jwilson

Absent a fluke event, I would say no. There might be a brief relaxation period of the overall pattern in early January. Otherwise . . . This is the doldrums. 50F days around the holidays and an extended period heading into January where snow doesn't really exist. Funnily enough, the Euro weeklies back in early December gave us a total of 11" of snow through the end of January (which of course is well below normal). I thought that was extreme, but as of now I'm more convinced it may be prophetic. This pacific pattern is stout and may last for the foreseeable future. If a pattern change does happen, and it can, we may not know about it until after the fact. However, a lot of winter forecasts also called for an early end to winter. If those are to be believed, "winter" may have only existed in November. One problem we're seeing, I think, is the GFS/GEFS issues overdoing cold in the mid-and-long ranges. They keep wanting to give us snow but it caves every time to the Euro once the timeframe closes. Now they can't be trusted, but I don't know if that's a pattern issue or a model bias. Watch the main indices (PNA / AO / NAO / EPO / MJO) and see if any flip to more favorable conditions.

Truthfully, I don't know much of anything about Johnstown other than the big flood happened there. I will say being in the Laurel Highlands is a huge benefit, as you figured from the increased snow totals, though the really big winner tends to be Garrett County, Maryland. They are constantly getting warning level events while Pittsburgh metro gets a dusting or even nothing at all. The big ski towns like Seven Springs and Hidden Valley (near Somerset, PA) are the next best snow locales in the area. With some places you have to be careful of microclimates. If you're on the leeward side of a ridge or "mountain" you'll see isolated spots without much accumulation relative to the rest of the area. I'm a "big storm" guy so for me it's a struggle. Watching Philly get coastals while we have a high ceiling isn't ideal. If we ever get a '93 superstorm again, though, then we're in the money! I don't know why I haven't just moved to a ski town and gotten it over with. I feel like we played this game before, notably last year. The good pattern kept appearing in the D10 range but would just as quickly vanish. I don't even know if I should compare the two years because I'm not sure they are analogous, but the lack of predictability now isn't my cup of tea. I will say we seemingly had good patterns progged for Christmas, then New Year's, until we didn't, and we're high and dry. Back to the drawing board for long range forecasters. If nothing happens for the first few weeks of January then you're gonna have to punt the whole month. I'm an end-of-January birthday and I couldn't even tell you the last time we had snow of any significance during that last week of January. Not for as long as I've been alive. I don't know why but it doesn't happen.

Pittsburgh metro averages 41" or so each year. Almost all of that is nickel and dime stuff. We get weak lake-enhanced squalls (relative to the actual lake areas like Erie), clippers, etc. Think 10-20 events of 1-3" over the winter. Storms of more than 6" are actually quite rare, and there hasn't been a storm greater than 8" since 2010. Too far west for Miller B's, warm-tongue microclimate (due to geographic relation to mountains) that can result in rain for Miller A's. I realize the seasonal average is double that of Philly's so it sounds great, but really, as a snow lover I am not at all impressed.

Appreciate your analysis. I agree on not being ready to cancel winter, but these slow starts lately can be discouraging. I come back to Philly for the holidays each year and it has been quite a long time since we've had snow around Christmas or New Year's. At least from what my brain will let me remember. Last year especially (among others) have been cold, even brutally so, but also dry in recent history. One of these years we might see December return. I assume it's only a short-term episode and not something longer term (or permanent) attributable to climactic or environmental shifts. On the western side of the state, March has out-performed December in six of the last eight years despite long-term averages favoring December for now.

Long-range models can't decipher a good pattern to save their life, but as soon as a bad one appears: lock it in! You'd think I'd have learned by now that if the Euro shows a bad result, that's the outcome 90% of the time. (Also, if it shows a good result, that only works out 10% of the time). ... What's confirmation bias?

I don't know how others feel, but I prefer a snowy December to snow in March. Kind of disappointing that we've been stuck in this pattern lately where the snow doesn't really show up until January or even February. Still, Pittsburgh is way over due for an >8" storm. Because it isn't unprecedented, I'll consider this some relatively short-term trend. There have been snow lulls in history, extended ones usually followed up by a massive season of >70" total. As an illustration: Six of the last eight years we've had more snow in March than December. The long-term average still favors December, but they are close.

Since I did this for November I figured I should do it for December, as well. 30 year snowfall average in December - 7.8" (Down half an inch from the prior 30-year mean) 21.3" highest amount over this period (2003) T least (1994) We're actually in a bit of a downturn right now, having had below-average snow for four of the last five years (<2" for three of those). Average snowfall in December over last five years - 4.4" (Saved only by 2017-18's 13.3") If the long-range modeling is to be believed, we're about to punt the rest of December, as well, which would indicate another well below average month. I've measured only 1.5" locally so far. This feels like a continuation of "brown" Decembers, a short-term trend. I don't know how long this will last in the grand scheme of things. This year hasn't been as warm as past Decembers, either, but still just as snowless. Perhaps something to keep in mind for the future. I should add this low period isn't completely unique in Pittsburgh's history. You do have to go back quite a while to find any comparable five-year averages. Other than between '98-'02 (a 4.5" average over four years), you have to jump to the 70s to find a similar set of circumstances. Definitely uncommon.

Yeah I agree. I never expected a whole lot from this so I'm hardly disappointed, but based on experience, if there is a "mixed" solution per the models, I almost always err on the side of warmth. Models struggle to handle the low-level warm surge around this area (microclimate). If there isn't a strong block in place, it is pretty much guaranteed we see a warmer solution. I expect mostly rain (if not all rain).

