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Everything posted by Saguaro
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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow
Saguaro replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
These past three days, IZG has been warmer than the Phoenix AZ area: 10/12 KIZG: 78 KFFZ: 68 10/13 KIZG: 81 KFFZ: 74 10/14 so far KIZG: 78 KFFZ: 72 -
September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
Saguaro replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
FFW out for nw cumberland and se oxford ME counties. It's pouring like the monsoon storms in AZ right now. -
September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.
Saguaro replied to moneypitmike's topic in New England
A surprisingly nice day today in western ME after it looked to be wall to wall gloom through the weekend. Upper 70s and very breezy. The low marine crap cleared out around noon and the dewpoints mixed down once the wind came up. It's oddly reminiscent of a cold frontal passage even though we're supposed to be in the warm sector. As for the July laments, I have to say that southern AZ went through similar times that month with much above normal precip and well below normal highs. -
oops. For some reason I thought it was you.
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Yea that's what I figured but was motivated to take a look after seeing tamarack's pictures
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I'm back in western ME for a few weeks, very close to Waterford. I drove around there yesterday in the midpoint of the TOR polygon looking for any signs of damage and came up empty for the most part. Chances are it's pretty localized and I just didn't run across anything. I don't know if GYX is planning a survey of the area.
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Saguaro replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
If it weren't for these interruptions from the tropical systems, this could have been an impressive stretch for duration. BTV and Montreal both hit 90s yesterday away from all the clouds. -
August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Saguaro replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Don't forget the heat event in September 2002 which had some upper 90s days, at least in western ME. -
August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Saguaro replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
IZG managed 89.6 today. P&C says it won't get that warm again through the end of the period. Henri is probably going to be a nonevent up that way. -
Semi-retired, still work on some projects here and there. After my first experience living in the southwest for a few years, I never wanted to go back to the New England climate, so I knew this was always going to be my home eventually. I wonder if it will be something that at least tries to salvage the small remainder of summer, or if it ends up more like that horrid July period where NE gets hosed.
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Just checked the P&C for my former western ME location: 60s and low 70s for the entire period. Yeesh. Yea this summer is beyond shot back that way, though that writing was on the wall once July began. I didn't think that that first June heat event would be as hot as it ever got for the season, though some previous seasons in the past have behaved similarly enough that it's by no means unprecedented at this point. I recall getting groceries in North Conway during the warmest day in June and it was pretty legit heat, to the point of me noticing the similarity to my daily experiences in AZ.
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I began noticing that trend in the summer of 2013. That year there was early heat and humidity, then lights out around mid July and the season was finished. Ever since then it seems NE (more so our favorite labradorian portion) has been struggling almost every summer to get sustained heat, and then once August hits it's over. It's even been an unusual year out this way, the monsoon is going gangbusters. Today's been overcast and intermittent light rain and we're going to be some 30 degrees below normal for highs, only mid 70s when our typical high is around 105.
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Another hallmark of a summer that's gone well beyond salvageable. I've seen it before, the ridge sets up in a strategic position upstream (usually somewhere in Canada) and those places bake with true summer conditions for weeks while NE is plagued with constant wet, cool, damp conditions. Then when NE finally catches a break and gets a chance at real summer weather, it gets scuttled by smoke thanks to that persistent upstream ridge that's made things ripe for wildfires.
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I didn't realize there had been five in the last three weeks, insane especially for July. It never ceases to amaze me the numerous ways summer can be thwarted in the northeastern part of NE, and even in the situation where there are no foreseeable ways, a phantom one will be invented.
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Reminds me of the spring of 2006 or 2008 in western ME. Those scenes were commonplace. To this very day there are still some bridges in towns like Sebago and Waterford that were never fixed and the roads turned into permanent dead ends. How many of these so far this month? You know summer's shot when there's more of these in July than April.
