Mount Joy Snowman

Harrisburg's record snowfall for March 12 is 4.1" in 1959. Can we get there!?

An interesting quirk on the 12z GFS for tomorrow morning's event......even when the graphic panels are showing snow for my area (moderate to heavy at times), when you check the skew-T's for the same timestamps it lists likely precip type as rain. Not sure what to make of that.

Yeah I'm heading up to the state wrestling championships in Hershey on Saturday morning and was telling the guys when we go into the Giant Center there could be a warm rain falling and when we come out a few hours later there could be a cold wind-driven snow ha. Again, March.

The FV3 seems to be picking up on the temp issues down this way and the snow map responds accordingly, similar to the HRRR.......

.08" of rain yesterday with a low of 37, currently at 39. Looks like LNS recorded a 59mph gust with the frontal passage. As for tomorrow morning's snow chances down this way, I'm growing more pessimistic by the hour. Temperature issues abound. The lower levels of the column aren't all that cold and the surface temps are downright problematic. As I said yesterday, dew points at or above freezing don't exactly scream efficient accumulation haha. This is to say nothing of daytime solar effects and lighter intensity periods. Ratios will likely be abysmal. MAG went over most of this yesterday, but for us in the southern reaches of the LSV the issues are mounting. Elevation will be key and I ain't got it. Going with an O/U of 1" for my back yard. As always, I hope to be wrong. Good luck to all but keep expectations in check. Toodles.

Not much rain here but some serious gusts. It’s really roaring outside, front means business. Had some friends record gusts near 50mph on home stations. Very impressive.

Yep. Good summary. All the standard March caveats apply.

As for Wednesday, with dew points hovering in the low to mid 30s throughout the event, I don't expect very efficient accumulation or many issues on any paved surfaces. I do think some in our area could see a couple, to perhaps a few, inches on north-facing decks and grassy surfaces and whatnot. Looking forward to hopefully putting something in the books for March. All snow is good snow.

I briefly touched 76 but am back down to 72 now. LNS hit 77 but THV and MDT haven't been above 72, with rain on the doorstep. Interesting.

No I think you have the right of it. I was just going off of the NWS hour-by-hour graphs that have MDT still at 49 at 11pm and then 46 at midnight, which would qualify as a close cut. However, they're probably still playing catch-up with the models and I expect the cold front to sweep through a bit quicker than that, as they often do.

Yeah I saw that. It looks like we'll just sneak below the max min record (48 from 1921) right before midnight tonight, could be close but the front should be deep enough by us at that point that temps should be dropping quick. Looking at the five minute observations from MDT yesterday is pretty remarkable. The temp rose 22 degrees between noon and 1pm (from 50 to 72), including one five minute period where it went up six degrees ha. This aligns with what many of us witnessed yesterday. I remember at one point seemingly blinking before checking my weather station to see it had gone up like ten degrees. I thought something may have been wrong with it but nope, just one of those days where the airmass was in place and the temp was ready to pop upon clouds clearing out. Good stuff.

I made it to 73 today. MDT topped out at 74, breaking the previous daily record of 72 from 1946.

Haha they really do, whereas some of us just call it March. Low of 24 here last night. An interesting few weeks ahead.

For those bantering about the possible high temps on Sunday/Moday, the records for Harrisburg for March 6 and 7 are potentially reachable, at a soft 72 and 74, respectively. Also, Bradford hit 2 last night, Yahtzee!

I bottomed out at 15, which I believe is a good bit lower than what NWS was forecasting for my area.

I'm at 42 and received .01" of rain last night. I see March as being pretty typical of most March's, that being up and down with alternating air masses briefly taking the reigns. All in all, a lot of warmth and chill with the aggregate probably a little above average. And oh yeah, little to no snow for most

It really is. I'm at 53 but the light breeze and bright sunshine make it feel very nice. I even went for a run, something I very rarely do haha.

The way I think about the off-hour runs is kind of like this.....they are still better than the prior runs simply because they are six additional hours down the line (i.e. closer to the events occurring), so time is on their side; however, the gain in predicative ability from 6z to 12z is greater than the gain from 12z to 18z. Make sense?

I could be off on this but I believe that, outside of special circumstances, the balloons are only sent up for 0z and 12z. Better initialization. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.

Surprisingly enough MDT got down to 33 last night, which was my low as well.

Nice timing on both of our posts haha. But yeah I had seen that earlier about MU's departure being so much greater. Feels like we had a few potent boundaries draped across the area with tight gradients that could have accounted for the stark difference from SE to NW.

MDT ended the month of February 2.5 degrees above avg., .33" above avg. precip, and 7.4" below avg. snowfall.

Haha well thank you sir you are too kind. That is pretty damn remarkable. Would a betting man then say that they could, perhaps should, be in for a big March/April?

I tallied .61” of liquid, off of which I received a whopping .1” sleet and .1” ice accretion. Lovely.

Hail, you mean hail