Saguaro

Gigantic flakes in Harrison, looks like the changeover is imminent. I'd say there's about 6-7" new accumulation, but that's a visual estimate only.

It's remarkable how persistent and reliable the grinch storm is every year in the Dec 20-25 timeframe. During my two decades living in Maine, I can only recall one or two years where we actually had a currier and ives tier white Christmas that was free of said grinch. It almost seems a given that if any significant snow events happen before the 25th, that incurs a debt which must be repaid in torchy rain between the 20 and 25th. If I recall correctly, this anomaly has even become visible in some long term climate records.

Finally some much needed sunshine after 5 days. This past week smacked of a classic warm season "cosmic dildo" event as Tip likes to say. Ridge trying to build in the east gets kneecapped by Atlantic crud which rots for days over the coastal plain before the ridge finally breaks down and the surface front clears it out. Meanwhile those locations to the west of the coastal plain divide torch with sunshine and unseasonable warmth. It did feel like a borderline tropical airmass with dewpoints in the 60s the last few days. Interestingly enough, the lows at IZG during this timeframe have been warmer than the lows back in the Phoenix area with the large trough that's taken over the western half of the country.

Things were far less stressful at the borders before 9/11. Didn't even need a passport back then for either Canada or Mexico. From what I hear, in the US/Canada border towns, during those times they didn't block off all the side streets that crossed the border and the residents of border towns regularly went across on them without hassle. The Escourt station debacle certainly didn't help existing tensions between Quebecois and US residents.

Just a rudimentary knowledge. I'm not well versed in the proper terminologies, but saw how they change once getting past Augusta or so on 95 as well as that drive on 26. In the past I had a friend who used to be in the forest service and pointed these things out to me. Yea it's pretty miserable looking out today.

302 is about a 5 minute drive from Harrison. I'm always going on there for grocery runs in North Conway/Windham as well as to PWM for my flights to/from Phoenix. 26 from Bethel to Errol is interesting too. There's a mountain divide where the rain snow line often sets up in the winter, and which acts as a barrier to marine crud in the warm season. The pines there are also more of the kind upstate and downeast.

I saw cameras and the border patrol does have a presence. I imagine it's a pain for those living in the houses on the Vermont side of QC247 just to leave their driveways. Here you can see a CBP suv at the hilltop watching who drives into Vermont to make sure they stop at the port of entry: The red apartment building is split by the border as well. There's an Irving station in Derby line that was filled with Quebecois getting gas. The price was about 10 cents higher than further down 91 at the next exit, but that's still lower than Quebec gas. The store employees inside were even fluent in French.

Yea that library is actually the building in the second picture. The border runs through the center of it. It was closed when I was there so I wasn't able to look inside. Just down the way in western Stanstead the provincial Quebec route 247 is bisected down the centerline by the border as well. The houses on the right side are in Vermont and the left side Quebec: Facing the other direction, the white and gray house beyond the corner is also split by the border: Much different for sure. I have a picture when I went down to Nogales in southern AZ a while back, I'll have to see if I can find it.

These past few weeks I've been back in Maine again. Last weekend I made the drive from western Maine up to Montreal to see a friend for a few days. The route went through the White Mountains and Vermont before reaching Quebec. Here's a few pictures from the journey. Rt 302 in the White Mountains was packed with tourists looking at the colors: I crossed the border at a town called Derby Line in Vermont. Some of the foliage there was still vibrant. This one is just on the Quebec side: Facing the other direction, an old customs house and post office: On the border looking into the top of Vermont:

Yea it's become pretty clear that this just isn't the year in NE if one is looking for another 2011/2002 etc. Once that pattern change happened at the end of May it's just been lights out. The long range is just shutting any chance down past the middle of July. At that point, how much time is left? In NNE once you reach mid August it's pretty much done. At least the summer temps and storms are reliable out this way, currently at 100 looking to reach 104 this afternoon. It feels like Quebec gets far more reliable convection events than NE. I saw some videos of a tornado there a few years ago that did some pretty serious damage to an apartment complex and surrounding areas.

Monday ended up being a lot nicer than expected. Dark and gloomy in the morning with rain gave way to lots of sun in the afternoon. It seems SNE was stuck in the clouds and rain the whole day. Looking at the forecast, 80s are finally more attainable for the first time of the season. May even make a run for 90 again on Friday. After that, no real sign of any heat, as has been the case since May, and the GFS is continuing its usual parade of troughs drilling into NE. Headed back to AZ today. Forecast changes accordingly from this: Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Tonight: Scattered showers between 9pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 56. Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 79. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Friday: Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90. Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Saturday: Showers likely, mainly after 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83. To this: Today: Sunny, with a high near 105. Tonight: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 87. Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 107. Wednesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 85. Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 104. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 83. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 104. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 83. Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 105. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 84. Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 105. Most of the lows there will actually be close to the daytime highs in ME. Also of note is the differing criteria for "hot." For PSR, that means at least 110. GYX by comparison is a mere 90.