That would be amazing to witness, but I have to imagine the NFL would cancel the game if this happened. Obviously the league did the same back when that Vikings' game was rescheduled and the Eagles, perhaps infamously, lost to Joe Webb later in the week. Link to postponement story: https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=5956740 Link to game results: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201012280phi.htm

The snow looks close, but we have some really dry air to overcome. I have to wonder if this is an error of some kind? The sounding shows a DPT at 826 hPa of -51.3F. That's crazy. Mid-levels are bone dry elsewhere, too, though.

As I would understand it, perhaps the model cannot pick up on an extremely shallow layer of warm air at the surface, which allows precip to reach the ground as snow despite surface temps remaining above freezing? Obviously that sounding depicts a thicker layer of warm air, indicating rain or even freezing rain. I don't know if this "error" can be depicted visually and that's why the sounding looks off or if it's something else entirely. The other problem I believe models have is understanding actual accumulating snow versus snow that falls but does not accumulate. If snow is supported, models expect that snow to accumulate and display the total amounts as such. However, they cannot differentiate when snow does not actually accumulate due to warm air near the surface or warm antecedent air that prevents falling snow from piling up. I'm not an expert, of course, and this is only my speculation. I can confirm it is snowing right now out there but is still too warm at the surface to support accumulating snow.

I know there have been discussions of a "warm" signal, but honestly I don't see anything to indicate we're heading into a prolonged or significant torch season. It is more like moderate temperatures, normal to just slightly above, for a few days at most. I believe all the models are on board with a west based -NAO at this point, and even though that exists in the volatile mid-to-long range, consensus makes me a bit more confident. Ironically, we don't really want a weakened (and potentially white) storm this weekend. We'd be better off getting an over-amped lakes cutter to set the table for next week where the potential exists for something more significant. The GFS has this evolution while the Euro does not. Of course the Euro doesn't give us a whole lot of anything, anyway. Because the pattern is active and in transition, I don't feel particularly strong about any individual storm signals or solutions beyond 3 days. We might have to wait for a surprise. While that's not as satisfying as tracking something longer term, we're in a better position than if things were cold and dry. We've favored cold mostly and have energy consistently arriving.

Hey I heard you guys like snow holes.

I'd say put all of PA under one subforum, but I realize the climates are diverse and it certainly isn't a perfect fit. We all have our "IMBY" preferences and microclimates. Central PA and Western PA only have one thread each and for some reason are lumped in with Upstate New York. That part doesn't make a ton of sense, either. Would Upstate NY (which I assume includes Western NY) fit in better with the NYC forum, making separate NY and PA regions? NJ can remain split - north going to NY and south going to PA. DE could perhaps also split - north into PA and south into Mid-Atlantic. As someone that has lived in three of the four corners of PA, I can attest there are considerable differences. Nonetheless, since all the regions are small on their own, maybe it would be worth it to combine them all into one moderately sized discussion pool? I like following what is happening all over PA and having to jump between forums is somewhat an inconvenience, albeit a very minor one.

Seems like one of those where the typical north trend won't happen because it would actually benefit us. If it doesn't work out, after some more 50 degree rain on Saturday, the system next Monday could lend itself to a quick thump. Everything in this current pattern is fast moving. Doesn't allow for much major snow but we could score a respectable thump at some point. It certainly doesn't seem like a shut-out pattern (at least not for everyone, never can be too sure).

It is still early - too early, really - to talk about a potential storm next weekend, but my initial concern would be too westward of a track, leading to warm tongue concerns. A strong CAD signature isn't relevant west of the mountains. If it was the height of winter with deep cold maybe I'd feel otherwise. December is a bit more marginal.

Most of the forecasts I've seen are calling for snow in the middle and peak of winter, but the book-ends may be mild and undesirable for snow lovers. If January comes and goes and we're still below average, only then will I get uncomfortable. For now the lack of snow is merely mild disappointment.

Just what we want and expect to see on December 1st. Severe thunderstorms. Oh, we're not in the southern hemisphere?

I'd be happy with an inch, but it looks to dry out as the last one did. I'll expect nothing. Last 30 years in November: 13.9" most (1995-96) Trace least (9 different years) 2.3" average In addition to those nine "trace" years, we can add four more years of less than an inch received. To me that is more or less equivalent to nothing. 13/30 or 43% of the time. Those aren't great odds of getting relevant accumulating snow in November. Add in four more years with between 1" and 2" and that's over 50% of the time we can't even muster 2" in November, total. Take out those two unusual high-end amounts ('95 and '13) and the average drops to 1.6" instead.

High-res NAM goes to all snow at 3 PM tomorrow in these parts. GFS is a bit slower and keeps the precip around for longer, through 8 PM or so. Neither gives us much at all and leaves a nice little hole over Pittsburgh. Maybe we can grab a sloppy inch for a taste. As usual the ridges and lake counties do better and might get a couple.

FIrst measurable snowfall last year was November 15/16. I think it is possible we can beat that date this year. Bigger question may be whether we can sustain a favorable pattern this winter as compared to last.

Well, at this time of year, probably not much (super low ratios). 5-10" maybe? If we can get this into some cold in January, perhaps a nice foot or two.

THE WARM TONGUE DOES NOT ABATE! Seriously though, we had a fairly prolonged period of -NAO through this year (spring/summer). Hopefully that holds into the winter. Seems like it has been a while since we've seen the same during the cold seasons. It would really help our chances.

I was still living in Philly at the time, so not sure if that's the information you're after, but we managed a little over 12" (most all of it was on the 6th, but a little fell before midnight). Our bigger storm was a few days later on the 9th and 10th. There we pulled >23" and some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen in person, with visibility down to about 200 feet.

Remember when September used to be a cool month? I don't know if data confirms this, but it seems like we're losing four seasons and basically contracting down to two (6 months of summer and 6 months of winter). Looks like the heat will continue into October again.