jwilson

The ensembles have been somewhat better than the OP GFS. *All* the members have something, which is fairly interesting. 12 out of 20 give us at least 6", while a few more are borderline to that level depending on your target point. I think it is rare (or at least unusual) to see this at such a range. The question is whether you believe it. Personally, we've been yanked several times already in this winter from ~7 days out. The GFS has been terrible. I'm not quite ready to buy in, but I'm also not sure if the GEFS has honked this season. It will be rather telling if the Euro ensembles at 0Z have anything similar.

I'm wondering how much the specific NWS location is influenced by factors of elevation and just pure geography (being more north and west of the city). I feel like what they measure and experience isn't always what the entirety of the metro area experiences. Now I probably don't have much room to question them as I've only lived in the metro area for just over a year now, but last winter I measured 24.3" on the season while the NWS official Pittsburgh total is 36.6" of snow. I definitely did not have a 5"+ or greater event last winter; the most being that 4" or so on February 20th. I didn't measure a 5" event in the preceding two winters, either, but that data isn't relevant because I was in a different locale. The last storm over 5" I measured was the big one in 2016. And ironically enough, I believe that largely spared Pittsburgh.

Don't fret, folks! March will be rockin' and we'll have a great pattern for snow next fall ... only for it to fall apart before winter actually begins so we can do this all over again.

We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7). We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range. Maybe that's not an issue here. I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output. If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us. Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps. That result seems VERY low probability to me. I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly.

The GFS has been abysmal this winter. I simply don't trust it in this pattern regime. It is January, so the lack of a pronounced antecedent cold should be easier to overcome then if it were March, but we know our local climate. Plenty of caution ahead.

For the current time period going into February, ideal MJO phases are 8 through 3 (as you mention). 4 thru 7 are warm. If the MJO crashes and burns into the COD after a mid-amplitude 7 without even reaching 8, as it is progged to do, that's absolutely less than ideal, downright devious. Bad luck. But it fits with the pacific pattern, which has been driving most of the action this season. The AO isn't helping to counteract any of that bad juju.

Welcome to our little pit of misery! Enjoy commiserating with fellow snow lovers that don't get to see much snow very often, haha. I'm being facetious, of course. Hopefully one of these days we'll see the big dog again, but it appears unlikely - though not impossible - to be this season.

2015-16 was the last year under 30" (29.6"). 1990-91 was the last year under 20" (17.2"). The only other year in relatively modern history below 20" was the winter of 1973-74 (16.6"). Otherwise you're going back to the 30s, which apparently was a horrendous decade for snow. More recently, there was that pretty futile stretch in the late 80s and 90s where PIT was below average 13 out of 16 years, including six years in a row two separate times ('86 thru '92 and then '96 thru '02). This stretch was interspersed with quite high yearly snowfalls exceeding 70" three times (72.1" in '92-'93, 76.8" in '93-'94, and 74.5" in '95-'96). Going below average this year would make 4 of the last 5.

Sort of like how 10 days ago the GFS wanted to give us 10" of snow, and instead we'll be approaching 70F. I wonder how the NWS feels about their updated model.

Yeah, the longer this goes on, the more I'm convinced it is simply an extension of the pattern that served us last winter. They aren't quite the same, but it's more a matter of these conditions are a follow up to those previous. These cycles can last for multiple winters. I don't buy the 10-day solutions that consistently get punted backwards as we get closer. I'm more interested in watching what is driving the current pattern and seeing if there's any chance of it breaking down. Right now, I don't see anything. It's a strong central pacific ridge, supported by the flow upstream, that won't abate. This simply won't be a great winter. That's how the dice rolls on occasion. I should add: there's always the possibility we get a popup storm solution. 2016 comes to mind. Unlikely, and the overall pattern won't be conducive to repeats or consistency, but that's really all there is to save the overall snow totals.

Absent a fluke event, I would say no. There might be a brief relaxation period of the overall pattern in early January. Otherwise . . . This is the doldrums. 50F days around the holidays and an extended period heading into January where snow doesn't really exist. Funnily enough, the Euro weeklies back in early December gave us a total of 11" of snow through the end of January (which of course is well below normal). I thought that was extreme, but as of now I'm more convinced it may be prophetic. This pacific pattern is stout and may last for the foreseeable future. If a pattern change does happen, and it can, we may not know about it until after the fact. However, a lot of winter forecasts also called for an early end to winter. If those are to be believed, "winter" may have only existed in November. One problem we're seeing, I think, is the GFS/GEFS issues overdoing cold in the mid-and-long ranges. They keep wanting to give us snow but it caves every time to the Euro once the timeframe closes. Now they can't be trusted, but I don't know if that's a pattern issue or a model bias. Watch the main indices (PNA / AO / NAO / EPO / MJO) and see if any flip to more favorable conditions.

Long-range models can't decipher a good pattern to save their life, but as soon as a bad one appears: lock it in! You'd think I'd have learned by now that if the Euro shows a bad result, that's the outcome 90% of the time. (Also, if it shows a good result, that only works out 10% of the time). ... What's confirmation bias?

