MJO812

Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Mike Masco THE EARLY WINTER MODEL SIGNALS ARE GETTING VERY INTERESTING... I know, I know... WAY too early! But we've reached the point in the forecast calendar where I start looking at the broader trends in the CFSv2 to see what type of atmospheric configuration the models are beginning to latch onto. This is NOT the time to start predicting snowfall totals or declaring the winter warm or cold. Instead, I'm watching three major players at the 500mb and 1000mb levels that could eventually shape how this winter unfolds: GREENLAND BLOCKING — OR LACK THEREOF Where does blocking develop, and is it focused west or east of Greenland? This is one of the biggest variables for the East Coast. A favorable blocking pattern can slow storms near the coast while helping cold Canadian air press south. This signal often isn't fully realized until we're already entering or exiting a blocking cycle, and its impact will be closely tied to the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex. This becomes especially important from late December through mid-February. THE ALEUTIAN / NORTH PACIFIC PATTERN I'm watching whether the height field near the Aleutian Islands trends stronger or weaker. This signal should become much clearer by late November and can have major implications for how much Pacific air floods into the country. A stronger Pacific influence could overwhelm the northern half of the U.S. with milder-than-normal air — something I'll be watching VERY closely. THE SUBTROPICAL JET — THE BIG ONE So far, this has been the most compelling signal and exactly the type of feature you'd expect during an El Niño winter. You can have all the cold air in the world, but you can't get a snowstorm without moisture. A juiced-up subtropical jet could provide plenty of storm opportunities this winter. Right now, I think this is the major wildcard for producing some BIG storms, potentially favoring the Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania, with the strongest signal across the southern U.S. The million-dollar question for the Northeast: Can the cold air meet the moisture at the right time? That's where Greenland blocking, the Polar Vortex and the Canadian pattern become incredibly important. Again — this is NOT a winter forecast. It's an early look at the atmospheric players I'm watching as the pieces slowly begin to come together. Plenty will change between now and December... but the early signals are certainly worth watching.

Use to it

Lol

The smell of pumpkin spice.

1 storm can do wonders. Get ready.

Yep just like Jan 2016. That's one of the analog years everyone is throwing around ( 2015-2016 ). Good thing is that the STJ will be very active so there shouldn't be a shortage of storms even if they are rain or a mix bag.

Yep I cant wait for hoodie and sweat pants season.

Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders.

Miserable

Terrible

Screenshotted

Seaside ? Wildwood? Point Pleasant ? LBI?

Or maybe its right . The next two runs will be key .

Yes

Horrible. I needed it to rain.

Torrential rain here in Brooklyn

I had 1.8 that winter.

2016 was amazing 31 inches of snow ( 27 hours of snow )

Yea prolonged cold will most likely not going to happen especially in the first half of winter. Im fine with that. Dont want suppression depression

How much longer are people going to dismissals what this is showing ? We are getting closer. Maybe this winter will not be as bad as people think.

Too many people are prematurely giving up on winter already.

Happy Meteorological Autumn. The start of the great Ber months .