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It gives me the summer of 96 kind of feeling. Ever since that last heat event near the end of June it seems it's just been downright horrid for summer in NE. My former haunt in NNE near IZG hasn't gotten nearly the amount of rain SNE has had, but it's still been quite miserable for summer standards - no need to even use AC for 3 weeks. When the PC has no 80s for the entire forecast period in July, you know it's time to throw in the towel and "better luck next year," given how short the season is in that part of NNE. It's not just the gloom, but the constant rain makes going outside miserable because of all the biting bugs. I've noticed through some years of observations that a stronger WAR isn't always the best thing for summer, it seems all the parameters have to line up just right for that to happen, otherwise it ends up inviting the kind of misery of the last few weeks as NE sits in the battleground. The better choice in that case is the constant NW flow with canadian HPs because at least then, while the dewpoints won't be reflective of summer, there will be lots more sunshine. Even here in AZ it's been kind of an odd July, we've been struggling to hit 100 as of late and the other day we could barely manage low 90s.
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Not DV but over in this spot of AZ we've been hitting 110 or thereabouts the last few days. Currently under SVR warning for 70mph winds, we'll see if that one verifies.
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I have much the same sentiments. There was nothing worse than having the weeks near the solstice being torpedoed by days and days of gloom. And the warm season is so short, at least it was in my part of NNE, we had basically a six week window of reliable summer: July 1 to August 15 or thereabouts. Anytime before July 1 is too fraught with the lingering spring risks of backdoor/ULL misery, and once into the second week of August we're getting those strong cold fronts barreling through so it becomes increasingly tough for the summer warmth to hang on. Thus, every day in that timeframe is precious and can be little afforded being stolen away by rain and gloom, the clock is relentlessly ticking. Here in AZ though we don't get quite as long daylight near the solstice, given the lower latitude. The big difference is none of that lingering daylight well into the night because we have no DST, so sunsets are around 7:30.
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Yea, my point wasn't "this happens every July," it was more in reference to the weeks of misery that happen every spring. And most especially in eastern NNE. Often times the BD front/wf can hang up right at the NH/MA border while areas to the NE of that are mired in the murk and shut out of the summer airmass.
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Point taken, it's not a regular occurrence in July but it still happened a handful of times during my years in NNE. Your 4/1 to 5/15 misery window, I would have to change the 5/15 to 6/20 or thereabouts on the coastal plain (south of the mountains) of NNE. SNE escapes it a lot better most of the time.
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Things like this debacle are exactly why I had to get out of new england. It just wears you down after enough time. Even July isn't safe from these type of disasters. IZG currently sitting at 55, egads. I've also noticed the aforementioned trend this year of the score having to be vindictively settled after a round of impressive heat. I haven't been keeping close tabs on the pacific NW, but I wonder if they've had to/will pay in a similar way after that historic run they just had? Back in AZ now and I'll take our 103/83 over that 58/55 misery any day.
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After yesterday's overnight low of 78, IZG dropped to 75 near midnight, one of those "cheap" end of day low temps. Impressively, they're already almost 90 (88) at 9am. Depending on potential cloud issues, 100 might be in play today.
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IZG with the low of 78 overnight, fairly impressive. Been dealing with copious amounts of clouds today that have really put the damper on high temp potential. Upstream satellite shows plenty more en route plus developing storms in NH. This is one of the many typical unforeseen flies in the ointment that work to derail heat waves from either verifying (3 day rule) or realizing their full potential in this region - it's always a constant battle with many moving parts. Still an impressive day despite the issues. Temperature has been going between low to mid 90s. Not anything close to IZG's 98, that area and bordering north conway have a better ability to maximize heat. 12z GFS already hard at work to minimize next week's heat potential. Weekend still looks dicey but better than earlier runs. I'll be back in AZ where monsoon season's gotten underway, so we'll be getting the 102/83 type days with afternoon and evening storms.
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The last time that sticks out in my mind for high overnight mins, at least in this area of NNE was the evening before the day of that tornado outbreak in 2011. The night prior we were still well into the 80s near midnight. 2011 was quite the memorable summer, kicked off by that outbreak, then the triple digit heat in July, followed by Irene in August.
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Looks like the typical new england spring atlantic special type temps, but not in the usual coastal plain places. What a disaster.