jwilson

I still don't love the setup (give me a WAA overrunning event any day, something with simpler dynamics), but I'll be happy to be wrong about the max potential. Not buying in yet. The GFS doesn't concern me too much because it was awful with the 12/16 storm. It had us getting only a couple inches even in the last few runs up to game time. That said, it's still a possible solution, it just doesn't have much support. This does look like it could come down to the mesoscales again. I enjoy tracking, but I don't love sweating out the details into the final 24 hours. I should add this event doesn't really mirror that one in December. We're talking a long duration snowfall here, and because of the speed, we're less reliant on thermodynamics and convection to get a decent snowfall. This is more of a synoptic (large-scale) event. Instead of worrying about where banding sets up, we'll have to see how the timing falls, where the low settles, if it can retrograde west during a capture, etc. Plenty of moving pieces. As an additional note, the Canadian (at least) also shows a Christmas-eve redux event with a massive cold front and crashing temps. That's next weekend (Fri/Sat).

The 12Z Canadian is about the best we could possibly hope for in an outcome. The low apparently stays far enough south of us that we don't cross over to rain, while the primary also drives close enough to get us into the decent front-end snow rates. Then it hangs on for a while and slowly transitions to a coastal. There will be dryslotting, but the CMC depiction keeps us in light snows while the coastal develops and generates more frontogenesis / forcing which brings some better rates into Western PA. The low position on the GFS is only 100 miles different (almost due East) and isn't ambiguous: we change to rain. I think if the location on the CMC was accurate, we would see a changeover in the usual areas despite it acting to the contrary. The CMC is optimistic. Typically we want the low in Kentucky or even Tennessee to avoid the warm tongue. There's delicate timing between the primary approaching and then ultimately dying before we get into rain.

Always the danger in these setups is the dry slot or the too far north movement that brings rain into the equation. Even the folks in D.C. should remain skeptical for now. The last couple systems have trended south quickly and it is possible this one keeps moving south, as well, and isn't locked into its location yet. Either way, I don't anticipate this being a PA special. Maybe points SE and Philly get a moderate snowfall as the low gains latitude. I'll watch for changes, but this setup doesn't excite me.

Seems to be picking up on a trend with the models of a Miller B next Sunday-Tuesday. Not a typically great setup for our area. Our totals will depend on the timing issue and how vigorous the primary low is before transfer. The storm back in December was more of a hybrid system while this one looks like a pure B event, which are great for coastal regions but tricky elsewhere. I would cap expectations (for now) at 4-8" tops. Not a bad event, but not particularly notable, either.

Well, the December honeymoon sure ended quickly. We have a theoretically decent pattern, but the general atmospheric conditions are not poised for snow storms along the east coast. Comes down to a couple different factors, but it seems like the snowy conditions were relegated to Europe and Asia where the PV has hung out most of the winter. Of course, Ninas are typically more dry for us, anyway. I guess we'll see if February changes anything or if snow shows up as we transition to spring and more moisture.

I see two main systems right now: Monday/Tuesday and then Thursday/Friday. Next weekend perhaps has the most potential, but what's depicted on the Euro would look a lot better if it dug and made a turn up the coast. Instead, it just ejects due east. We don't do poorly, though it feels like wasted potential. If the confluence is the issue, then we'll have to wait for it to relax and hope we can time a storm appropriately. There's something else behind that, too, Sunday/Monday (31-1st) but it's too far out and has other pieces in front to know how it will interact. Late January storms are somewhat rare, for whatever reason. Maybe this February won't be like a typical Nina and we get a refresh to re-open the big storm window.

Historical analysis over thirty years - 2005-'06 was the last lean year after a strong December showing: 5.5" in January, 9.7" in February, and 1.4" in March. Most of the time with an above-average December we get at least one more above-average month, but two or even three is much more common. There's a 27-31% chance, give or take, we end winter on a down note and "below normal." If January busts out (below average and/or less than December), our odds increase to a ~67% chance for a below normal rest of winter. The most unusual exception was 1992-'93 - I think we can all see the relevance of that year. January brought only 2.1", but February and March combined for over 52" (18.5" and 34.1" respectively).

Snow on top of snow is the best kind, IMHO. I love the ambience of it.

10.5" storm total here, measured at 3 AM (when the snow was officially over). I was at 9.8 before the final couple bands pushed it over the top. The Euro is a winner here, along with the HREFs (the only short-term model that had us in the 10-12" range in that final 24-hour period). The GFS was awful for this storm, perhaps unsurprisingly. Too many mesoscale features for it to handle. The NAM waffled too much. It was correct on a couple runs, I suppose. Now enjoy the snow gifs. Most were taken at the height of the storm where we briefly touched 4"/hr rates.

I'm up to 6.25" of snow here. We legit hit 4"/hr rates in that mega band not long ago. While I was on my "Jebwalk," I measured an inch in 15 minutes at peak. Too bad it didn't last longer.

I'm going to be Ross in a minute yelling at those returns just to my west to PIVOT.

Thank you! Current obs: stuck in an area of subsidence. Feel like we've been here for a while now and that will cut totals down.

I think it is in the process of doing that now, but on that note, does anyone know of a good site for real-time surface and upper-air maps? I can't seem to find one.

You can kind of see the size of the flakes in that band. Huge growth. Must be near max lift in the DGZ. https://i.imgur.com/zY1qXFE.mp4

Border of Mt. Lebo/USC

Ripping hard right now. This band is fantastic. SN+

Looks like some dry air is penetrating from the west/southwest. Perhaps we have a lull until the coastal starts cranking.

I'm seeing some 35-40 DBZ returns to our south in Greene county. Is that sleet or an intense band of snow?

Approaching moderate snow here. The growth itself isn't terrible, but I'd place it as a little less than optimal.

Comparing it to some of the model runs yesterday ... the low location is basically right on off the SC coast, and that's accurate for the time frame, but the precip shield was grossly undermodeled, especially on the western side, but also throughout the entire "snow" region of the precip. That could be good news. Maybe we get an overperformance here. We'll have to see how the banding sets up later.

Yeah the storm is about 2-3 hours ahead of schedule, at least according to most mesoscale models.

Entering the first - and hopefully last - dry slot of the day. Rates dropped off significantly. That first round put down a light coating on most surfaces.

Definitely snowing here now in the South Hills. A consistent rate but still quite light.

I'm checking the cams here: http://wv511.org/#MapPlace:-80.146723587035:39.608696977762:-79.817133743284:39.711115431707 It looks like it is actually starting to snow now.

As for nowcasting time, I do see some 30 DBZ returns to our south already, which would be pretty far ahead of schedule. I'm trying to see if it's actually snowing in Morgantown, but it doesn't look like it yet. I'm guessing we're still in virga territory. Edit - ah I do see a few flakes in downtown. Perhaps it has started.