jwilson

My hopefully positive takeaway from this winter: improvements to modeling science. We've seen time-and-time again models simply default to snow - and big snow - in the long-range. Anytime we get within 4 to 7 days, however, all that snow vanishes into a calm wind. The GFS is especially infamous for this, but it isn't alone. Clearly there are limitations that seem to favor deep storm systems and lots of snow in the long range. Ideally, folks can use this winter as another learning tool to correct these biases and flaws, and one day the models will stop teasing us with Siberian looks when all we get is ... Richmond, VA.

Your best bet is trying to sample from archive.org. Here's the generic archive link for the forum itself: https://web.archive.org/web/2019*/www.easternuswx.com. From there, you can attempt to get more information by using individual forum pages and putting those into the wayback machine. For example, here's one using the link provided in that NBC news article: https://web.archive.org/web/20100301000000*/http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15 ... There's a few hits from February 2010 in there. Being that it's a forum, not every page is saved through the archive, of course. You'll hit lots of dead ends, but you'll also find the occasional goody. I even found one of my old posts from back in the day: Well, this ended up being a pretty good prognostication. Looking back, I see the last true snow of that season occurred on the 25/26th. March was empty. Then 2010/11 provided a respectable follow-up. Something about a blind squirrel... What I don't know is if any of the old administrators have the entire forum saved or backed-up somewhere in an archive that isn't available online. You'd have to ask those people individually. I remember there was another forum prior to EasternUSWX, but I can't remember what that forum was called.

That was a good winter, for sure, but as others have already mentioned, January was very quiet and there were extremely sharp gradients with each of the storms. Here's one example: Through the first two major storms, I had received HALF of what Philadelphia measured. The December storm and the first in February were only about a foot each in my backyard (12-13"), while the official measurements for those two storms were 23.2" and 28.5", respectively. The northern portions finally hit a bit better on the February 10th storm, where I received ~23" relative to the 15.8" official total. That 23" was broken up in two pieces, however (7" overnight, then a lull, followed by 16" with the remainder). I have quite a few pictures from that winter. I guess I'll share a couple from each storm. Caption underneath. This is unrelated to the three snowstorms, but it is to help illustrate how dynamic the weather was in December that year. These were poorly defined mammatus clouds from an early December storm front (12/9). We received hail from this storm and intense wind. What I always thought was remarkable about the December system: down in the Gulf was what amounted to an eye on the central low pressure. Perhaps the most interesting element of the December storm: giant icicles. The snowfall itself was relatively tame compared to the later snows. This was the "table setter" event from February 3rd. Not much, but it was probably more than any storm from this winter. From the first main February storm (2/6). Snow emergency route looks about right. Cars on the street. This will be important for comparative purposes in a little bit. Same February storm (2/6). Here is a view during the morning lull between the overnight snows on 2/9 and the bulk of the snow on the 10th of February. During the height of the storm. This is as low as visibility dropped, down to about 500' or so. The camera really doesn't do it justice. You can compare the snow depth to above. Stock photo of bank on the same day. I trekked through Hatboro during the storm. Quiet streets during a snowy day. The roads are relatively clear in this pic, but I remember walking through some areas that hadn't been plowed. Snow up to and above my knees made walking difficult. RIP Big Marty's. The snow didn't kill it. Visibility drops, though some people either had to or chose to brave the conditions via automobile. This is night-time snow depth on the road after the plows had essentially given up. Close to a foot there, footprints visible for scale. The snow and wind continued during the night. I remember watching the blue lights in the sky from transformers sparking. Signs obscured by blowing snow that piled up. Sorry for the blurriness, but my digicam at the time wasn't capable of great night pics without a flash. Almost final snow depth, again considering comparing to above. Car almost completely buried. We'll end with a brief video during the main snow on 2/10. Quality looks like it was shot in 1980, but I assure you it wasn't, just "old" technology. Wish I had my phone from today then. Also, sorry for the guerrilla-style videography. That about sums it up. I have more stuff from that winter and others. Seems like too much to dump unless I had a website like Ray's. Hope you enjoyed your pictorial tour of 2009-10.

That's through February 12th. Honestly, 3" in the prime of winter over a two week period is almost guaranteed around here. That's not hard to come by, and that's why I'd say it's not a hugely relevant statistic. We have some cold air now with potential access to more in the near future, as well a bit more favorable ridge and trough axis, but we might need to hit the window just right or storms will slide to our south (then in between continue to cut west as has been the typical track all year).

