Wx 24/7

Does no one post here much anymore? It is dead for such a big severe potential in this forum. 

I'll be here to follow along again. :) 

Crazy that we have seen more snow than in portions of the Dakotas! 

Wondering what the next few months hold. I have heard it could be an active severe weather season.

3" of new snow this morning! Brings the two storm total to 8" here in Monett. 

I'm impressed by this lead band coming out of Oklahoma and far NW Arkansas.

I have cleaned off my snowboard, shoveled my driveway, and am waiting for round 2.   Hit -17º here this morning. 

EURO has us in the 60s and 70s next week. Wow. Weather is never boring. Sometimes it is disappointing because we miss out on the big snows but it is such a fascinating thing.

Here are Springfield's thoughts.

Kuchera overdid it. I would look at QPF outputs and do a small multiplier. Seems like most snow ratios weren't off the charts like we thought they might be. Even then the next system looks significant.

4.25" of snow in Monett as of my 6 a.m. measurement and it has been really snowing since 6:30 again. It is -4. Yeesh. That measurement is a best guess because of drifting.

Need to check the models and see what they are saying about the next system, too. This has been a couple of weeks to remember for sure. 

2.75" of snow here in Monett as of 7:00 p.m.

It’s like a Monett reunion. And now Sw MO join the winter storm warning party. 

Up to 1.25” in Monett on my snowboard. That was as of 11:30. 

6 minutes ago, JoMo said:

That's with the 2nd system added in I believe. 

That may be true. Wichita calling for 5-8” so I thought SGF might be pulling in line. Either way this is a nice snow. 

SC and SE KS counties along OK border in ICT CWA now under Winter Storm Warning.

I’ve seen reports on Twitter that there is some sleet down in SE OK and western AR at times. 

3.3" in Winfield, KS and 1" in Pittsburg, KS are the first official snow totals I have seen. Hope we all cash in today/tonight/tomorrow!

The 00z model runs look like they are trending heavier... especially across the I-44 corridors. Personally I feel like SGF might need to pull the trigger on a WSWarning for some of their counties.

Is snow already breaking out SE of Elk City or are those false returns?

Here you go...

Our Tulsa area friends should love the 12z HRRR...

I think NAM may actually be Lucy...

Stolen from Chris Higgins at Fox 2 in St. Louis. Bolded words are changes made for us.

Quote

 

1. Someone notices the possibility of a potent storm moving thru the area in 7-10 days.

2. 3-4 days are spent pointing out that off-hour runs are stupid and useless and throwing out any model that doesn't appear to confirm accumulating snow along the I-35, 1-40, and I-44 corridors.

3. 2-3 days are spent trying to determine what the heck the term "interstate corridor" actually means.

4. During the same period, every registered user askes the handful of posters who actually understand the models how much snow will fall at their nearest cross-street - and they ask 6-10 times after each model run.

5. System will be compared to every big snow event in the last 28 years.

6. As the system approaches, people who may (or may not) know what they are talking about post accumulation maps.

7. Each registered user bemoans the fact that the system is missing them by 50 miles.

8. System actually comes on shore, completely throwing all models into chaos. (This is also when terms like "nowcasting" begin to be used and "discos" from other NWS offices begin to show up regularly.)
 

9. Users again frantically try to determine how much will fall at their cross street.

10. System goes north or south. Every user gives up hope of seeing any snow at all (24 hours earlier, the models indicated 6-8 inches at their cross-street.)

11. Users try not to use off-color language to indicate their frustration with not getting any snow at all or at least far less than the models originally indicated.

12. 95% of users watch in horror as 5% of users begin to post photos of snow actually falling on one of the requested cross-streets. 

13. System pjazzes to the North/South/East/West and bombs out on someone else. Postings cease. Newbies are addicted......

14. New system shows up - See #1.

 

1 minute ago, JoMo said:

QPF continues trending down. Still a good snowfall for most people though, just lower expectations.

Do you buy the 14:1 or 16:1 ratios SGF mentions? Seems like it should be higher???