jwilson

That snowfall map above looks quite familiar...

Dreamweaver is pretty comprehensive, and it helps a ton if you know how to code HTML/PHP/CSS (among others). That's the only true web developing program I've ever used. If you don't have much experience coding, you can consider using something like Squarespace which gives you templates and does most of the backend work for you. Most of those sites end up looking a tad "samey" which might be a turn-off, but if you aren't overly concerned with looks, you might not care. I'm guessing for your needs, you'll be more concerned about functionality and utility versus aesthetics. Wordpress is another option. If you're data-heavy, building a MySQL/SQL database will be a more intensive task but may be worth it in the long-run. That said, it really depends what you need. If you're not relying on queries or interactivity much then it's possibly overkill. I used to do freelance web developing back in the day. It has been a few years since I've truly built a website from scratch, but if you needed some assistance with basic things I could probably help. Likewise if there are any graphics you need.

This winter looks like it could be the strongest La Nina since the winter of 2010-11.. which, if we look back, Pittsburgh received 56.7" of snow that year, decently above the most recent 30-year average of 42" or so. Now that's a simplistic look at the Nina (you can dive deeper into the specific east/west/central orientation). I don't have the time right now to look much deeper. I will, however, quickly compare other strong La Nina winters (anything below -1.0 value) to see how Pittsburgh has done historically in snowfall terms, starting with the most recent: 2011-12 // Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.9" 2010-11 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 56.7" 2007-08 // Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 41.2" 1999-00 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 27.1" 1998-99 // Peak Nina value of -1.6 - Snowfall: 39.2" 1988-89 // Peak Nina value of -1.8 - Snowfall: 21.7" 1984-85 // Peak Nina value of -1.1 - Snowfall: 36.4" 1975-76 // Peak Nina value of -1.7 - Snowfall: 35.6" 1973-74 // Peak Nina value of -2.0 - Snowfall: 16.6" 1970-71 // Peak Nina value of -1.4 - Snowfall: 59.9" Average snowfall over these 10 winters: 37.1" The mean Nina prediction right now favors one below -1.5. I could keep going back further but figure records from that era are relatively meaningless given overall climate changes. From this sample of 10 years, however, we see that the majority of these winters are below average in snowfall terms (7 out of 10). One year is basically right on average, while two winters were above normal. Once again, I admit this is a very basic analysis and does not include looking at other teleconnections or signals that could have driven the winter beyond the Nina/Nino state. Still, even at the basic level, this isn't a promising look if you're a snowfall lover. Assuming we manage a strong Nina, chances greatly favor a below-average snowfall season. This could be considered bad news coming off one of the WORST snowfall seasons last year (22.4", lowest since 1990-91). Ultimately, it isn't set in stone, however. There are chances some other atmospheric condition could override or overpower the Nina and drive the dominant weather pattern. The forecast for above-average temps all winter obviously coincides with a prediction for less snow than "normal," but again, it doesn't guarantee anything so long as there are actual cold spells from time-to-time. On an additional note, I think I consider 2010-11 an outlier given it was the follow-up to the tremendous winter of 2009-10, which will remain unmatched for who knows how long. Those winters were aided heavily by a record-breaking -AO, making the ENSO state much less important.

So are we going to pay for this in October with 90s, or are we going to have an actual autumn this year?

Winds starting to move a bit more now as we're approaching what would be the eye wall. Neighbor just lost a tree in their back yard, though luckily it mostly hit nothing with some braches laying on the lines.

It is coming down in buckets now. Lots of standing water. The winds have picked up, as well, but nothing TS force yet.

Ended up driving in last night. Rain had mostly dissipated. This morning we're presently on the dry side or very eastern edge of the precip which should soften flooding locally, though it looks bad just to my west.

Having to drive into Philly this week. I was originally planning tomorrow morning, but looks like I should re-think that option and do it tonight, instead. I've checked the models, and the GFS is faster than most of the others (Euro, CMC, etc). That said, the Hurricane models themselves don't look particularly appealing during the morning hours tomorrow. Seems between 10 and 3 could be the peak, give or take.

