TheClimateChanger

We did it! BTV reached at least 86F, setting a new October monthly record. 5 of 12 monthly record high values have now occurred since 2015, with records in the threaded history dating continuously to 1884. Mount Washington, NH reached at least 61F. I believe the low was 53F. Both of which would be the second highest observed in the month of October. If it doesn't tick up to 62F today, there is one last chance tomorrow.

Not sure if either of these are verified, but it was allegedly as high as 94F in parts of the Upper Peninsula yesterday. I did some research and I believe 94F would tie the Michigan statewide record for the month of October. A high of 94F was observed on October 1, 1897, at Mottville; at St. Joseph on October 4 & 5, 1922; at Canton on October 7, 2007; and at Algonac WWTP on October 8, 2007.

Not quite. Today's high of 89F was actually one shy of the daily record. It has reached 90F or better six times on record in the month of October, most recently on October 1, 2019. 90+ readings in October in Toledo's threaded climate record: (1) 90, on October 1, 1897 (2) 92 on October 8, 1939 (3) 92 on October 4, 1951 (4) 90, on October 3, 1953 (5) 91, on October 7, 1963 (6) 91, on October 1, 2019

Lake Superior looks primed to deliver. It's like the Little Engine That Could, straying not far from average for much of the summer, but a late surge has brought it to the highest in the GLSEA era for the date.

New monthly maximum water temperature observed at the Buffalo water intake crib on Lake Erie. The water temperature reached 70F, both yesterday and today. This is the first time a water temperature of 70F has been observed in the month of October. Records date to 1927. Prior to the recent record, the highest daily readings are: 69F: October 1, 2023; October 1-2, 2016 68F: October 1-2, 2019; October 1, 2017; October 3-6, 2016; October 9-11, 2007; October 1, 1933; and October 1-5, 1931 Source: Lake Erie October Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov)

Good news for those interested in taking a late season dip in the Great Lakes, or for those desiring warmer waters to accommodate lake effect snows. I know Buffalo did quite well last year, in that department. The temperature of Lake Erie, at the Buffalo water intake crib, yesterday and today reached 70F: Lake Erie October Temperatures Buffalo (weather.gov) This is the first time in recorded history (back to 1927), that a water temperature of 70F or better has been observed at the Buffalo crib during the month of October. The prior monthly record of 69F, was set on October 1 & 2, 2016, and on October 1, 2023. There have also been 16 days on which a water temperature of 68F was observed: October 1-5, 1931; October 1, 1933; October 9-11, 2007; October 3-6, 2016; October 1, 2017; and October 1-2, 2019.

Just an incredible stretch for early autumn. Sault Ste. Marie, with records dating to 1888, set its monthly record of 83F yesterday, and is poised to match or exceed that again today. The prior monthly record was 82F, set on October 4, 1922. Back-to-back monthly records at a place with 136 years of observations... absolutely astounding. Up to 81F so far: Sault Ste. Marie (weather.gov) Traverse City, Michigan fell a degree short of its monthly record yesterday. Reached 88F. The all-time record is 89F, set on October 2, 1922. Forecast to reach 88F again today. Currently 86F, although there was one 5-minute observation of 88F earlier: Cherry Capital Airport (weather.gov)

Actually quite warm all across upstate New York. Looks like they are actually going to be warmer than most of the Commonwealth during this stretch. The forecast for Buffalo has 89F tomorrow, which would be the second hottest October day on record should it occur, and the hottest in nearly a century (all-time record: 92F, on 10/2/1927).

Syracuse Airport (SYR) is forecast to reach 88F tomorrow, which would tie the monthly record of 88F set on October 1, 2019. Posting here, due to lack of active upstate NY thread. Always worth noting potential monthly or all-time records IMO.

Although a bit outside this subforum, Syracuse is forecast to reach 88F tomorrow. That value would tie the October monthly record of 88F, set on October 1, 2019. Speaking of MWN, out of 2,327 October days [75 years, plus 2 days], only 2 have reached or exceeded 60F. There's a chance that both today and tomorrow may reach 60+. Also, the forecast low of 52F for tomorrow would be second warmest ever observed in the month of October behind only the 54F low observed on October 4, 2005, should it occur.