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS have backed off significantly from the earlier solutions, while the Euro ensembles are basically a nothing-burger. There's still time for a more phased solution to return, but it was always a long shot. Long-term snowfall probabilities have us at essentially a 100% chance of more than three inches over the next couple weeks, but that doesn't mean a whole lot, really, considering the length of the term.

The ensembles have been somewhat better than the OP GFS. *All* the members have something, which is fairly interesting. 12 out of 20 give us at least 6", while a few more are borderline to that level depending on your target point. I think it is rare (or at least unusual) to see this at such a range. The question is whether you believe it. Personally, we've been yanked several times already in this winter from ~7 days out. The GFS has been terrible. I'm not quite ready to buy in, but I'm also not sure if the GEFS has honked this season. It will be rather telling if the Euro ensembles at 0Z have anything similar.

Thanks for that info! That is interesting to hear. Where I live now (Pittsburgh metro), December has - long-term - actually beaten March and historically been the better month for snow. However, the last five years (this year will be the sixth, I get a sense) have bucked the trend so much that the new 30-year mean will actually have March with a higher average than December. Locally, between '99 and '13, not a single March month had double-digit snowfall, whereas in December it was closer to every-other year. Now the tables have flipped and we've only hit double-digits in December once since '14, with three of those below 2" total. This might just be a short-term trend and we'll see things change after another decade of measurements are available, but at least for now it's kind of odd.

I'm wondering how much the specific NWS location is influenced by factors of elevation and just pure geography (being more north and west of the city). I feel like what they measure and experience isn't always what the entirety of the metro area experiences. Now I probably don't have much room to question them as I've only lived in the metro area for just over a year now, but last winter I measured 24.3" on the season while the NWS official Pittsburgh total is 36.6" of snow. I definitely did not have a 5"+ or greater event last winter; the most being that 4" or so on February 20th. I didn't measure a 5" event in the preceding two winters, either, but that data isn't relevant because I was in a different locale. The last storm over 5" I measured was the big one in 2016. And ironically enough, I believe that largely spared Pittsburgh.

I guess this isn't an unpopular opinion, but I'd almost certainly prefer to see snow levels increase in November and December and then relax in February and March. It seems the opposite of that is what's actually happening, however. Are seasons shifting in terms of their place on our traditional calendar, or disappearing altogether? I'm sure this also depends on where you live. The midwest still does quite well with early season snow storms.

Isn't the "hypothetical" end of climate change that the more extreme results become more common and there is less in the middle ground? I think that hypothesis would correspond to the idea that snowfall in certain areas extends more to the bell-ends of the curve, while the middle chunk of the curve bottoms out. Instead of a bell curve, we get a half-pipe. As a few of you already discussed, the idea is feast-or-famine events (or seasons), while still maintaining the semblance of a traditional long-term average. The one thing I've noticed as an adult now compared to a kid in the 80s and 90s: we have apparently shifted away from the four season model and are down to two: summer and winter. This is purely observational on my end, and I don't know if data confirms it in any way. Observing the trends, it seems we have less normal seasonal breakdowns. Now the last few summers haven't been as hot as perhaps in the past, but we've shifted those temperature spikes away from the middle of summer and they can now extend deep into "fall" (September and October). Likewise, we're seeing the extension of winter into spring months. Even recent May months have been cool and wet, whereas April can swing wildly either way (from hot to cold). Maybe it's just a short-term cycle and there is no long-term change. I don't know for sure. Like I said, I'm basing that off my own observations. Perhaps my memory is also failing me as to how conditions existed when we were kids. I will say the 90s really weren't all that great for snow growing up in Philadelphia. Obviously we had at least two major remarkable events ('93 and '96), but outside of those, I don't think there was anything extraordinary about the decade. The last ten years have been much more interesting, starting with '09-'10 of course. I guess my final question would be: if global warming continues, would that see the eradication of "La Nina" conditions as we know them? Maybe that's a stupid question, but thinking about the warming waters of the globe, I would think it'd be harder to get cool or negative temperature anomalies. Or would that not be the case and instead we'd simply see more extreme versions of La Nina with intense negative spikes to couple with the opposite, as well?

Don't fret, folks! March will be rockin' and we'll have a great pattern for snow next fall ... only for it to fall apart before winter actually begins so we can do this all over again.

