Wx 24/7

Here comes Lucy... should we laugh, cry, or kick things if Shreveport, Pine Bluff, and NW Mississippi get more snow than most of us??

SGF says only 3-6" of snow with max snow ratios of 16:1 as the event ends. No Winter Storm Watch. Interesting...

18 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger.

Hopefully their AFD has more detail into their thoughts than this morning's. 

14 minutes ago, Weatherdemon said:

Tulsa NWS still pulling back on amounts.

 

I don't think this is the 7 day graphic. For one the dates don't go out beyond Monday. Secondly the daily amounts don't match up.

2 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I am concerned by the fact that Tulsa went warning for everyone except NWA, and the fact that SGF isn't forecasting enough snow to meet the threshold for a watch/warning. I suppose SGF could issue one for below the threshold with other factors (cold, and blowing snow) but the fact that their is a warning to the west, and a watch to the east, doesnt give me a ton of hope that SGF is going to pull the trigger.

TSA is holding off on warning for NW AR because of timing only.

5 hours ago, JoMo said:

Except there really isn't a second storm on the Euro tonight for this area. Hmm.

EURO has been exceptionally inconsistent in this pattern. I really lean on it a lot most of the time, but it hasn't handled the arctic air well or the progression of any of the recent previous systems. Something to keep an eye on though. 

Has Lucy arrived or is the NAM just toying with our emotions??

6 minutes ago, lokee said:

If you guys get a chance go look up the video of the 100 car pile up from this morning in DFW. Sends chills seeing how helpless you are on ice. 

Unbelievable footage. Those poor people.

A good rule of thumb for public forecasting is to find a reasonable (albeit usually somewhat conservative) point and then massage numbers either up or down as needed closer to the event. TSA keeps slowing inching up. I, too, feel like I am waiting for Lucy to pull the football away at the last minute...

5 minutes ago, JoMo said:

About 4 runs until it loses the storm completely for 2 runs, inducing mass panic. 

I am making a grocery run tomorrow afternoon. That should time up quite nicely!

Side note: cooling off here more than forecast. I am down to 14 already. We were supposed to bottom out at 16. Maybe it will steady out. 

31 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Personally, I’m a big fan of the guy in the comment section asking if the output shown is in feet or inches lol 

The way some people have been posting on social media it is almost a legitimate concern.

I do think if you are setting your sights on a 13" snow you are setting yourself up for disappointment. That's why I hate when people see a forecast range of snow... say 3-6"... and then they think they will get 6". 

If you are looking for a decent accumulating snowfall then I think you should be feeling pretty good right about now. I haven't glanced at the ensembles today.... do any of them show a complete miss? 

I think the difference is the temps and snow ratios... if the temps were borderline you would need just the perfect setup in order to get a "big" snow. That is 99% of the time around these parts. You don't need to worry about temps this go round. This type of cold air cranks out any and all moisture in the atmosphere. I have bought in. 

As cold as it is... not moisture creates a nightmare of issues. If this next 10 days or so pans out like it is modeled, it will be one of the best consecutive winter stretches in a long time.  

All I am saying is that if I have to deal with this much cold, there better be some snow with it.  Models continue to be all over the place with disturbances and precip. I haven't seen any consistency from run to run even really. The only consistency seems to be inconsistency. 

47 minutes ago, MUWX said:

10 years ago today many of us were under a blizzard warning. Seems longer ago than that. How many years until it happens again? 

1 week!  

Hi-res models typically do tend to handle surface temps better. Hope so for KC's sake.

An inch of snow with 40 mph winds have many potential impacts... should be an interesting day for those of us in SW MO. 

So far I am not excited at the pattern over the next 7-10 days. Seems that we are in a bit of a lull. This is the time of the winter when we get our coldest air and have our coldest average highs. We need to be taking advantage of that. 

Models are pretty consistent tonight in bringing some snow to SW MO and especially NW/NC AR. Coming at night definitely helps this system. WWA out for parts of SW MO and adjacent sections of NW AR. Higher terrain of NW/NC AR under Winter Storm Warning!

I feel like model uncertainty has been the name of the game for the last few systems. I know there is always some uncertainty, but this seems to have been a bit more diverse than normal. Part of what makes this hobby fascinating, fun, and also frustrating. 

The problem with these nice little storms is that it leaves you wanting more.

5 minutes ago, OKTWISTER said:

NWS Tulsa holding strong on little freezing precipitation in the Tulsa Metro proper. However the Winter Storm Warning was moved east and Osage and Pawnee counties added and Washington, Nowata and Craig counties added for Winter Weather Advisory. 

 

 

One thing graphics like this reassure me is the need for polygon based winter products like we do with severe weather. Places like Sand Springs aren't in the advisory despite being further west than others in the advisory. 

Of course many of us lived in the dashed areas in SW MO... because... why would anything ever be set in stone. I don't like the ICE outputs for those of you along and just north of I-44. 

This is my current forecast. One or two degrees is very important. No model is getting this right at the present time. I am not sure how temps warm overnight with ENE or NE surface winds.