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Just now, MoWeatherguy said:

One of the encouraging things on the 3k is the snow depth map,  which takes away the snow that allegedly doesn't stick.  Even it now has totals around 4-6 inches.

 

Yes, this is the most impressive part! I may have to sign up for the part of Charlie Brown here soon! Keep an eye on those temps the next few hours across Kansas and Oklahoma. Let's see how they surge!

Buckle up folks... going to be an interesting (and likely disappointing) next 24-36 hours. 

5 minutes ago, JoMo said:

lol at that 37 degrees and rain right over 3-4 counties in SW MO on the 18z HRRR. That little bubble of surface warm air sucks.

Did I mention I am switching back to the 18z RAP for this model run? LOL... 

Seriously though, the line between cashing in and cashing out is going to be so thin. The ones right on the cusp will really pick up some decent snow.

16 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

03, 09, 15, 21z all run out to 51 hours.  All other hours only to 21. 

Thanks to you both! I am sticking with the HRRR. It looks better for us over here. 

1 hour ago, The Waterboy said:

15z RAP was ugly for SW MO and NW AR.  Never gets below freezing during precip.  Tulsa scores big.  
This could be the warm nose that Tulsa mentioned.  

Where do you all see the RAP beyond hour 21? It is only out through 7 a.m. tomorrow on the sites I use. 

9 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Tulsa’s write-up overnight seems to favor the RAP which looks pretty good for most of us.  09z was a good run but surface temps still going to be iffy.  
They also mention the two things we hate to hear: warm nose and dry slot.  

It's this dumb inverted trough causing us problems this time around. There's always something, isn't there? 

If temps are 34 or 35, if the snow is heavy enough it will cool temps and allow the snow to accumulate. Whoever gets under these heavy bands is going to cash in on the jackpot with this storm. The question is... who is that? 

7 hours ago, JoMo said:

Are Monett schools still in session? They closed a bunch around here today and tomorrow. 

Monett schools are still in session, although I no longer work there. I am with Crowder College now.

Will be interested to see what SGF does in the overnight package. 

Also wondering why St Louis was doing their afternoon updates. Wondering if COVID has hit the office.

21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

For what it’s worth the 18z HRRR looks pretty good for SW MO, and NW AR.  Not so good further west.  

If only temps were about 2-4 degrees colder.

7 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Nice 12Z NAM run, puts Tulsa back in the mix and drops half a foot in NW AR.

 

3km NAM is much more reasonable IMHO than the 12km. It just doesn't quite go out that far. Surface temps are going to be so tricky during this storm. 

For the most part, all overnight runs improved things for the region. I think the key is surface temps and how long the snow can stick around. The more that is flying after 3 p.m. on Saturday, the better the accumulation efficiency will be. 

I wasn't Charlie Brown this time... but Lucy sure did show up and move the football.

18z EURO looks pretty similar to the 12z run, although it is a bit lighter overall in amounts. 

19 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Southern Missouri just getting hammered this 18z NAM run. 

Has an icier look at the start as well. 

Lucy tee up the football...

3 hours ago, JoMo said:

So the 06z GFS happened, wow. Probably not going to happen, but wow. 

Temps seem too marginal for much in my view. Hopefully those trend down as well. 

12 hours ago, JoMo said:

Individual storm threats are unknown at this time, but pretty much all the ensembles have a strong -EPO signal, which usually signals cold air dumping into the Plains/Eastern US.

 

Always more than 200 hours away. Wake me up when it is within range. I am thankful for a couple of baby snows last week. Otherwise I would be super angry at this winter. 

Early 00z model runs look a bit more juiced than previous ones. Hopefully the GFS and EURO jump on board. 

EURO has cut its totals back with the 12z run, but something to follow still. These kinds of snows look like the only game in town for now. 

Definitely had some lake effect enhancement in local areas. Probably a combination of the drastic drop in temps plus the wind. 

I think freezing drizzle is probably a big threat, especially later Saturday. That seems to be a signal on the model... even if it isn't really picking up on it with the QPF. NAM trended north. I am waiting before I get too excited. KC calling for 3-6" may be a big bust-a-rama depending on depth of cold air, too. 

Looks like this weekend is shaping up to be a decent winter system from Central KS across the KC metro toward Kirksville and Hannibal, MO.  

I am just thankful at this point that there is something to track. Looks like some snow and ice are finally going to fall somewhere fairly close. That's more than we have had thus far. 

I don't like cold unless it is going to snow, so... it can go ahead and warm up for a bit.  

Happy Thanksgiving. Looks cold in the weeks ahead, but nothing consistent storm wise.