We've seen the Euro over-amplify systems in the mid-range (say between Days 4-7). We're at the back end of that window right now, still arguably in the long-range. Maybe that's not an issue here. I realize the GFS is an amped-up storm, as well, but the temperatures at the mid-levels and above are warm, hence the output. If we're getting southerly flow it isn't going to stay all frozen, at least not for us. Also working against us: bullseye at this timeframe is always bad, but even regardless of that, I don't think I've ever seen a "western PA special" like how it is depicted on the maps. That result seems VERY low probability to me. I'd be happy to be wrong if anyone can present evidence of storms that have evolved similarly.

The GFS has been abysmal this winter. I simply don't trust it in this pattern regime. It is January, so the lack of a pronounced antecedent cold should be easier to overcome then if it were March, but we know our local climate. Plenty of caution ahead.

Which one is that? Seeing the GFS spit out those 5" readings was comical, given the result. Bar none it seems to be almost completely worthless this season.

Temp has risen 5 degrees since snow stopped, but maybe there's room for some evap. cooling once it kicks back in (and had just slightly begun).

Moderate snow in Hatboro - cold (19F) and small, powdery flakes. I haven't measured yet, but eyeballing 0.5" on all surfaces.

Petition to re-title this thread as, "Winter cracks the door open a smidge to see how the party is, decides to leave instead because it looks boring."

For the current time period going into February, ideal MJO phases are 8 through 3 (as you mention). 4 thru 7 are warm. If the MJO crashes and burns into the COD after a mid-amplitude 7 without even reaching 8, as it is progged to do, that's absolutely less than ideal, downright devious. Bad luck. But it fits with the pacific pattern, which has been driving most of the action this season. The AO isn't helping to counteract any of that bad juju.

Welcome to our little pit of misery! Enjoy commiserating with fellow snow lovers that don't get to see much snow very often, haha. I'm being facetious, of course. Hopefully one of these days we'll see the big dog again, but it appears unlikely - though not impossible - to be this season.

2015-16 was the last year under 30" (29.6"). 1990-91 was the last year under 20" (17.2"). The only other year in relatively modern history below 20" was the winter of 1973-74 (16.6"). Otherwise you're going back to the 30s, which apparently was a horrendous decade for snow. More recently, there was that pretty futile stretch in the late 80s and 90s where PIT was below average 13 out of 16 years, including six years in a row two separate times ('86 thru '92 and then '96 thru '02). This stretch was interspersed with quite high yearly snowfalls exceeding 70" three times (72.1" in '92-'93, 76.8" in '93-'94, and 74.5" in '95-'96). Going below average this year would make 4 of the last 5.

Sort of like how 10 days ago the GFS wanted to give us 10" of snow, and instead we'll be approaching 70F. I wonder how the NWS feels about their updated model.

It snowed at a decent rate for an hour or so, but the flakes were small and it didn't accumulate anywhere except on elevated surfaces (and the grass has frosted tips, I guess). I guess you'd measure that at 0.1" or so.

Light snow/rain mix just started falling in Hatboro. 40F still, 25 DP. Hopefully that evap. cooling sets in quickly.

Yeah, the longer this goes on, the more I'm convinced it is simply an extension of the pattern that served us last winter. They aren't quite the same, but it's more a matter of these conditions are a follow up to those previous. These cycles can last for multiple winters. I don't buy the 10-day solutions that consistently get punted backwards as we get closer. I'm more interested in watching what is driving the current pattern and seeing if there's any chance of it breaking down. Right now, I don't see anything. It's a strong central pacific ridge, supported by the flow upstream, that won't abate. This simply won't be a great winter. That's how the dice rolls on occasion. I should add: there's always the possibility we get a popup storm solution. 2016 comes to mind. Unlikely, and the overall pattern won't be conducive to repeats or consistency, but that's really all there is to save the overall snow totals.

All this moisture is almost too much of a good thing (from a theoretical perspective). Despite the wet years, it hasn't translated into more snow. It is rare for all the teleconnections to align for positive outcomes. Likewise, it simply becomes a game of chance (or only a matter of time) when they'll all align in the opposite direction for pure nightmare fuel. -PNA, +AO, +NAO, poor MJO alignment. All at once. I don't know enough about the interrelationships and atmospheric science, but I feel like it is bound to happen eventually.