I was in 8th grade at the time and remember getting out of school early, only I had to walk home in the absolutely pouring rain. There were some places locally that used to flood quite often in the 90s and early aughts, I don't think they've had those issues in a while. Whether that's a change in weather or mitigation, I'm not sure, but I do think some of those rain storms have been unequaled.

I'm a storm chaser at heart, so mostly I'm interested in storm development for something to follow. Yesterday's early morning derecho that swept across the state acted like a broom for our area and essentially pushed all the instability south and east of us. The resulting outflow setup convection across extreme southern PA into WV. Locally, we haven't had a real thunderstorm since April 8th. I have to think two months during the spring without an event is pretty unusual for this area, although June and July are the peak months on average. The cooler spring is the main culprit, of course. Considering it will maintain 80s through October nowadays I guess we have to be okay with it. We'll likely make up for it later. Yep. It's bad enough missing out during the winter months, but now we keep missing during thunderstorm season, too? In the end I'm sure it's just a blip. Things will turn around at some point. Theoretically they should, anyway.

Another "slight" risk of severe today and it looks like, once again, Pittsburgh metro and points north will miss out. Depends on your perspective, of course, but it seems like the metro area has been having some bad luck lately on the stormy weather. Everything seems to be missing south or farther north.

At this time of year, if anything over a trace would be historic, a 9" snowfall would be biblical, and I'd consider Armageddon right around the corner.

We've had a trace of snow in May twice since 2000 ('01-'02 & '15-'16).. let's go for a third.

If it wasn't for today, we would have had a higher max temp in January (71) this year than in April (70 was previous max). Oof.

Well that was an intense line, definitely one of the most dynamic cells I've witnessed since living here. Tornado warning popped on the TV, but it wasn't really for us. Hope you're all good up in New Kensington. Twitter report said there was a tornado near Markle. I was watching power flashes in the distance from my viewpoint. Actually a lot of other strange lighting colors during the storm, as well.

We got a very brief and minor bout of hail yesterday with that "supercell," but it seemed the actual hail core went south of us, closer to Canonsburg. Our hail was minuscule in comparison (pea size at the most).

For 2009, even I got screwed a tad on that one being in the Philly suburbs. Philly measured 23" and I got 12" - that entire winter was full of tight gradient snow storms.

If Wichita Falls, TX is getting a bigger snow than we've seen in years, you know there's something funky going on in weather town.

Long-range models can't decipher a good pattern to save their life, but as soon as a bad one appears: lock it in! You'd think I'd have learned by now that if the Euro shows a bad result, that's the outcome 90% of the time. (Also, if it shows a good result, that only works out 10% of the time). ... What's confirmation bias?

I don't know how others feel, but I prefer a snowy December to snow in March. Kind of disappointing that we've been stuck in this pattern lately where the snow doesn't really show up until January or even February. Still, Pittsburgh is way over due for an >8" storm. Because it isn't unprecedented, I'll consider this some relatively short-term trend. There have been snow lulls in history, extended ones usually followed up by a massive season of >70" total. As an illustration: Six of the last eight years we've had more snow in March than December. The long-term average still favors December, but they are close.

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long. Some people just need perspective, really. There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here. I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

This just about sums it up for us. Welcome to the Screw Zone™ for all time.

The more these rain storms occur, the more I think this just isn't our winter. It was 0F last night and is close to 50F today. The atmosphere wants to rain here and that's it, as evidenced by our wettest year on record. This is a harsh pattern we've been set in since mid-2018 probably. If we're lucky, we'll dry out just in time for next winter.

We're well below normal so far (if we finish that way, it would make 3 of the last 4 winters). I agree that expectations for this winter were high. Things looked to align, but at this point, we're going to need a backloaded winter. The blocking that I think we require continues to be two weeks away in the long-term. Maybe by February it will actually coalesce. I'm hoping we don't revert to a bad pacific pattern or lose our moisture conveyor if the blocking comes together, but that's always possible.