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I finally went out and measured about 10:30. We have 6.5" in Monett and we are still getting some good snow. 

Think the evening and overnight event may surprise some. I think 1-3" is definitely not out of the equation for a lot of us. 

I have no way of knowing how much snow we have. The drifting has happened in areas that it doesn't normally drift in. Our south facing front door had an inch or two drifted in front of it when I opened it this morning. Will wait until it is all said and done before I measure for a final total.  

13 minutes ago, westhope84 said:

NWS Tulsa upping totals. I will be beyond thrilled if we pick up 8+ in Tulsa. 

Yes. TSA also mentioned "near blizzard conditions" in their AFD. This is going to be quite the next 18 hours. 

Things look to be progressing pretty much as expected. Probably lots of people who will wake up this morning and say "BUST!" but don't realize the main wave comes through beginning this afternoon. Looks like some potentially very heavy snow for a lot of us on here this evening into the overnight. 

Just leaving this here...

1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.


2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-44 corridor.


3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the I-44 corridor actually means.


4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.


5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years.


6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.


7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.


8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)


9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.


10. System hits Texas and Oklahoma. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)


11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all.


12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. (Does any of the other old timers miss the pictures of Rosie's feet??)


13. System moves to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted......

-- This is from FOX 2's Chris Higgins out of STL... thought it was great stuff. I edited it just a bit to make a bit more applicable to our region.



14. New system shows up - See #1.

Once this snow and ice is laid down, GFS tonight doesn't warm parts of SW MO above 32º until Monday afternoon. 

The trends on the 06z NAM are definitely concerning. 

06z EURO also ramps up the ice, but keeps the heavy snow, too. I don't want the freezing rain. Ugh. 

The GFS continues to hold serve. I hope that it is right, but that warm nose is way too pesky for my liking. I am glad I cut some limbs and stocked up on supplies yesterday. 

31 minutes ago, JoMo said:

If it keeps warming, it might be freezing rain. 

It can stop warming any time.

4 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z NAM continues the trend of pushing the 850 MB front farther NW. 

Yep... continues to look icier and dicier. Hate to waste this moisture on sleet, but that is a much better outcome than freezing rain. 

Anyone else still wondering what happens to totally mess this up?

Canadian traditionally has a cold bias if I am not mistaken. 

Normally I make fun of the people who rush out and buy ingredients for french toast (milk, eggs, and bread), but I am going to be getting my preparations done this weekend. If at worst, I have extra batteries, gasoline, and wood for my heat... that is better than the opposing possibilities. Lack of supply in a variety of different areas exacerbates this problem. I continue to worry about that pesky warm nose and the ice potential. 

26 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I don't believe there is one. You have to look at the soundings to extrapolate the precip type from there.

That's what I thought. Just wanted to double check. Thanks!

10 hours ago, JoMo said:

The long range still looks to feature a -EPO through mid-Feb so the cold air feed should be good to go. Time for the 00z models. 

00z ICON has a massive ice storm followed by a massive snowstorm for my neck of the woods. 

Is there is a site that you are using showing these ice outputs or are you just extrapolating? Weatherbell only shows me snow. Didn't know if another site showed ice. 

This overall setup screams a major ice storm for someone to me. Too soon to know just where that will be. The only hope would be that it would wind up being just cool enough a bit closer so it could be more sleet. 

1 hour ago, MUWX said:

I think pretty much everyone here would be ok with the 12z Canadian. 

I am not happy with my 14.9" of snow forecast. Mainly because it is the Canadian.

Looks like something to watch late in the work week. Not a huge system, but maybe a few inches if it all works out. Probably will just disappoint again, but it is something to track at least. 

22 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

Agreed!  Benton County, AR gets hit solid.  MoWeatherGuy and I will take it!!!

Someone forgot to lock it in. 

These wind chills the next few nights are going to be brutal.

Lock in the NAM please. Thanks. 

NAM and RGEM are a little further north and west with some snow late Wednesday, along with some freezing rain and sleet. Amounts are light... but something to track. The GFS and EURO don't develop this until further SE. 

Wound up with just under 4" here in Monett... temps never did get above freezing, but did get to 31. Models were just off enough to keep us under that magic number. 

Looks like the pattern flips cold again -- hope we get a few more clippers that sneak up on us in the next couple of weeks. There seem to be some signals for that. 

10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I'm wondering now looking at short term models if we even get much of the afternoon round.   This may be it for us. 

Models I am looking at show around another 2" or so for you. ???

Additionally, watch the larger radar and pivot. More snow will work back in. 

Just now, The Waterboy said:

Looks like a lot of us may get dry slotted quite a bit for a while.  

NWS Tulsa reporting freezing drizzle developing in the dry slot. 

I have 2 3/4" here in Monett as of 7:45 AM. It is 24 degrees, which is colder than model forecasts. If it warms to the expected 34 today, I would be shocked. Roads are covered. 

May not matter in the long run, but the HRRR is a bit off with the timing of the colder air... it is actually too slow. Temps are falling faster by a couple of degrees out across E KS than modeled. This could have big implications "IF" this trend continues.