Could see some readings approaching October monthly highs in parts of New England over the next couple days. Mount Washington is forecast to reach 60F today, which would tie October 12, 2021, for second warmest October day ever observed. The all-time monthly record is 62F, set on October 5, 2005. Burlington, Vermont is forecast to reach 84F tomorrow. The all-time monthly record high there is 85F, set on October 17, 1947 and on October 11, 1949.

This is interesting. Canadian wildfire smoke has tracked all the way south mostly off the eastern seaboard into South Florida. It's actually quite thick, with unhealthy AQI and visibilities reduced to 2-3 miles in spots.

Well, part of that is the fact that the site has a very short POR, and many of the warm Septembers have occurred in recent years - precisely, because the climate is, in fact, warming. Of the sites, I listed all were between 12th and 14th warmest of the most recent 32 years (since 1992), except for BWI which was 5th warmest and a warm outlier. ABE was 15th warmest of the last 32 years. So, yes, the rankings are not nearly as impressive looking at the most recent 32 years. Although all of the nearby, first-order sites still were in the upper 50th percentile.

We'll see what NCEI says in the monthly report, which is usually released around the 11th. They don't use raw co-op data in the rankings, because of time of observation and equipment bias. Oh, I forgot, the adjustments cause the warming!

This is a good point, Tim. Here are the years with the warmest minimum temperature from July 1 to October 3, in the threaded Pittsburgh area record. All poorly-exposed, lower elevation, downtown readings with several recent years at the airport. The minimum so far in 2023 has been 48F. The only warmer year was 1881, with a minimum of 51F. And I know there are some questionable records from that era, but it is what it is. September 1881, while probably not 77.3F or whatever the official number is, was certainly a very warm month. Incredible, we've had records at the airports dating to 1935, and it took until 2016 for any year to make this list and compete with the downtown lows. And now it's occurred 4 times just in 8 years.

Hard to argue with that when this #NotAWeatherGirl is swimming in Wisconsin in October.

Some more October monthly records set or tied today, including 87F at Marquette, Michigan, and 83F at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan. Traverse City reached 88F, falling 1F short of the monthly record set on October 2, 1922. International Falls, Minnesota reached 87F, falling 1F short of the monthly record set on October 5, 1963, and October 11, 2015. Brainerd, Minnesota reached 88F, falling 1F short of the monthly record set yesterday. Green Bay reached 87F, falling 1F short of the monthly record set yesterday and on October 6, 1963. St. Cloud, Minnesota reached 90F, falling 1F short of the monthly record set yesterday. Fun fact for Brainerd: they had the 2nd and 3rd highest temperatures ever recorded in the month of September last month (102, on the 3rd; and 97, on the 4th), and now have the first and second (tied) highest temperatures ever recorded in the month of October (89 yesterday, and 88 today). It also reached 88 on October 2, 1992, and October 2, 1953. Not bad for a POR dating to 1898.

Determining specific temperature records for southeast Pennsylvania from 1000 years ago (around the year 1023) is extremely challenging because there were no direct temperature measurements or climate records during that time. To estimate past climate conditions, scientists rely on various proxies and historical data sources, such as tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents. Based on these sources and general climate knowledge, we can make some broad inferences about what temperatures might have been like in southeast Pennsylvania around 1000 years ago: Medieval Warm Period: Around 1000 years ago, the Earth experienced a period known as the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from approximately the 9th to the 13th century. During this period, temperatures in various parts of the world, including Europe and North America, are believed to have been warmer than during the subsequent Little Ice Age (which occurred roughly from the 14th to the mid-19th century). Regional Variability: Climate conditions during the Medieval Warm Period were not uniform across the globe or even within regions. Some areas may have experienced more significant warming than others, and regional variations in temperature and climate patterns were common. Warmer Winters and Milder Conditions: Generally, the Medieval Warm Period was characterized by milder winters and longer growing seasons compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age. This could have had implications for agriculture and settlement patterns in southeast Pennsylvania. It's important to emphasize that our understanding of past climate conditions is based on various indirect sources and reconstructions. Specific temperature data for southeast Pennsylvania during that period would require more detailed research and analysis by climate scientists, using localized proxies and historical records. These studies can provide a better understanding of regional climate variations during the Medieval Warm Period and other historical periods.

