cooled quite enough for most of us. Some minor icing in spots, but not like the models projected. Back to a cold rain later this morning and then on to the next disappointment. Ha! Ha!

Some areas did/are getting hammered with ice. I don't envy them. Keep the ice away. 

3 hours ago, MUWX said:

Noticed that. I am down in OKC this week on a business trip, headed back home on Friday, so this I have a feeling we will get hammered just to make my life miserable!

Likewise, I have to be in KC this weekend so I will likely get ice stormageddon... because I don't want it to. 

NAM is definitely not nearly as warm as it had been in the last couple of runs. The 60s of midweek are definitely gone. EURO looks dry after this weekend's wet storm. GFS is stormy though. Hope you enjoyed this system. 

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Snowing golf balls in republic. Some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. 

Enjoy! Had a few quarter sized flakes here as it wrapped up. Still flurries and sleet pellets here... very little left.

Just now, JoMo said:

I don't really see a reason to get your hopes up for next weekend though. Maybe a little sleet to start but then probably warming up to rain?

True. Just been grasping at straws this winter. I think part of my issue this season is because of the hype at the beginning of the winter. Just goes to show how long range forecasting still isn't very accurate at all. 

Getting ready to enjoy a few hours of wintry weather here and then start focusing on next weekend... which will likely get my hopes up only to see them crushed again. Tis a pleasure to live in the 4 states. 

Models come back to reality as we move closer toward the event. We will see some snow, but amounts across the board for most of us not real impressive unless something changes over the next run or two. 

24 minutes ago, Doramo said:

I'm expecting to get lots of rain and maybe a flake or two of snow on the exit .  

Me too. Normally I am rooting for the NAM and it usually caves to the EURO and/or GFS. This time I am rooting for the EURO/GFS and they will probably cave to the NAM. 

At this rate Vegas will have had more snow than many of us in the thread. Let that sink in.

Keep an eye on temps today. That is the key. Will be some impressive snowfall rates in areas that are cold enough for it. Borderline call either way with huge bust potential.

Have had a total of 1.7" for the winter (1.5 in November and .2" on Friday). Worst winter snow season in years. 

Interesting that Met. Joe Lauria (FOX 4 KC) was mentioning the fact that models tend to perform worse when there is a lot of "noise" going on. Taking a look in the Pacific, the parade of storms and energy is very chaotic. I think this is what he is alluding to. Trend has been moving more in line with less deep arctic air but increasingly likely that many of us see some snow. Don't see this being "just a cold rain" for any north of US 412 from Tulsa eastward to NE AR. At least that is what I am thinking at this time.  

Definitely need to watch trends. Remember last week's system was trending in a specific direction as the models converged on a specific solution. The same will likely happen with this system as well. Won't be fully sampled until tomorrow I believe, too. 

39 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I just have a feeling southern mo is going to get slammed with cold rain again, because that's what we do. 

Not this time my friend. We may not get much snow... but cold rain won't be the show in town this time. 

Someone is going to get slammed with the weekend storm. Chiefs fans... it may be harder to sit through the game this weekend at Arrowhead... with snow and temps in the single digits and below zero wind chills. Yikes.