I don't know how others feel, but I prefer a snowy December to snow in March. Kind of disappointing that we've been stuck in this pattern lately where the snow doesn't really show up until January or even February. Still, Pittsburgh is way over due for an >8" storm. Because it isn't unprecedented, I'll consider this some relatively short-term trend. There have been snow lulls in history, extended ones usually followed up by a massive season of >70" total. As an illustration: Six of the last eight years we've had more snow in March than December. The long-term average still favors December, but they are close.

Since I did this for November I figured I should do it for December, as well. 30 year snowfall average in December - 7.8" (Down half an inch from the prior 30-year mean) 21.3" highest amount over this period (2003) T least (1994) We're actually in a bit of a downturn right now, having had below-average snow for four of the last five years (<2" for three of those). Average snowfall in December over last five years - 4.4" (Saved only by 2017-18's 13.3") If the long-range modeling is to be believed, we're about to punt the rest of December, as well, which would indicate another well below average month. I've measured only 1.5" locally so far. This feels like a continuation of "brown" Decembers, a short-term trend. I don't know how long this will last in the grand scheme of things. This year hasn't been as warm as past Decembers, either, but still just as snowless. Perhaps something to keep in mind for the future. I should add this low period isn't completely unique in Pittsburgh's history. You do have to go back quite a while to find any comparable five-year averages. Other than between '98-'02 (a 4.5" average over four years), you have to jump to the 70s to find a similar set of circumstances. Definitely uncommon.

Yeah I agree. I never expected a whole lot from this so I'm hardly disappointed, but based on experience, if there is a "mixed" solution per the models, I almost always err on the side of warmth. Models struggle to handle the low-level warm surge around this area (microclimate). If there isn't a strong block in place, it is pretty much guaranteed we see a warmer solution. I expect mostly rain (if not all rain).

That would be amazing to witness, but I have to imagine the NFL would cancel the game if this happened. Obviously the league did the same back when that Vikings' game was rescheduled and the Eagles, perhaps infamously, lost to Joe Webb later in the week. Link to postponement story: https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=5956740 Link to game results: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201012280phi.htm

The snow looks close, but we have some really dry air to overcome. I have to wonder if this is an error of some kind? The sounding shows a DPT at 826 hPa of -51.3F. That's crazy. Mid-levels are bone dry elsewhere, too, though.

As I would understand it, perhaps the model cannot pick up on an extremely shallow layer of warm air at the surface, which allows precip to reach the ground as snow despite surface temps remaining above freezing? Obviously that sounding depicts a thicker layer of warm air, indicating rain or even freezing rain. I don't know if this "error" can be depicted visually and that's why the sounding looks off or if it's something else entirely. The other problem I believe models have is understanding actual accumulating snow versus snow that falls but does not accumulate. If snow is supported, models expect that snow to accumulate and display the total amounts as such. However, they cannot differentiate when snow does not actually accumulate due to warm air near the surface or warm antecedent air that prevents falling snow from piling up. I'm not an expert, of course, and this is only my speculation. I can confirm it is snowing right now out there but is still too warm at the surface to support accumulating snow.

I know there have been discussions of a "warm" signal, but honestly I don't see anything to indicate we're heading into a prolonged or significant torch season. It is more like moderate temperatures, normal to just slightly above, for a few days at most. I believe all the models are on board with a west based -NAO at this point, and even though that exists in the volatile mid-to-long range, consensus makes me a bit more confident. Ironically, we don't really want a weakened (and potentially white) storm this weekend. We'd be better off getting an over-amped lakes cutter to set the table for next week where the potential exists for something more significant. The GFS has this evolution while the Euro does not. Of course the Euro doesn't give us a whole lot of anything, anyway. Because the pattern is active and in transition, I don't feel particularly strong about any individual storm signals or solutions beyond 3 days. We might have to wait for a surprise. While that's not as satisfying as tracking something longer term, we're in a better position than if things were cold and dry. We've favored cold mostly and have energy consistently arriving.

Hey I heard you guys like snow holes.

I'd say put all of PA under one subforum, but I realize the climates are diverse and it certainly isn't a perfect fit. We all have our "IMBY" preferences and microclimates. Central PA and Western PA only have one thread each and for some reason are lumped in with Upstate New York. That part doesn't make a ton of sense, either. Would Upstate NY (which I assume includes Western NY) fit in better with the NYC forum, making separate NY and PA regions? NJ can remain split - north going to NY and south going to PA. DE could perhaps also split - north into PA and south into Mid-Atlantic. As someone that has lived in three of the four corners of PA, I can attest there are considerable differences. Nonetheless, since all the regions are small on their own, maybe it would be worth it to combine them all into one moderately sized discussion pool? I like following what is happening all over PA and having to jump between forums is somewhat an inconvenience, albeit a very minor one.

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us. If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump. Everything in this current pattern is fast moving. Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point. It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns. A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains. If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise. December is a bit more marginal.

Most of the forecasts I've seen are calling for snow in the middle and peak of winter, but the book-ends may be mild and undesirable for snow lovers. If January comes and goes and we're still below average, only then will I get uncomfortable. For now the lack of snow is merely mild disappointment.

Just what we want and expect to see on December 1st. Severe thunderstorms. Oh, we're not in the southern hemisphere?