Mount Joy Snowman

My .2” of sleet and ice accretion melted down to .49” liquid. You can all rest easy now.

Yeah probably shouldn't have said shocked, as I’ve always touted the strength of CAD and how it gets under-modeled. Still, thought we’d at least get to upper 30s or 40, especially down my way, and that didn’t even happen. Even when you know its tendencies, CAD can still surprise ha.

I’m still trying to fully figure out our new spot over here on the east end of West Hempfield Township. I’m equidistance from Mount Joy and Lancaster (about 5 miles to each as the crow flies). I also have a wee bit elevation on my side now, as we’re kind of on the northern base of a ridge line.

Lock it the F in!

I am shocked by how much we've been locked in the cold over here. Been stuck around 35 all afternoon. I owe @canderson an apology for guaranteeing a full melt-off ha.

This is pretty bullish for WPC......

Ukie on board for Tuesday as well. We may get damn near full agreement on the 12z suite. Paging Euro.....

In terms of just sheer activity, this seven day period from this Saturday through next Saturday should be mega memorable.

Canadian looks like it will answer the bell as well.

Still a LOT to finesse five days out but a great start to 12z.

GFS is an absolute stunner. My pants are tightening by the minute.

Yeah I was worried at first but it played out just fine. Would work well for most everyone.

It will melt just fine. Things already softening up.

Some moderate ZR passing through here now but expect the transition to plain rain imminently as the temp is sitting right at 32 and creeping upwards.

Were any of my southern friends awake during the overnight hours to see if we had a brief period of snow to start things off or was it straight sleet from the get-go? As of now, I'm leaning towards just putting IP/ZR as my precip types in my spreadsheet, with the caveat that some plain rain is yet to come.

Only about a tenth of an inch of combined sleet and ice out there but it's enough to have everything caked. Schools have closed. A bit underwhelming but we have a more potent batch approaching the area, likely as freezing rain. We'll see what that does as the temp hovers at 31. Glad to hear next week's event is still showing up nicely.

I do. I root for maximum winter, in all its forms, at all times. Yes, I'm a psycho haha.

18z HRRR is a nice sloppy glacial mess that amounts to this for total qpf......

Man, mid to late next week has the chance to be absolutely wild, with just wave after wave passing through. Rest up fellas.

Low of 27. Time to reel in some storms.

I've been pouring over the skew-T's and I think that subfreezing layer will be at least a few thousand feet thick for the bulk of the event. I'm putting my chips on this being a pretty big sleet bomb. I expect to be woken up to the not-so-sweet sound of pingers during the predawn hours.

Yeah the roads are going to be nightmarish Thursday morning. Usually in events like this it takes until around lunch time until things soften up enough to be passable. Hopefully people get the message.

It's still there, just quite narrow, but yeah, I was never fully bought in on the idea of multiple inches of snow during the day tomorrow.

I was just talking about this with my buddy who has a cabin up near Galeton that has only been snow-free for one or two days since Thanksgiving. They are still snow covered but barely. It's been an amazing run.

I just keep thinking in my head over and over about the coach/quarterback comparison and have a hard time getting past it. Andy/Pat vs Nick/Jalen feels like such a mismatch, especially with the extra week to prepare. The eagles Oline could set the tone but like Canderson said I think they’ll be hell bent on stopping Barkley and force Hurts to beat them. Can he? We shall see but I have my doubts. Most of my friends are Eagles fans so I’ll be rooting for them, and the Chiefs will start losing some of these games eventually but my head says 24-21 Chiefs. Ugh.