Determining the exact temperatures in a specific region like southeast Pennsylvania 500 years ago is challenging because we don't have direct temperature records dating back that far. To estimate past climate conditions, scientists rely on a variety of proxies and historical data sources, such as tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers, and historical documents. Based on these sources, we can make some general inferences about the climate in southeast Pennsylvania around 500 years ago, which would be approximately in the early 16th century (around 1523-1524). During this time period, the Earth was in a period known as the Little Ice Age, which lasted roughly from the 14th to the mid-19th century. This period was characterized by cooler temperatures compared to the present day. In southeast Pennsylvania during the Little Ice Age, you might expect: Colder Winters: Winters were generally colder and more severe, with more frequent snowfall and ice. Shorter Growing Seasons: The growing seasons for crops would have been shorter due to cooler temperatures, potentially impacting agriculture. Glacial Activity: Some evidence suggests that glaciers in North America, including the nearby Appalachian Mountains, may have advanced during this time. Climate Variability: The Little Ice Age was not a consistent period of unchanging cold; it had periods of colder and milder temperatures, with regional variations. It's important to note that the climate during this time was not uniform across the entire 500-year span, and there would have been natural variability from year to year. To get more precise temperature data or climate reconstructions for southeast Pennsylvania during that period, you would need to consult specific research studies and climate reconstructions that focus on the region. Climate scientists use various methods and proxies to estimate past temperatures, and these studies can provide more detailed insights into historical climate conditions.

I didn't claim it was "way above normal." I said it was well above the median of all years, which it was. Here is ABE: 37th warmest, of 101 years. So a bit of a cool outlier, but, indeed, still above the median, which would be 50th/51st place. Sorry, if the "community notes" aren't appreciated, but I'm a big fan of that feature on X. I think providing useful context to any post that might be misleading is a good thing. Better than simply saying "lol", no?

Community Notes: The official, first-order NWS sites nearest western Chester County all show September 2023 as well above the long-term median. Hagerstown, MD (27th warmest out of 125 years) Harrisburg, PA (24th warmest out of 136 years) Reading, PA (27th warmest out of 128 years) Baltimore, MD (21st warmest out of 152 years) Philadelphia, PA (23rd warmest out of 150 years) Wilmington, DE (31st warmest out of 110 years)

Community Notes: To date, it has been the 11th warmest year on record at DTW (out of 150 years). Prior to 2006, only 4 warmer starts to a year were observed (1921, 1998, 1991, and 1955). In the 117 years from 1874 to 1990, only 2 years were warmer (1921 & 1955).

I mean it hasn't exactly been record-breaking like at MSP, but the period from August 1 to the present is 13th warmest (of 155 years) in the Madison Area threaded record. Only 5 years were warmer since records moved to MSN Airport - 1947, 1948, 1955, 1959 & 2016. Since 1959, only 2016 was warmer than this year has been since August 1. And there has been some bouts of significant heat. Again, while not as impressive as the heat in Minneapolis, some of these monthly values have not been exceeded in decades. In August, MSN reached as high as 96. Only 11 out of 155 years exceeded that value, and none since 1995. Prior to this year, it had not even reached 95F in August since 1995. In September, MSN reached as high as 94F. Only 7 out of 155 years exceeded that value in the month of September. The last time it was warmer in 1978, when it reached 97F. It did also reach 94F in September 2013. And although October is only one day old, yesterday's high of 85F has been exceeded in only 9 years (out of 155 years of record) in the month of October. Point-click is forecasting 86F for MSN today.

Thank you. Also, mean maximum temperature since August 1 is 2nd warmest on record, mean average and mean low temperature are both records for that period - the mean average temperature by a whopping 1.2F, and mean low temperature by 1.5F. Those are massive jumps for a 62-day period! Mean maximum Mean Average Mean Low Interestingly, 17 years had mean average temperatures at or below the mean mimimum temperature from 2023 for this period: And 14 years had mean maximum temperatures less than or equal to the mean average temperature of 2023: