George001
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Everything posted by George001
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Huh? I thought the Euro looked better early on. There was more ridging out west, the runs with more ridging out west had a more consolidated ULL, farther north track and a stronger low.
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Looks good for us. Looks like it gets going a little later than last run, but is about to undergo rapid cyclogenesis as it moves ENE.
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Nao and epo are negative. Pna is too, but there has been an increase in western ridges on recent runs. It looks like the primary holding on longer was due to a random vort phasing in out west and then ramming into the block.
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Shit, we lost the Canadian. It has a SWFE now that really sucks. Hopefully the models are doing the typical lose it in the mid range and then bring the storm back thing.
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Yeah looks tucked. That’s not great, a little tucked is ok but over Central PA is way too inland for us. Hopefully the way inland lows disappear the next few runs. Even my snow goggles aren’t strong enough to make this run look good.
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Like you said, go to the grocery store.
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I thought this event was cooked but when there’s 9-10 inches being shown in the jackpot areas that’s not a bad storm at all. Lets get that 6+ to expand into eastern mass.
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It was strong in the Midwest but it elongated and weakened. It is struggling with the pattern
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Weird 500mb evolution, the gfs is stringing the energy out.
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Wow that’s an insane gradient
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I think this with more eastern extension will be a good analog (emphasis on the eastern extension part).
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The crazy thing is after this threat there’s more. There is another threat gearing up day 10 on the Euro. It’s not a frigid pattern, but it’s a cold enough and stormy one with lots of chances on the models.
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Nice
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Euro isn’t out that far on tropical tidbits, how does it look? I saw on other boards that it is more of a hugger track so it starts as rain. However, the low gets very strong, down to 982 mb over around Philly.
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As a weenie, I see the block as Gandalf and he says “You shall not pass” to the low as it approaches a certain latitude. If Gandalf tells you “You shall not pass”, you LISTEN to him, because if you don’t he beats you over the head with his stick. The low is smart, it understands this so when Gandalf tells it “You shall not pass”, it dips.
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Even if it does tuck a bit, if the low strengthens enough it will dynamically cool the column. There is a lot of energy around so I think the low will strengthen a lot (like 0z Canadian last night), which creates more room for error with regards to the track. If it deepens to the 970s or 960s the rain snow line could potentially crash right to or even east of the low. The epo is also raging negative so there should be plenty of cold air around.
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Agree. It can be a hugger but running that far inland with a strong block? Nah.
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The gefs mean moved way north, at least 3-400 miles north of the previous run.
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Another nod to the Euro and Canadian
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A good rule of thumb for rapidly strengthening upper lows that Bernie Rayno mentioned in his videos is every closed contour means an additional foot of snow. The past few runs both the Canadian and Euro have had at least 2 closed contours, with some Euro runs having 3, and the 0z Canadian having 5! yes, I know the 0z Canadian is probably overdone, but the fact that batshit insane solutions with 5 closed contours are even showing up at all says a lot about how strong this storm is expected to be.
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What the hell is the 6z gfs doing? It looks like the other whiff runs at first but then it looks like a new low is forming. Then the new low pulls the ots low back in and absorbs it. Whatever drugs the gfs is on I want some of that shit!
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I hope the El Niño stays weak next winter
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Miller B pattern
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Gfs went from this to out to sea in just a few days. It’s completely lost.
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Euro looks great