Monsoon pattern has started up. There was a dust storm warning a few days ago as well. KFFZ 270215Z 05010KT 1 1/4SM +RA BKN028 BKN070 OVC090 26/19 A3004 RMK AO2 RAB01 P0020 T02610189

IZG at 93. Solid summer day.

Abundant sunshine out there this morning, with temperatures in the lower 80s. IZG is already upper 80s. Dewpoints were mid 60s but are mixing out already. Forecast is for 90 but we'll see if that actually happens. I'm sure IZG won't have any issue reaching it, but it runs a bit cooler over here with the lakes around. Forecast calls for 80s returning by Wednesday and lasting through the end of the week. It feels like this is a persistent trend no matter what the summer. Even in 1995, outside of that one day in southernmost NE, the record heat was consistently shunted to the south. The only years I can think of which might have been exceptions to this would be 1988, 1999, and 2002. It has moved into western Maine as well. It's weird because it stops right at the 302 crossing of the saco river swamp area in Fryeburg. East of there the trees are normal.

Today's the first solid summer day I've felt since arriving here back on the 6th. It feels a tad humid too but the dewpoints are only upper 50s. I guess I'm still used to the 20s dewpoints in AZ. Temperature is currently in the mid 80s. Headed back to AZ mid week, and with the shift to the monsoon pattern, the dewpoints there will be 50s to mid 60s for the foreseeable future. Lots of bare trees in North Conway and Fryeburg too. I don't know if it's those same bugs that were doing it in SNE the last few years.

Another battle of clouds and sun today, low level marine crud with this onshore flow. Struggling to reach 70. Satellite trend looks like it may clear out better with time.

Yea I should have been more clear with that. I had in mind the classic heat events from summers past, which last 3 or more days. Dewpoints at least mid 60s, daytime highs 90+. I don't really see one or two days of muted, upper 80s to 90 as qualifying, at least not by this time of the season. Perhaps this relentless trend will relax some in the coming weeks, but it's been my observation that more often than not, Junes which turn out like this one lead on to lackluster summers. That's just for this part of NE though. SNE has better chances of getting something unless this turns out like 96, 2000, 2009, or the second half of 2013. Many a time the warm front stalls, keeping ME and the coastal plain of NH/NE MA shut out while SNE and VT can pull off several days of summer.

It reminded me of my years living in socal. We'd get stuck in those May Gray/June Gloom patterns where the onshow flore/marine layer wouldn't budge for several days on end. When it was badly entrenched enough there'd sometimes be what LOX called "reverse clearing," where the immediate coast broke out in sun while inland was boned and never cleared out. That warm front ground to a screeching halt in central NY. Usually they make it to at least the merrimack valley this time of year.

Sunshine finally won the battle. The edge of gloom has receded west into the SE third of New Hampshire. Temps have risen to the lower 70s.

Mixed sun and clouds in western ME, it's gotten up to mid 60s. We're right on the edge between that giant mess that extends back to central NY, and the clear skies in the rest of ME. Quite breezy too.

I just don't think this will be a summer for any kind of heat in NE. I've seen this type of regime settle in for many of the summers of the 2010s and it's all too familiar. There's a burst of heat in May and then a pattern change where the door slams shut for the remainder of the warm season. More often than not, May ends up having the highest daily temperatures of the season. We've even just had the requisite horror show we went through over the weekend which is a staple of these types of summer patterns. Sunday we were in the 40s and lower 50s all day with thick overcast and afternoon rain. Even back in January and February I don't recall any day that chilly and miserable in Phoenix. Another thing of note is how these 23-25c 850 temps moving well into Ontario and Quebec at the moment are absolutely obliterated once they try moving east of the Tug hill longitude. There's even some kind of cyclonic circulation backing into NE from the atlantic while that's happening.

If you're in Bath that is probably the line that came through here in the IZG area a couple hours ago. I believe that is associated with the front itself since it felt like the dewpoints dropped once the sun came back out. It was just getting started when it came through here so nothing other than a few rumbles, some wind and brief bouts of heavy rain before it was done. Yea I believe it came through here too around noon with some weak storms. Crashed temp from near 80 back to mid 60s. It's recovered to mid 70s.

On the satellite it looks like some kind of pre-frontal precip starting up. Not sure where the warm front is at this point, it was already a mess before moving into NNE. I think we're at the "WPC throws up their hands and gives up placing it" phase of it at this point. Still sunny, making a run towards 80 here now and breezy.

Sun has broken out in western ME. Currently low to mid 70s. GYX surprisingly mentioned a possible weak tornado this afternoon in the AFD.

Finally feels like more of a summer airmass out there this morning in the Bridgton ME area. However, as usual the coastal plain is stuck in marine crud. Hopefully we can see some sun before the inevitable cold front barrels through later today. Weekend looks like we're going back to April.